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There's no world in which 15% of Italy is going to be in hospital with nCoV-19. Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of

by btilly 7y ago

There's no world in which 15% of Italy is going to be in hospital with nCoV-19. Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION in the metro area. That's (using the lower bound) 0.7% of which only a 5000 were severe or critical, or 0.045%. You are continuing to not understand causes. The cause of the spread stopping in Wuhan was because China put 46 million people on a fairly draconian lockdown. For a month now. Streets are empty, people don't go to work, etc, etc, etc. Unless and until a large fraction of the world does the same, the rest of the world should expect exponential growth. Not the exponential decline that Wuhan is experiencing. Furthermore if the rest of the world does not, eventually China will be faced with having to choose between the nightmare of permanent economic disruption due to quarantining the rest of the world or the nightmare of mass casualties from letting the disease run wild. And I guarantee that if your life was implemented by similar public health measures, you'd be screaming bloody murder.

arcticbull 7y ago
> You are continuing to not understand causes. I'm making two separate arguments. (1) the disease is fairly well contained at the moment due to the actions of the CCP in China -- cases dropped from 80K to 17K there (and global cases are down to 42K from a peak of 58K) and that's good numbers; (2) even if the world got it, it wouldn't be nearly as big a deal as the preppers, doom-sayers and the breathless media are making it out to be. Through a combination of actually pretty low mortality rates and the fact coronaviruses are well enough known (SARS, MERS and of course 15% of the common cold) that a vaccine and potential treatment has a big head start. 61 million folks got swine flu in America and 12,000 people died here alone. So far, 500 people have nCoV-19 and 27 people have died. Wash your hands, don't lick things outside you shouldn't be licking, stay home if you're sick, and we'll be past this in a few weeks.
- btilly 7y ago
  On #1, the fact that it is under control in China does not mean that it is under control globally. Nor does there seem to be an appetite for the measures that would fix that. #2 on current data, I said that the number of potential casualties is on the same order as WW 2. Another poster gave numbers showing that this is true even with the optimistic end of current numbers. You have supplied no data to counter those numbers. Nor have acknowledged that tens of millions dead is worthy of concern. About the rest, my sister and niece are immunocompromised. I have always had weak lungs. My father-in-law is 89. “We” might be past the epidemic but the odds are high that someone close to me will be dead. I doubt that I am alone. You are not exactly coming across as being full of sympathy for entirely predictable tragedy.

by btilly 7y ago

arcticbull 7y ago

> You are continuing to not understand causes. I'm making two separate arguments. (1) the disease is fairly well contained at the moment due to the actions of the CCP in China -- cases dropped from 80K to 17K there (and global cases are down to 42K from a peak of 58K) and that's good numbers; (2) even if the world got it, it wouldn't be nearly as big a deal as the preppers, doom-sayers and the breathless media are making it out to be. Through a combination of actually pretty low mortality rates and the fact coronaviruses are well enough known (SARS, MERS and of course 15% of the common cold) that a vaccine and potential treatment has a big head start. 61 million folks got swine flu in America and 12,000 people died here alone. So far, 500 people have nCoV-19 and 27 people have died. Wash your hands, don't lick things outside you shouldn't be licking, stay home if you're sick, and we'll be past this in a few weeks.

btilly 7y ago
On #1, the fact that it is under control in China does not mean that it is under control globally. Nor does there seem to be an appetite for the measures that would fix that. #2 on current data, I said that the number of potential casualties is on the same order as WW 2. Another poster gave numbers showing that this is true even with the optimistic end of current numbers. You have supplied no data to counter those numbers. Nor have acknowledged that tens of millions dead is worthy of concern. About the rest, my sister and niece are immunocompromised. I have always had weak lungs. My father-in-law is 89. “We” might be past the epidemic but the odds are high that someone close to me will be dead. I doubt that I am alone. You are not exactly coming across as being full of sympathy for entirely predictable tragedy.