5 ms·
Well, depends on the number of cases and the effected area. If Milan is affected in Italy, you are guaranteed the virus will spread anywhere, it's a key place a
by Curzel 7y ago
Well, depends on the number of cases and the effected area.
If Milan is affected in Italy, you are guaranteed the virus will spread anywhere, it's a key place after all.
There is also a psychological factor to count in of course...
Social and ALL other media have been flooded with the virus 24/7 since the first confirmed case.
It generates good views, everyone wants a piece of that, and now we have this nation-wide phicosys
- atleta 7y agoI wouldn't call it a psychosis, because in this case people are right. If you look at the numbers [1] it went 10x in 10 days in Italy. Despite the counter measures. Now it's only 7.3k if the efficiency of the counter measures don't increase, it will be 73k in 10 days, 730k in 20 and probably 7M in a month. With 20% requiring hospitalization. Which simply cannot be managed at this scale. (Probably not even at the 730k mark.) [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
- soneil 7y agoThe hospitalisation part really is key here. At this point stopping it really isn't on the cards. We need to slow it enough that hospitals can keep up. 7M people catching it next month, vs 7M people catching it over the span of a year, are two very different 7M's. The rate is far more problematic than the actual number.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoWhy does everyone keep saying stopping it is impossible. It is literally happening in front of us in China.
- llamataboot 7y agoThere aren't many countries with the capabilities of China in that regard. Though ones that get out front much earlier (SKorea, Japan mostly so far, Vietnam) seem to be doing alright
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoHonestly I think stopping this thing is a huge challenge. But I think it is a challenge most countries are up to, once they care about it enough. But it seems like no one is very good at responding to this virus before it becomes a crisis.
- JoeAltmaier 7y agoHonestly we are more careful with cattle and pets, than with people. It's going to be hard to change the entitled attitudes. Nobody can stop me from visiting anywhere I want!
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoIt's going to be hard but if Italy is any guide we will manage it after it becomes a catastrophe.
- JoeAltmaier 7y agoTrouble is, once its a catastrophe, its too late to put the cat back in the bag?
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoWhy do we keep circling back to this? It is/was a catastrophe in Wuhan, and the cat is reluctantly being forced back into the bag. By existence, it is not too late. See my earlier comment in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22532892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22532892
- JoeAltmaier 7y agoBecause its here in my town now. Not really 'back in the bag'. Maybe I'm just sensitive, but the US total went up 50% yesterday. And yeah Wuhan says they've got it under control. We'll see.
- cellular 7y agoI don't feel it was transmitted 10x in ten days. Those people were already infected. Otherwise, you'd have to wait a couple weeks for them to become symptomatic to know to test them. (Unless they are testing everybody, and the 10x included people that weren't symptomatic).
- atleta 7y agoYou are right, they were infected a few days before (I think 6.6 on average). But still, the growth was 10x in ten days as you can see on the graphs. It's just that the measurements are always a few days behind the real numbers. In other words, there is a delay in the system, but it does not change the shape of the graph, it simply shifts it right (towards the future) on the time axis.