3 ms·

I regularly put a risk / loss / impact assessment into my issue tracker tickets - it's not the tool support is not there, it's that a) everyone else needs to d

I regularly put a risk / loss / impact assessment into my issue tracker tickets - it's not the tool support is not there, it's that a) everyone else needs to do this across the board b) it's still just a guess - normalising my guess and you're guess is hard

jacques_chester 7y ago
Tool support would ideally both of those problems easier. But good estimating is in itself fundamentally a "system 2" activity.
- malenos 7y ago
  system 2: is that a reference to 'no silver bullet'?
  - elbear 7y ago
    I assume it's a reference to Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow".
    - malenos 7y ago
      Thanks
mindcrime 7y ago
b) it's still just a guess - normalising my guess and you're guess is hard True, but that's where the calibrated probability assessment stuff comes in. If you can at least establish obviously correct (if very course grained) upper and lower bounds for estimates and then gradually shrink them in until you aren't confident doing so anymore, you have something at least slightly better than a complete guess. And if you can choose the correct distribution that the actual values would vary over, then you can use Hubbard's approach using a Monte Carlo simulation, and get some insight into likely outcomes. No, it's not a perfect approach, but it gives you a little something to hang your hat on.