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I think the sequence of choices is what matters most. First they ‘quarantined’ Lombardia and some surrounding provinces. This looked nonsensical, or worse, as

I think the sequence of choices is what matters most. First they ‘quarantined’ Lombardia and some surrounding provinces. This looked nonsensical, or worse, as the contagion spread was nationwide already. Not two full days after, they are extending the restrictive measures to the whole of Italy. The net result is to have scared back home a lot of people working or studying in Lombardia, thereby easing the potential burden on the collapsing regional health system. The restrictive measures themselves are hardly enforceable, with some very important exceptions, e.g. schools. Hopefully, they would induce some change in habits. I am from Milano, and my daily life has certainly been affected. I left the city two weeks ago. It was easy for me, though, as I can distance teach and I have a place in the mountains.

srg0 7y ago
The new decree is probably a response to many potentially contagious people fleeing to the south. As I see it, if the draft version of the previous decree were not leaked, the final version would not cause so many people to run away. Frankly, I expected that these measures will be extended to the entire country not later than by the end of the week. We're still in the exponential growth phase.
- giovan-ni 7y ago
  You are right about the leakage. The final decree places no restrictions on traveling back to residence, and even admits self-certification of other reasons for traveling. I am not sure you are right in assuming the leakage was unintended, though. If they wanted people to run, the effective way was to force a choice under the imminent and vague threat of being trapped in the ‘red zone’.
theNJR 7y ago
You left really early. What indicators were you looking at to make the call? Is it just you? In a major west coast city and trying to think through when to leave. Too early better than too late but I don’t have a cabin in the mountains so it will be a significant cost to hide out for a month.
- giovan-ni 7y ago
  It was part coincidence. I had a week without teaching duties. But I packed for a long stay. What convinced me was the carefree attitude of many. Two examples: "Nothing to worry about, it is just a little more than a regular flu" (Attilio Fontana, Governor of Lombardia) "#milanononsiferma" (Giuseppe Sala, Major of Milano)

srg0 7y ago

The new decree is probably a response to many potentially contagious people fleeing to the south. As I see it, if the draft version of the previous decree were not leaked, the final version would not cause so many people to run away. Frankly, I expected that these measures will be extended to the entire country not later than by the end of the week. We're still in the exponential growth phase.

giovan-ni 7y ago
You are right about the leakage. The final decree places no restrictions on traveling back to residence, and even admits self-certification of other reasons for traveling. I am not sure you are right in assuming the leakage was unintended, though. If they wanted people to run, the effective way was to force a choice under the imminent and vague threat of being trapped in the ‘red zone’.

theNJR 7y ago

You left really early. What indicators were you looking at to make the call? Is it just you? In a major west coast city and trying to think through when to leave. Too early better than too late but I don’t have a cabin in the mountains so it will be a significant cost to hide out for a month.

giovan-ni 7y ago
It was part coincidence. I had a week without teaching duties. But I packed for a long stay. What convinced me was the carefree attitude of many. Two examples: "Nothing to worry about, it is just a little more than a regular flu" (Attilio Fontana, Governor of Lombardia) "#milanononsiferma" (Giuseppe Sala, Major of Milano)