5 ms·

The fatality rate of Italy is scary high. I read the reason is that they have such a high percentage of elderly.

by cleandreams 7y ago

cm2187 7y ago
...or not a very good coverage in term of testing.
- napolux 7y ago
  We’re testing more than any country in Europe (or the USA)
  - zaroth 7y ago
    A useful metric is the number of tests which are coming back positive. I’d say if it’s 3% or higher then you are testing limited.
    - bonzini 7y ago
      It's 10%. Not unexpected since only people with symptoms are being tested.
      - zaroth 7y ago
        10% is extremely high. Yeah, that shows that they are severely test restricted and the actual infection rate is significantly higher. That tells me that case count will grow at a rate of test rate * 10% for days to come even if the actual spread has peaked. IMO, and I’m not sure why more people aren’t saying this, the hospitalization rate in the general population under typical exposure rates is probably closer to 1% than it is 10%, and so just multiply the severe or critical cases by 100x to see the general population infection rate. And if severe case count is not growing, than neither was the infection rate ~7 days ago.
Melting_Harps 7y ago
> The fatality rate of Italy is scary high. I read the reason is that they have such a high percentage of elderly. And has one of the lowest fertility rates [1] in not just the EU, but in the World. Odd considering how just a generation ago having a large catholic, and poor, family was one of the most prominent qualities of Italian life. They keep trying to monetarily incentivize increasing birth-rates, much like Japan, but its not working. I often wondered what implications all of these austerity measures and under-employment in regards to population growth would look like in the West, and it seems to be following the Japanese model quite well. With that said, this is incredibly terrifying; the implications are looking dire. 1: https://www.thelocal.it/20160517/why-italys-facing-a-birth-rate-apocalypse https://www.thelocal.it/20160517/why-italys-facing-a-birth-r...
- thefz 7y ago
  >just a generation ago having a large catholic, and poor, family was one of the most prominent qualities of Italian life. I would not say so, no. That's speculation, this has not been true even for the south for a long time now. The only large, poor families you see are from immigrants nowadays.
  - Melting_Harps 7y ago
    What is a long time? I lived and worked in the Central part in Emilia Romanga, an affluent albeit largely communist part of Italy, and I saw it amongst farming families, although most had since abandoned Catholicism. Many of the older children had left for Germany, Switzerland, Austria or Holland for work to send money back home. But, and this was just my personal experience since I was in the EU during the financial crisis; Italy, much like Spain and the other so called PIIGS, is a country plagued with underemployment and little to no social mobility for those under the age of mid 30s for the most part. And while I cannot attest to the number of their siblings or their religious beliefs, to say Italy itself is not is rather difficult to believe given my first hand experiences. I remember walking down the piazzas during the day to set up shop in the central parts of town, and the amount of large groups of 20 year olds (I was in my 20s back then too) were there day and night drinking in public was astonishing.
bonzini 7y ago
Yes, it's Simpson's paradox. Fatality rate is lower in Italy than in China for all individual age ranges, but the overall rate is higher in Italy because of the older population.
- remarkEon 7y ago
  Visualization (one of my favorites): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
toyg 7y ago
Somewhat ironically, this virus might be great news for the overall demographics: couples are now stuck at home with nothing to do, NYC-blackout-style; I fully expect an increase in births (and divorces) in the next 12 months.
- Rapzid 7y ago
  A much younger and more productive workforce..
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
rvp-x 7y ago
There are reports that they have a shortage of ventilators, so a lot of patients that could be saved are dying.
- bonzini 7y ago
  We're not yet at that phase, but it's why the lockdown was needed.

The fatality rate of Italy is scary high. I read the reason is that they have such a high percentage of elderly.

cm2187 7y ago

...or not a very good coverage in term of testing.

napolux 7y ago
We’re testing more than any country in Europe (or the USA)
- zaroth 7y ago
  A useful metric is the number of tests which are coming back positive. I’d say if it’s 3% or higher then you are testing limited.
  - bonzini 7y ago
    It's 10%. Not unexpected since only people with symptoms are being tested.
    - zaroth 7y ago
      10% is extremely high. Yeah, that shows that they are severely test restricted and the actual infection rate is significantly higher. That tells me that case count will grow at a rate of test rate * 10% for days to come even if the actual spread has peaked. IMO, and I’m not sure why more people aren’t saying this, the hospitalization rate in the general population under typical exposure rates is probably closer to 1% than it is 10%, and so just multiply the severe or critical cases by 100x to see the general population infection rate. And if severe case count is not growing, than neither was the infection rate ~7 days ago.

Melting_Harps 7y ago

> The fatality rate of Italy is scary high. I read the reason is that they have such a high percentage of elderly. And has one of the lowest fertility rates [1] in not just the EU, but in the World. Odd considering how just a generation ago having a large catholic, and poor, family was one of the most prominent qualities of Italian life. They keep trying to monetarily incentivize increasing birth-rates, much like Japan, but its not working. I often wondered what implications all of these austerity measures and under-employment in regards to population growth would look like in the West, and it seems to be following the Japanese model quite well. With that said, this is incredibly terrifying; the implications are looking dire. 1: https://www.thelocal.it/20160517/why-italys-facing-a-birth-rate-apocalypse https://www.thelocal.it/20160517/why-italys-facing-a-birth-r...

thefz 7y ago
>just a generation ago having a large catholic, and poor, family was one of the most prominent qualities of Italian life. I would not say so, no. That's speculation, this has not been true even for the south for a long time now. The only large, poor families you see are from immigrants nowadays.
- Melting_Harps 7y ago
  What is a long time? I lived and worked in the Central part in Emilia Romanga, an affluent albeit largely communist part of Italy, and I saw it amongst farming families, although most had since abandoned Catholicism. Many of the older children had left for Germany, Switzerland, Austria or Holland for work to send money back home. But, and this was just my personal experience since I was in the EU during the financial crisis; Italy, much like Spain and the other so called PIIGS, is a country plagued with underemployment and little to no social mobility for those under the age of mid 30s for the most part. And while I cannot attest to the number of their siblings or their religious beliefs, to say Italy itself is not is rather difficult to believe given my first hand experiences. I remember walking down the piazzas during the day to set up shop in the central parts of town, and the amount of large groups of 20 year olds (I was in my 20s back then too) were there day and night drinking in public was astonishing.

bonzini 7y ago

Yes, it's Simpson's paradox. Fatality rate is lower in Italy than in China for all individual age ranges, but the overall rate is higher in Italy because of the older population.

remarkEon 7y ago
Visualization (one of my favorites): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

toyg 7y ago

Somewhat ironically, this virus might be great news for the overall demographics: couples are now stuck at home with nothing to do, NYC-blackout-style; I fully expect an increase in births (and divorces) in the next 12 months.

Rapzid 7y ago
A much younger and more productive workforce..
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

rvp-x 7y ago

There are reports that they have a shortage of ventilators, so a lot of patients that could be saved are dying.

bonzini 7y ago
We're not yet at that phase, but it's why the lockdown was needed.