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China shut down it's economy for two months. Mecca is closed. 8% of Iranian parliament was infected as of last week and two were dead. Democratic nations are pu

China shut down it's economy for two months. Mecca is closed. 8% of Iranian parliament was infected as of last week and two were dead. Democratic nations are putting millions of people on lockdown overnight (see Lombardy, Italy and the 2AM press conference). This isn't the god damn flu and its irresponsible to say so at this point.

arcticbull 7y ago
It is the flu, what's different is not the threat but our response to it. So far there have been 95,000 flu deaths since October and just shy of 4,000 nCoV-19 but nobody's shutting down China, Mecca or Italy over influenza A.
- btilly 7y ago
  It is the flu, what's different is not the threat but our response to it. At current mortality rates, if this infects a good chunk of the world then we are talking about as many people dying worldwide as died during WW II. Making future projections based on past deaths without considering the appropriate epidemiological model is like being in a car hurtling at a brick wall and saying, "We will be fine, none of us are hurt yet!" It is literally the same category of mistake.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    No, it's not, because the data shows us that the mortality rates are low. The sensationalist numbers reported by the media are downright negligent. Yes, in Italy, we're seeing 4% mortality rates because the folks there have on average 3X as many co-morbid conditions.
    - allovernow 7y ago
      Yeah, that's why Italy just locked down the entire country. This is the first time in recent history that the media has not been sensationalizing anything, and actually has been underreporting the danger, after ignoring the outbreak in China for a month. >because the folks there have on average 3X as many co-morbid conditions Except they're also reporting a non negligible number of young people without comorbidies requiring hospitalization. The death rate is about to skyrocket because the hospitals are reaching capacity. Even in Lombardy, which has one of some of better healthcare infrastructure, things are grave. No nation on Earth has nearly enough surge capacity to a handle 5-15% hospitalization rate which includes people in their late 20s (though rare).
      - arcticbull 7y ago
        You think this is the one time the media isn't sensationalizing anything? Are you sure that's not just because it aligns with your preconceived notions? Again, things are bad in Italy, yes, because the north is full of old folks with comorbid conditions. There's no world in which 15% of Italy is going to be in hospital with nCoV-19. Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION in the metro area. That's (using the lower bound) 0.7% of which only a 5000 were severe or critical, or 0.045%. A far cry for 15%. You appear to be off by 3-4 orders of magnitude.
        allovernow 7y ago
        >Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION You are grossly misinformed if you think that number is anywhere near correct. For a multitude of reasons - people weren't being tested, test kits ran out, hospitals turned people away, cause of death listed as pneumonia, bodies burned without being tested. The Chinese numbers are CCP PR bullshit. Once again they would not shut down the entire GDP for two months over something so benign. They would not close down Mecca - the holiest site in the world for 1-2 billion people - over something so benign. We'll all find out soon enough. The US is quickly approaching the high derivative portion of the exponential curve.
        arcticbull 7y ago
        So you're refuting my WHO data with ... speculation that the CCP was lying and other anecdotes? The WHO was overwhelmingly positive in their report about the CCP's willingness to participate and make the tough decisions necessary to contain the virus. China had 81K cases, and they're down to 17K. That's good progress.
        btilly 7y ago
        Please. The reality of the reported numbers are sufficient reason for the various actions that have been taken. There is no need to assume conspiracy and coverup. There is doubly no need to tell people who are using the most widely reported numbers that they are grossly uninformed.
    - nostrademons 7y ago
      If you run the math with some of the most optimistic mortality rates (0.7%) and total rates of infection (30%), you still end up 23M deaths, roughly the total number of military deaths from WW2.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
  - asdff 7y ago
    We don't have a mortality rate because we don't have an understanding about the amount of cases that go unreported.

arcticbull 7y ago

It is the flu, what's different is not the threat but our response to it. So far there have been 95,000 flu deaths since October and just shy of 4,000 nCoV-19 but nobody's shutting down China, Mecca or Italy over influenza A.

btilly 7y ago
It is the flu, what's different is not the threat but our response to it. At current mortality rates, if this infects a good chunk of the world then we are talking about as many people dying worldwide as died during WW II. Making future projections based on past deaths without considering the appropriate epidemiological model is like being in a car hurtling at a brick wall and saying, "We will be fine, none of us are hurt yet!" It is literally the same category of mistake.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  No, it's not, because the data shows us that the mortality rates are low. The sensationalist numbers reported by the media are downright negligent. Yes, in Italy, we're seeing 4% mortality rates because the folks there have on average 3X as many co-morbid conditions.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    Yeah, that's why Italy just locked down the entire country. This is the first time in recent history that the media has not been sensationalizing anything, and actually has been underreporting the danger, after ignoring the outbreak in China for a month. >because the folks there have on average 3X as many co-morbid conditions Except they're also reporting a non negligible number of young people without comorbidies requiring hospitalization. The death rate is about to skyrocket because the hospitals are reaching capacity. Even in Lombardy, which has one of some of better healthcare infrastructure, things are grave. No nation on Earth has nearly enough surge capacity to a handle 5-15% hospitalization rate which includes people in their late 20s (though rare).
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      You think this is the one time the media isn't sensationalizing anything? Are you sure that's not just because it aligns with your preconceived notions? Again, things are bad in Italy, yes, because the north is full of old folks with comorbid conditions. There's no world in which 15% of Italy is going to be in hospital with nCoV-19. Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION in the metro area. That's (using the lower bound) 0.7% of which only a 5000 were severe or critical, or 0.045%. A far cry for 15%. You appear to be off by 3-4 orders of magnitude.
      - allovernow 7y ago
        >Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION You are grossly misinformed if you think that number is anywhere near correct. For a multitude of reasons - people weren't being tested, test kits ran out, hospitals turned people away, cause of death listed as pneumonia, bodies burned without being tested. The Chinese numbers are CCP PR bullshit. Once again they would not shut down the entire GDP for two months over something so benign. They would not close down Mecca - the holiest site in the world for 1-2 billion people - over something so benign. We'll all find out soon enough. The US is quickly approaching the high derivative portion of the exponential curve.
        arcticbull 7y ago
        So you're refuting my WHO data with ... speculation that the CCP was lying and other anecdotes? The WHO was overwhelmingly positive in their report about the CCP's willingness to participate and make the tough decisions necessary to contain the virus. China had 81K cases, and they're down to 17K. That's good progress.
        btilly 7y ago
        Please. The reality of the reported numbers are sufficient reason for the various actions that have been taken. There is no need to assume conspiracy and coverup. There is doubly no need to tell people who are using the most widely reported numbers that they are grossly uninformed.
  - nostrademons 7y ago
    If you run the math with some of the most optimistic mortality rates (0.7%) and total rates of infection (30%), you still end up 23M deaths, roughly the total number of military deaths from WW2.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- asdff 7y ago
  We don't have a mortality rate because we don't have an understanding about the amount of cases that go unreported.