3 ms·

On the contrary the death rate in Germany is almost 0%. The median age for those that have passed in Italy is ~81. Most of the US deaths currently were from an

On the contrary the death rate in Germany is almost 0%. The median age for those that have passed in Italy is ~81. Most of the US deaths currently were from an end-of-life care center. A massive percentage of the deaths in China are from the original province. I'm not saying this isn't an issue, and we should especially look out for our elderly, but the stats simply aren't there to claim a 20% death rate. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

dredmorbius 7y ago
Germany's rate is suspiciously low, though 2 deaths are reported today.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Could we just stop real-time counting of each and every single case? Germany has more than 81 million people, just to add some perspective. People die, it sucks, and that virus is not your common cold, but this case counting, in media and the internet, is really getting ridiculous. And please refrain from using words like "suspiciously" which tend to transport negative messages. There is nothing suspicious about these numbers what so ever.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - dredmorbius 7y ago
    Sorry, no conspiracy intended. Only the observation that, relative to experiences elsewhere, Italy's mortality is high, Germany's is low. Far more than expected, which suggests other dynamics (again: unlikely some conspiracy) at play. When you're used to dealing with numbers, numbers that don't match up to expectations are "suspicious", in that they suggest some underlying issue, though whether in data or ground truth can be hard to say.
    - partiallypro 7y ago
      The theory I've heard and find most probable is that Germany has more ICU beds per capita than Italy. A lot of people think hospital beds in general are most important, but a lot of experts disagree. You could setup a hospital bed anywhere, ICUs are much more involved. Both Germany and the US have very high ICU per capita rates relative to others. Were it not for the nursing home and some cruise ship patients not getting the ideal care early on, the US rate would probably be about as low as Germany's. According to this article, Germany has 4x as many ICU beds per capita as the UK (the most in Europe,) and the US has upward of 10x as many. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-doctor-nhs-coronavirus-pandemic-hospitals https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-do...
      - dredmorbius 7y ago
        Interesting and possible. I suspect that Italy may have had undetected community transmission longer than Germany, that German testing is more comprehensive, and that we're seeing more case, detected earlier, and less advanced than Italy's, typically. In another week or two the gaps in experience may narrow. Germany's recovereds are only 18 (of 1,224 cases), so the vast majority of cases are still ongoing. At a rate comparable to Italy's, we'd be looking at 88 recoveries. For much of this epidemic, different countries aren't so much doing better or worse so much as being earlier or later in the process. Italy seems 1-2 weeks ahead of Germany. Corollary: look for nationwide quarantine in Germany in 7-14 days.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Numberwise, yes you're right. The problem with is that in the public discussion "suspicious" is going to be understood differently and in ways that don't help.
      - dredmorbius 7y ago
        Agreed. Not to excuse but explain: but being recently deprived of a hardware keyboard and having to use onscreen soft keyboards is a major handicap to clear writing. It's a 50% cut in intelligence.
yehaaa 7y ago
A majority of those cases are new. Just look at germany’s numbers a week ago. Presumably it takes some time for the condition to get worse and eventually lead to death.
mic47 7y ago
I think that the 20% comes from the percentage of serious cases (It was 20% in past, now it's 12% https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ). Problem with serious cases are that they need medical attention, so if all of us get infected medical system will not be able to handle 20% of population, so they will have to be without it... That being said, not all of 20% needs ICU, and not all people will be infected at the same time (specially now since people are panicking). OTOH, if medical system will be DDOS'd, then also other people will die that need medical attention (so mortality for other illnesses will go up). So in theory it could be as bad as 20% if we would ignore the virus, let it spread to everyone as fast as possible and don't do anything. But that is not what is happening.

dredmorbius 7y ago

Germany's rate is suspiciously low, though 2 deaths are reported today.

hef19898 7y ago
Could we just stop real-time counting of each and every single case? Germany has more than 81 million people, just to add some perspective. People die, it sucks, and that virus is not your common cold, but this case counting, in media and the internet, is really getting ridiculous. And please refrain from using words like "suspiciously" which tend to transport negative messages. There is nothing suspicious about these numbers what so ever.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  Sorry, no conspiracy intended. Only the observation that, relative to experiences elsewhere, Italy's mortality is high, Germany's is low. Far more than expected, which suggests other dynamics (again: unlikely some conspiracy) at play. When you're used to dealing with numbers, numbers that don't match up to expectations are "suspicious", in that they suggest some underlying issue, though whether in data or ground truth can be hard to say.
  - partiallypro 7y ago
    The theory I've heard and find most probable is that Germany has more ICU beds per capita than Italy. A lot of people think hospital beds in general are most important, but a lot of experts disagree. You could setup a hospital bed anywhere, ICUs are much more involved. Both Germany and the US have very high ICU per capita rates relative to others. Were it not for the nursing home and some cruise ship patients not getting the ideal care early on, the US rate would probably be about as low as Germany's. According to this article, Germany has 4x as many ICU beds per capita as the UK (the most in Europe,) and the US has upward of 10x as many. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-doctor-nhs-coronavirus-pandemic-hospitals https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-do...
    - dredmorbius 7y ago
      Interesting and possible. I suspect that Italy may have had undetected community transmission longer than Germany, that German testing is more comprehensive, and that we're seeing more case, detected earlier, and less advanced than Italy's, typically. In another week or two the gaps in experience may narrow. Germany's recovereds are only 18 (of 1,224 cases), so the vast majority of cases are still ongoing. At a rate comparable to Italy's, we'd be looking at 88 recoveries. For much of this epidemic, different countries aren't so much doing better or worse so much as being earlier or later in the process. Italy seems 1-2 weeks ahead of Germany. Corollary: look for nationwide quarantine in Germany in 7-14 days.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Numberwise, yes you're right. The problem with is that in the public discussion "suspicious" is going to be understood differently and in ways that don't help.
    - dredmorbius 7y ago
      Agreed. Not to excuse but explain: but being recently deprived of a hardware keyboard and having to use onscreen soft keyboards is a major handicap to clear writing. It's a 50% cut in intelligence.

yehaaa 7y ago

A majority of those cases are new. Just look at germany’s numbers a week ago. Presumably it takes some time for the condition to get worse and eventually lead to death.

mic47 7y ago

I think that the 20% comes from the percentage of serious cases (It was 20% in past, now it's 12% https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ). Problem with serious cases are that they need medical attention, so if all of us get infected medical system will not be able to handle 20% of population, so they will have to be without it... That being said, not all of 20% needs ICU, and not all people will be infected at the same time (specially now since people are panicking). OTOH, if medical system will be DDOS'd, then also other people will die that need medical attention (so mortality for other illnesses will go up). So in theory it could be as bad as 20% if we would ignore the virus, let it spread to everyone as fast as possible and don't do anything. But that is not what is happening.