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> Then why are countries like Germany, which were exposed earlier, not experiencing similar problems and lockdowns? Just wait a week or so.

haunter 7y ago
So you say in 1 week Germany will turn into Italy? With multiple hundreds of deaths and states closed down?
- bonzini 7y ago
  I say at least two of France, Germany, Switzerland and Spain. Of course I'd be happy to be wrong.
leggomylibro 7y ago
Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy, when Italy is implementing much stricter quarantine measures than Germany? "Just wait a week" is the refrain of everyone who is panicking right now, as it has been for the past few weeks.
- bonzini 7y ago
  > Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy Because that's how the exponential function works. Italy started earlier so its numbers are still growing by thousands every day. But the numbers for France and Germany are almost exactly the same as the numbers that Italy had 10 days earlier, and Switzerland trails Italy by only 5 days once you correct for the smaller population.
  - leggomylibro 7y ago
    But Italy did not start earlier; France and Germany did. Here's an animated map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_in_March_2020#/media/File%3ACOVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%932... So I ask again, if this is such a super-pandemic, why are Germany and France fine despite having looser quarantine measures and earlier outbreaks than Italy? And why do you expect them to get dramatically worse over the next week?
    - yongjik 7y ago
      Germany and France now have 1,151 and 1,209 patients, with latest daily increase of 31% and 27%, respectively. What do you mean they are "fine"?
      - leggomylibro 7y ago
        I mean that they have not felt the need to take the extremely aggressive step of suspending their citizens' civil liberties for an arbitrary period of time, and rightly so. Is this what you want in your community? https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809965742/personal-essay-from-wuhan-living-in-hell https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/8099657...
        yongjik 7y ago
        > ... they have not felt the need to take the extremely aggressive step of suspending their citizens' civil liberties ... If that's your definition of "fine", then when you wrote this: > why are Germany and France fine despite having looser quarantine measures ... were you actually saying: "why are Germany and France having looser quarantine measures despite having looser quarantine measures?" /shakes head
        leggomylibro 7y ago
        I understand your point of view, but I would phrase it more like: "Why are Germany and France not worse off than Italy despite having looser quarantine measures and an earlier start to their outbreaks?" And I still haven't heard an answer which comes close to justifying Italy suspending its citizens' rights. But that's fine; it won't matter in a few months, and we're approaching an easy opportunity to make money and travel smart as the herds follow their predictable migrations. I just wish that people were less eager to give our fundamental rights away over this; history shows that they are unlikely to come back once they are surrendered. I'm already tired of the CBP shutting down entire 80mph interstates to search every vehicle passing through; where does this end? Anyways, arguing about it is just something to do while everything is shut down, eh? :)

haunter 7y ago

So you say in 1 week Germany will turn into Italy? With multiple hundreds of deaths and states closed down?

bonzini 7y ago
I say at least two of France, Germany, Switzerland and Spain. Of course I'd be happy to be wrong.

leggomylibro 7y ago

Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy, when Italy is implementing much stricter quarantine measures than Germany? "Just wait a week" is the refrain of everyone who is panicking right now, as it has been for the past few weeks.

bonzini 7y ago
> Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy Because that's how the exponential function works. Italy started earlier so its numbers are still growing by thousands every day. But the numbers for France and Germany are almost exactly the same as the numbers that Italy had 10 days earlier, and Switzerland trails Italy by only 5 days once you correct for the smaller population.
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  But Italy did not start earlier; France and Germany did. Here's an animated map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_in_March_2020#/media/File%3ACOVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%932... So I ask again, if this is such a super-pandemic, why are Germany and France fine despite having looser quarantine measures and earlier outbreaks than Italy? And why do you expect them to get dramatically worse over the next week?
  - yongjik 7y ago
    Germany and France now have 1,151 and 1,209 patients, with latest daily increase of 31% and 27%, respectively. What do you mean they are "fine"?
    - leggomylibro 7y ago
      I mean that they have not felt the need to take the extremely aggressive step of suspending their citizens' civil liberties for an arbitrary period of time, and rightly so. Is this what you want in your community? https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809965742/personal-essay-from-wuhan-living-in-hell https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/8099657...
      - yongjik 7y ago
        > ... they have not felt the need to take the extremely aggressive step of suspending their citizens' civil liberties ... If that's your definition of "fine", then when you wrote this: > why are Germany and France fine despite having looser quarantine measures ... were you actually saying: "why are Germany and France having looser quarantine measures despite having looser quarantine measures?" /shakes head
        leggomylibro 7y ago
        I understand your point of view, but I would phrase it more like: "Why are Germany and France not worse off than Italy despite having looser quarantine measures and an earlier start to their outbreaks?" And I still haven't heard an answer which comes close to justifying Italy suspending its citizens' rights. But that's fine; it won't matter in a few months, and we're approaching an easy opportunity to make money and travel smart as the herds follow their predictable migrations. I just wish that people were less eager to give our fundamental rights away over this; history shows that they are unlikely to come back once they are surrendered. I'm already tired of the CBP shutting down entire 80mph interstates to search every vehicle passing through; where does this end? Anyways, arguing about it is just something to do while everything is shut down, eh? :)