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For reference, there have been 3,000 deaths out of 11,000,000 people in Wuhan. That's 0.03% of the population dead and the number of new deaths per day is decli

For reference, there have been 3,000 deaths out of 11,000,000 people in Wuhan. That's 0.03% of the population dead and the number of new deaths per day is declining. If the rest of the world comes even close to being as good at quarantine as Wuhan, we'll be way under 2%. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_ou...

notJim 7y ago
Meanwhile in the US, the CDC appears to be resisting testing people, and as far as I can tell, quarantines are barely even being considered. Washington state is in the top 3 of cases in the country, but 30k people attended a soccer game on Saturday. I hate to contribute to the panic and tinfoil-hat conspiracies, but I'm really concerned about the US response so far.
- btilly 7y ago
  Meanwhile in the US, the CDC appears to be resisting testing people... They know something that you don't. Which is that the test has both a high false negative and a high false positive rate. Which means that its effectiveness as a decision making tool is limited. That said, the longer you wait to start quarantine, the longer you have to keep quarantine measures in place. But on the flip side, if extreme responses are too good, then you increase the risk that on the next serious threat, people will yawn and fail to comply. Public health has a wicked problem here. The more effective it is, the less that people feel it is needed.
tdfx 7y ago
Based on the US and Iranian responses, it seems a substantial portion of the world will not come remotely close to being as effective at quarantining as Wuhan. Wuhan appears to be the maximum effectiveness, not the average.
- jay_kyburz 7y ago
  Yeah, there is no way Police will drag people off the street or weld people into their homes in the US or here in Australia. I think a lot of people would rather just let the virus spread.

notJim 7y ago

Meanwhile in the US, the CDC appears to be resisting testing people, and as far as I can tell, quarantines are barely even being considered. Washington state is in the top 3 of cases in the country, but 30k people attended a soccer game on Saturday. I hate to contribute to the panic and tinfoil-hat conspiracies, but I'm really concerned about the US response so far.

btilly 7y ago
Meanwhile in the US, the CDC appears to be resisting testing people... They know something that you don't. Which is that the test has both a high false negative and a high false positive rate. Which means that its effectiveness as a decision making tool is limited. That said, the longer you wait to start quarantine, the longer you have to keep quarantine measures in place. But on the flip side, if extreme responses are too good, then you increase the risk that on the next serious threat, people will yawn and fail to comply. Public health has a wicked problem here. The more effective it is, the less that people feel it is needed.

tdfx 7y ago

Based on the US and Iranian responses, it seems a substantial portion of the world will not come remotely close to being as effective at quarantining as Wuhan. Wuhan appears to be the maximum effectiveness, not the average.

jay_kyburz 7y ago
Yeah, there is no way Police will drag people off the street or weld people into their homes in the US or here in Australia. I think a lot of people would rather just let the virus spread.