4 ms·
A bit less than 10x, an order of magnitude, every week. It's been really is very easy to see the future up until now. There's 9000 cases in Italy now; by the 1
by Udik 7y ago
A bit less than 10x, an order of magnitude, every week.
It's been really is very easy to see the future up until now. There's 9000 cases in Italy now; by the 16th of March, factoring in the containment measures, they could be 60-80k.
About 10% need intensive care; there's probably 3000 IC beds available now. Very simple.
- travisjungroth 7y agoYeah, I'm not sure why I was downvoted. It was a leading question to point out that "3 orders of magnitude" isn't far away at all.
- FabHK 7y agoFrom the statistics I’ve seen, unless there’s effective quarantine and countermeasures in effect, you can expect an order of magnitude (while most of the population is not yet infected, obviously) about every 2 to 3 weeks. Yay for exponential growth.
- virgilp 7y agoSo how many weeks for 10 orders of magnitude? Because it feels like you extrapolate linearly...
- baq 7y agogood news (sort of), Italian government did the math and shut down all of Italy.