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Right now the US in a relatively short span of time has gone from having no testing (due almost exclusively to government regulation) to having broad testing av

Right now the US in a relatively short span of time has gone from having no testing (due almost exclusively to government regulation) to having broad testing availability (thanks to free markets). > People will just get sick and die People may get COVID-19, but in general I would anticipate the rate of severe outcomes to be lower than we've seen given both the physical distance between people in the US versus more dense areas and the higher distribution of healthcare - we just have a lot more hospitals per person than China does. > Hospitals will experience shortages and we'll try to back-stop those shortages via capitalistic solutions That may happen, but Hospitals are also free to invest heavily in having their own supplies and we've already seen companies start shipping supplies in bulk. We are better positioned to address shortages than most other nations. > I wouldn't rule out the possibility of even stories of straight-up bribery for hospital access to come up some years after this is all over. That is far fetched and not tied to reality. > we won't try to contain it beyond perfunctory measures It would be surprising to see a formal quarantine. It is more likely some areas will have recommended quarantines and in general social distancing will be heavily encouraged.

whatisthiseven 7y ago
> to having broad testing availability What are the costs of this testing?
cstejerean 7y ago
We do not have more hospital beds than China does. China is at 4.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people. In the US we are at 2.7. Italy is at 3.18. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_ho... There’s been no evidence so far that our social distancing measures have done anything to slow this down, and at the rate it’s growing we will absolutely run out of hospital capacity at some point (and that’s just regular beds, not to mention oxygen, masks and PPE for the hospital staff, or ICU beds for the critically ill). A formal quarantine is just a matter of time.
- malandrew 7y ago
  Comparing quantity of hospital beds is a bit of a red herring. Having been in hospital beds in three countries on three continents (US, Brazil and China), I'd take the US hospital beds over the other two every single time. Much better beds, much better equipment, much better training, much better practices, processes and protocols.
  - i_haz_rabies 7y ago
    It doesn't really matter how good the bed is if there isn't one left for you.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    We don't have the surge capacity necessary to handle this outbreak. That's the bottom line and will be the trigger for shutting down everything else in an attempt to lessen the load on overburdened hospitals. And it's not just beds. It's personnel too. CDC is preparing for 96MM cases. 5% hospitalization is already 4.8MM beds spread out over a couple months. Not to mention if you don't quarantine the cases in the hospital already sick people are going to get the virus and likely die. This is a logistical nightmare.
bgee 7y ago
> we just have a lot more hospitals per person than China does. I don't think this is true, do you have evidence to back this up? Hospital beds per 1000 people is probably a better comparison though: China 4.05, US 2.77 [0] [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...
shadowgovt 7y ago
Regarding formal quarantine: you don't have to look far in this thread to see people saying if it's attempted, they'll try to break it on purpose just to prove the government doesn't have the right to enforce it. The US's concept of individual liberty is unusual and, in some cases, self-destructive.
falcolas 7y ago
> having broad testing availability (thanks to free markets). Well, aside from the government shouldering the costs of the tests approved by the FDA.[0] But, since getting tested would involve going to the doctor (not free), and potentially being forbidden from working for two weeks, there are a lot of people in the margins who will simply not voluntarily get tested, even if they have the symptoms. [1] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22493046 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22493046 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22519125 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22519125
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

whatisthiseven 7y ago

> to having broad testing availability What are the costs of this testing?

cstejerean 7y ago

We do not have more hospital beds than China does. China is at 4.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people. In the US we are at 2.7. Italy is at 3.18. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_ho... There’s been no evidence so far that our social distancing measures have done anything to slow this down, and at the rate it’s growing we will absolutely run out of hospital capacity at some point (and that’s just regular beds, not to mention oxygen, masks and PPE for the hospital staff, or ICU beds for the critically ill). A formal quarantine is just a matter of time.

malandrew 7y ago
Comparing quantity of hospital beds is a bit of a red herring. Having been in hospital beds in three countries on three continents (US, Brazil and China), I'd take the US hospital beds over the other two every single time. Much better beds, much better equipment, much better training, much better practices, processes and protocols.
- i_haz_rabies 7y ago
  It doesn't really matter how good the bed is if there isn't one left for you.
- allovernow 7y ago
  We don't have the surge capacity necessary to handle this outbreak. That's the bottom line and will be the trigger for shutting down everything else in an attempt to lessen the load on overburdened hospitals. And it's not just beds. It's personnel too. CDC is preparing for 96MM cases. 5% hospitalization is already 4.8MM beds spread out over a couple months. Not to mention if you don't quarantine the cases in the hospital already sick people are going to get the virus and likely die. This is a logistical nightmare.

bgee 7y ago

> we just have a lot more hospitals per person than China does. I don't think this is true, do you have evidence to back this up? Hospital beds per 1000 people is probably a better comparison though: China 4.05, US 2.77 [0] [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...

shadowgovt 7y ago

Regarding formal quarantine: you don't have to look far in this thread to see people saying if it's attempted, they'll try to break it on purpose just to prove the government doesn't have the right to enforce it. The US's concept of individual liberty is unusual and, in some cases, self-destructive.

falcolas 7y ago

> having broad testing availability (thanks to free markets). Well, aside from the government shouldering the costs of the tests approved by the FDA.[0] But, since getting tested would involve going to the doctor (not free), and potentially being forbidden from working for two weeks, there are a lot of people in the margins who will simply not voluntarily get tested, even if they have the symptoms. [1] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22493046 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22493046 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22519125 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22519125

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]