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Then why are countries like Germany, which were exposed earlier, not experiencing similar problems and lockdowns? I am deeply troubled by this sort of isolated

Then why are countries like Germany, which were exposed earlier, not experiencing similar problems and lockdowns? I am deeply troubled by this sort of isolated authoritarian overreach and the eagerness with which people accept it. If states in the US do try to lock down their borders, I might drive across a few just to reinforce the fact that such measures are unconstitutional and anti-American. This is all starting to feel like mass hysteria, considering how much reports vary from country to country and the whiplash speed at which the overton window is moving. How long until Congress passes the Pandemic-triot act to suspend the 1st amendment in the same way that the Patriot act suspended the 4th and 5th? This happens every 5 years or so; SARS, swine flu, and H1N1 were all more severe, and we didn't destroy our societies over them. We just have more access to information and mediums of emotional contagion nowadays. I understand that most people disagree with me on this, but that's what happens with mass hysteria and emotional contagion. Know that not everyone buys into it, and if you are keeping calm you are not alone :) Personally, I'm thinking of visiting Venice in a few weeks once the planes and trains are operating again. This seems like a great opportunity to avoid the crowds and get a good deal on seeing the city before it is submerged for good.

allovernow 7y ago
Normally I lean heavily libertarian and I agree with your concerns, but all of the literature out of China on lancet, pubmed, etc are demonstrating that this is far worse than SARS or anything else that's hit. At the very least the rate of spread is .25-4 times higher than the Spanish flu and lethality is comparable. China shut down it's entire industry for two months. Knowing full well the risk of losing global business permanently. Perhaps it is time for drastic measures.
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  I don't understand how people can keep saying this with a straight face. It's been months since the infections started in Wuhan, people keep predicting imminent doom within the next week, and it keeps not happening. I think we need to acknowledge that the worst-cast predictions are laughably inaccurate, and a little bit of fear of the unknown is not worth losing our civil rights over.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    You are misinformed. This is literally starting now. Jesus man open your eyes. Multiple states have declared states of emergency. At the very least that means the virus is here. Now do you honestly think China would shut down it's entire economy for 2 months over the flu? Have you actually read any published literature on the virus, or are you just watching people around you prepare and laughing at them? 8% of the Iranian parliament was infected last week - two were dead by Friday. Because this is all unfolding slowly, we still don't even know if any of the following speculation is true: 1. Multiple Chinese sources report reinfection after recover 2. Multiple sources report positive tests after recovery 3. Hot weather may not stop the virus (see Singapore) This is not SARS. This is not just another flu outbreak. Global markets are crashing because they see what's happened in 6+ countries now. It's time to get your head out of the sand. Do you know that fucking Mecca is deserted right now? I don't think that's ever happened before.
    - leggomylibro 7y ago
      Sure I believe that the virus is here and that it is serious. I wouldn't be surprised if my neighbors had it, and I might have had it a week ago judging from symptoms, but so what? I'm staying away from at-risk groups like the elderly and immune-compromised, I have enough food and water to last a few weeks, and I'm not running out to social gatherings. But I also believe that it is not an excuse to suspend the Constitution. Jesus man open your eyes, a lot of people died for those rights and it's insane to throw them away over a momentary panic. The markets crashing is overdue IMO; things have been overheated for a long time now and a correction has been expected for awhile. It had may as well come as a result of herd behavior rather than market fundamentals, and I say let it ride. Like the old adage goes: be greedy when people are fearful, and fearful when people are greedy. Also, the Hajj isn't until July this year; it's not surprising that Mecca is not crowded, and closing it for most business at this point in time is not beyond the pale in a global sense.
  - nwallin 7y ago
    The thing that stopped the spread of coronavirus in Hubei after ~50k infections is the lockdown. The lockdowns began January 22-23rd, affecting about 59m people. Nobody is leaving their homes except a few essential personnel, to include medical personnel and food delivery. That works in China but it probably won't fly in most liberal democracies. At the time, less than 2k people were confirmed infected. Exponential growth continued for two more weeks, until hitting its inflection point. That's with the lockdown. Coronavirus has begun exponential growth in the rest of the world. The rest of the world already has more cases than China did when exponential growth inflected. As of today, it's not showing any signs of inflection. On February 26th, Trump said we had 15 cases in the US, and would be close to zero within a few days. 11 days later, we have 607 cases, 22 deaths, and 8 recoveries. That's a growth rate of 40% per day, and holding steady. The scary number isn't 607. And it isn't even 22. Nor is it 22/607 or 22/(8+22). (which, tbh, is pretty scary) The scary number is 40%. Sure, it's "just" old people with a high probability of dying. But I have several elderly relatives. I'm not enthusiastic about losing any of them.
- mariushn 7y ago
  > At the very least the rate of spread is .25-4 times higher See how China scientifically tracked spreading: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22528245 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22528245 > China shut down it's entire industry for two months and kept everybody at home (and if you violate those restrictions, go to jail), and had masks for everybody... It's safer to be in China than EU now.
bonzini 7y ago
> Then why are countries like Germany, which were exposed earlier, not experiencing similar problems and lockdowns? Just wait a week or so.
- haunter 7y ago
  So you say in 1 week Germany will turn into Italy? With multiple hundreds of deaths and states closed down?
  - bonzini 7y ago
    I say at least two of France, Germany, Switzerland and Spain. Of course I'd be happy to be wrong.
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy, when Italy is implementing much stricter quarantine measures than Germany? "Just wait a week" is the refrain of everyone who is panicking right now, as it has been for the past few weeks.
  - bonzini 7y ago
    > Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy Because that's how the exponential function works. Italy started earlier so its numbers are still growing by thousands every day. But the numbers for France and Germany are almost exactly the same as the numbers that Italy had 10 days earlier, and Switzerland trails Italy by only 5 days once you correct for the smaller population.
    - leggomylibro 7y ago
      But Italy did not start earlier; France and Germany did. Here's an animated map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_in_March_2020#/media/File%3ACOVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%932... So I ask again, if this is such a super-pandemic, why are Germany and France fine despite having looser quarantine measures and earlier outbreaks than Italy? And why do you expect them to get dramatically worse over the next week?
ohazi 7y ago
> that such measures are unconstitutional and anti-American You're wrong. The constitution explicitly carves out allowances for quarantines. A "nobody is allowed to leave their homes starting now" type order would obviously be practically impossible to enforce, but that's a different matter.
- shadowgovt 7y ago
  ... but roving armed police cruisers are, obviously, a good start to such enforcement, and most American towns already know how to do that.
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  >The constitution explicitly carves out allowances for quarantines. Where? I could be missing something, but I don't see that: https://constitutionus.com/ https://constitutionus.com/ The closest I could find was the part that grants Congress the power to pass any law that it wants, but I don't think that the executive arm could unilaterally lock down interstate travel. It also says: >The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States. We are citizens of the United States, not of one state in particular. We pull together, or we fall apart.
  - kettro 7y ago
    Gibbons v Ogden (1824) — states may pass quarantine laws under the interstate commerce clause.
    - leggomylibro 7y ago
      That sounds like it involves the legislature passing a law, not an executive decision.
yongjik 7y ago
Of course every country has its own share of idiots. According to the latest Korean news, some elderly lady moved from Daegu to her daughter's home at Seoul, had a flu-like symptom, went to one of the biggest hospitals in Seoul and lied five times that she wasn't from Daegu. Now they have to quarantine the hospital. Well, at least she didn't claim that it was her constitutional rights to barge into random hospitals carrying virus. Cultural differences, I guess.

allovernow 7y ago

Normally I lean heavily libertarian and I agree with your concerns, but all of the literature out of China on lancet, pubmed, etc are demonstrating that this is far worse than SARS or anything else that's hit. At the very least the rate of spread is .25-4 times higher than the Spanish flu and lethality is comparable. China shut down it's entire industry for two months. Knowing full well the risk of losing global business permanently. Perhaps it is time for drastic measures.

leggomylibro 7y ago
I don't understand how people can keep saying this with a straight face. It's been months since the infections started in Wuhan, people keep predicting imminent doom within the next week, and it keeps not happening. I think we need to acknowledge that the worst-cast predictions are laughably inaccurate, and a little bit of fear of the unknown is not worth losing our civil rights over.
- allovernow 7y ago
  You are misinformed. This is literally starting now. Jesus man open your eyes. Multiple states have declared states of emergency. At the very least that means the virus is here. Now do you honestly think China would shut down it's entire economy for 2 months over the flu? Have you actually read any published literature on the virus, or are you just watching people around you prepare and laughing at them? 8% of the Iranian parliament was infected last week - two were dead by Friday. Because this is all unfolding slowly, we still don't even know if any of the following speculation is true: 1. Multiple Chinese sources report reinfection after recover 2. Multiple sources report positive tests after recovery 3. Hot weather may not stop the virus (see Singapore) This is not SARS. This is not just another flu outbreak. Global markets are crashing because they see what's happened in 6+ countries now. It's time to get your head out of the sand. Do you know that fucking Mecca is deserted right now? I don't think that's ever happened before.
  - leggomylibro 7y ago
    Sure I believe that the virus is here and that it is serious. I wouldn't be surprised if my neighbors had it, and I might have had it a week ago judging from symptoms, but so what? I'm staying away from at-risk groups like the elderly and immune-compromised, I have enough food and water to last a few weeks, and I'm not running out to social gatherings. But I also believe that it is not an excuse to suspend the Constitution. Jesus man open your eyes, a lot of people died for those rights and it's insane to throw them away over a momentary panic. The markets crashing is overdue IMO; things have been overheated for a long time now and a correction has been expected for awhile. It had may as well come as a result of herd behavior rather than market fundamentals, and I say let it ride. Like the old adage goes: be greedy when people are fearful, and fearful when people are greedy. Also, the Hajj isn't until July this year; it's not surprising that Mecca is not crowded, and closing it for most business at this point in time is not beyond the pale in a global sense.
- nwallin 7y ago
  The thing that stopped the spread of coronavirus in Hubei after ~50k infections is the lockdown. The lockdowns began January 22-23rd, affecting about 59m people. Nobody is leaving their homes except a few essential personnel, to include medical personnel and food delivery. That works in China but it probably won't fly in most liberal democracies. At the time, less than 2k people were confirmed infected. Exponential growth continued for two more weeks, until hitting its inflection point. That's with the lockdown. Coronavirus has begun exponential growth in the rest of the world. The rest of the world already has more cases than China did when exponential growth inflected. As of today, it's not showing any signs of inflection. On February 26th, Trump said we had 15 cases in the US, and would be close to zero within a few days. 11 days later, we have 607 cases, 22 deaths, and 8 recoveries. That's a growth rate of 40% per day, and holding steady. The scary number isn't 607. And it isn't even 22. Nor is it 22/607 or 22/(8+22). (which, tbh, is pretty scary) The scary number is 40%. Sure, it's "just" old people with a high probability of dying. But I have several elderly relatives. I'm not enthusiastic about losing any of them.
mariushn 7y ago
> At the very least the rate of spread is .25-4 times higher See how China scientifically tracked spreading: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22528245 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22528245 > China shut down it's entire industry for two months and kept everybody at home (and if you violate those restrictions, go to jail), and had masks for everybody... It's safer to be in China than EU now.

bonzini 7y ago

> Then why are countries like Germany, which were exposed earlier, not experiencing similar problems and lockdowns? Just wait a week or so.

haunter 7y ago
So you say in 1 week Germany will turn into Italy? With multiple hundreds of deaths and states closed down?
- bonzini 7y ago
  I say at least two of France, Germany, Switzerland and Spain. Of course I'd be happy to be wrong.
leggomylibro 7y ago
Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy, when Italy is implementing much stricter quarantine measures than Germany? "Just wait a week" is the refrain of everyone who is panicking right now, as it has been for the past few weeks.
- bonzini 7y ago
  > Why would it be taking much longer for the virus to spread in Germany than it is in Italy Because that's how the exponential function works. Italy started earlier so its numbers are still growing by thousands every day. But the numbers for France and Germany are almost exactly the same as the numbers that Italy had 10 days earlier, and Switzerland trails Italy by only 5 days once you correct for the smaller population.
  - leggomylibro 7y ago
    But Italy did not start earlier; France and Germany did. Here's an animated map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_in_March_2020#/media/File%3ACOVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%932... So I ask again, if this is such a super-pandemic, why are Germany and France fine despite having looser quarantine measures and earlier outbreaks than Italy? And why do you expect them to get dramatically worse over the next week?

ohazi 7y ago

> that such measures are unconstitutional and anti-American You're wrong. The constitution explicitly carves out allowances for quarantines. A "nobody is allowed to leave their homes starting now" type order would obviously be practically impossible to enforce, but that's a different matter.

shadowgovt 7y ago
... but roving armed police cruisers are, obviously, a good start to such enforcement, and most American towns already know how to do that.
leggomylibro 7y ago
>The constitution explicitly carves out allowances for quarantines. Where? I could be missing something, but I don't see that: https://constitutionus.com/ https://constitutionus.com/ The closest I could find was the part that grants Congress the power to pass any law that it wants, but I don't think that the executive arm could unilaterally lock down interstate travel. It also says: >The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States. We are citizens of the United States, not of one state in particular. We pull together, or we fall apart.
- kettro 7y ago
  Gibbons v Ogden (1824) — states may pass quarantine laws under the interstate commerce clause.
  - leggomylibro 7y ago
    That sounds like it involves the legislature passing a law, not an executive decision.

yongjik 7y ago

Of course every country has its own share of idiots. According to the latest Korean news, some elderly lady moved from Daegu to her daughter's home at Seoul, had a flu-like symptom, went to one of the biggest hospitals in Seoul and lied five times that she wasn't from Daegu. Now they have to quarantine the hospital. Well, at least she didn't claim that it was her constitutional rights to barge into random hospitals carrying virus. Cultural differences, I guess.