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Wait until we make attempts to control the spread in the US. Things are about to get really interesting. Based on timelines from other countries, we're probably

Wait until we make attempts to control the spread in the US. Things are about to get really interesting. Based on timelines from other countries, we're probably 1-6, closer to 1-3 weeks away from full outbreak and severe containment measures.

shadowgovt 7y ago
The likeliest scenario in the US is that (at the federal level at least) we won't try to contain it beyond perfunctory measures. People will just get sick and die. Hospitals will experience shortages and we'll try to back-stop those shortages via capitalistic solutions. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of even stories of straight-up bribery for hospital access to come up some years after this is all over. Be it cancer or COVID-19, the US default attitude to healthcare in general is very "Whatever happens to a person, happens. Can't control it." One could even, uncharitably, point to the origins of the country and suggest that there's a critical mass of people who look at health crises, shrug, and go "God's will."
- vorpalhex 7y ago
  Right now the US in a relatively short span of time has gone from having no testing (due almost exclusively to government regulation) to having broad testing availability (thanks to free markets). > People will just get sick and die People may get COVID-19, but in general I would anticipate the rate of severe outcomes to be lower than we've seen given both the physical distance between people in the US versus more dense areas and the higher distribution of healthcare - we just have a lot more hospitals per person than China does. > Hospitals will experience shortages and we'll try to back-stop those shortages via capitalistic solutions That may happen, but Hospitals are also free to invest heavily in having their own supplies and we've already seen companies start shipping supplies in bulk. We are better positioned to address shortages than most other nations. > I wouldn't rule out the possibility of even stories of straight-up bribery for hospital access to come up some years after this is all over. That is far fetched and not tied to reality. > we won't try to contain it beyond perfunctory measures It would be surprising to see a formal quarantine. It is more likely some areas will have recommended quarantines and in general social distancing will be heavily encouraged.
  - whatisthiseven 7y ago
    > to having broad testing availability What are the costs of this testing?
  - cstejerean 7y ago
    We do not have more hospital beds than China does. China is at 4.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people. In the US we are at 2.7. Italy is at 3.18. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_ho... There’s been no evidence so far that our social distancing measures have done anything to slow this down, and at the rate it’s growing we will absolutely run out of hospital capacity at some point (and that’s just regular beds, not to mention oxygen, masks and PPE for the hospital staff, or ICU beds for the critically ill). A formal quarantine is just a matter of time.
    - malandrew 7y ago
      Comparing quantity of hospital beds is a bit of a red herring. Having been in hospital beds in three countries on three continents (US, Brazil and China), I'd take the US hospital beds over the other two every single time. Much better beds, much better equipment, much better training, much better practices, processes and protocols.
      - i_haz_rabies 7y ago
        It doesn't really matter how good the bed is if there isn't one left for you.
      - allovernow 7y ago
        We don't have the surge capacity necessary to handle this outbreak. That's the bottom line and will be the trigger for shutting down everything else in an attempt to lessen the load on overburdened hospitals. And it's not just beds. It's personnel too. CDC is preparing for 96MM cases. 5% hospitalization is already 4.8MM beds spread out over a couple months. Not to mention if you don't quarantine the cases in the hospital already sick people are going to get the virus and likely die. This is a logistical nightmare.
- GuardianCaveman 7y ago
  The core belief of Americans and the defining belief in my opinion is you can rise to any level of success or failure based off your own efforts alone. I’m not arguing the validity of belief but I am arguing against whatever idea you have of gods will and America’s founding. Americans will have less sympathy for the victims of the virus but not because of gods will blaming but because they’ll blame that person for touching their face or not taking precautions. We blame people for failing not god.
  - shadowgovt 7y ago
    Where it gets tricky is one particular breed of religious refugee that settled the US in the European colonial period (and who's philosophical thinking is deeply encoded into American culture) was particularly interested in predestination. For some Americans (perhaps a critical mass), God's will and success based on your own efforts are one and the same---they succeed because God chose them for success. The flip-side of the "your success is due to your own efforts" coin is a kind of collective defeatism: if you get sick, it's not because you drew a short statistical straw, it's because you made bad choices. And coupled with that predestination meme, the thought extends to "And you deserve what you're getting because God wills you make bad choices." It's a meme cocktail that can make it hard to get people moving on collective action that could benefit the average person.
- Der_Einzige 7y ago
  My entire reason for investing heavily in the market right now is that if the economy collapses, I can use my earnings from puts to literally bribe doctors for an ICU bed. Cus without that, I just won't get an ICU bed and may actually die
  - allovernow 7y ago
    If the market collapses you're exceedingly unlikely to have any earnings...
    - Der_Einzige 7y ago
      I invest in things that print money during a market collapse. Sure, you can argue that the USD will become worthless, but every country is being hit by this and if all currency is worthless than the best currency out of the lot is worth it. I don't think it's apocalypse levels where money stops mattering and it's only about material goods. I'm gonna be enjoying my Yacht in two years when a vaccine is finally out because the USD will remain strong relative to competitor currencies.
- stareatgoats 7y ago
  > Can't control it. Thoughts and prayers?
enchiridion 7y ago
More like 5-10 days. There will be a massive spike on Wednesday when test results from Quest start coming in.
- forkexec 7y ago
  Yep. And the poor in the US will not be tested because they cannot afford the test ($2000 if negative or false negative, and ? if positive or false positive) and told by their bosses that they still have to work. In the past, say 40+ years ago, anyone who was suspected of having a pandemic disease would be tested for free. This is vulture, gotcha capitalism profiteering off a disaster and assisted by the executive branch. When the POTUS gets sick from a pile of McDonald's cheeseburgers, that's karma.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    >In the past, say 40+ years ago, anyone who was suspected of having a pandemic disease would be tested for free. What? Even with the modern capitalist system the vast majority of people will be better off than they would have been 40 years ago. Our poor in the US live better lives than billions of people across the globe. Your opinion lacks perspective.
    - mx24 7y ago
      You should try telling that to a poor person in this country. Your experience “lacks perspective”. This is the wealthiest and most powerful country on earth. How we treat our poor and sick says a lot about us as a country.
forkexec 7y ago
According to the data, it's closer to 1 week in the US. The pandemic curve latency is roughly 45 days between China and the first cases in the US. Also, the US is large and the pandemic will take more time to accelerate (or not at all) in far-off places than urban areas... it won't spread uniformly or coherently.
- allovernow 7y ago
  Hopefully the sprawl will work in our favor.

shadowgovt 7y ago

The likeliest scenario in the US is that (at the federal level at least) we won't try to contain it beyond perfunctory measures. People will just get sick and die. Hospitals will experience shortages and we'll try to back-stop those shortages via capitalistic solutions. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of even stories of straight-up bribery for hospital access to come up some years after this is all over. Be it cancer or COVID-19, the US default attitude to healthcare in general is very "Whatever happens to a person, happens. Can't control it." One could even, uncharitably, point to the origins of the country and suggest that there's a critical mass of people who look at health crises, shrug, and go "God's will."

vorpalhex 7y ago
Right now the US in a relatively short span of time has gone from having no testing (due almost exclusively to government regulation) to having broad testing availability (thanks to free markets). > People will just get sick and die People may get COVID-19, but in general I would anticipate the rate of severe outcomes to be lower than we've seen given both the physical distance between people in the US versus more dense areas and the higher distribution of healthcare - we just have a lot more hospitals per person than China does. > Hospitals will experience shortages and we'll try to back-stop those shortages via capitalistic solutions That may happen, but Hospitals are also free to invest heavily in having their own supplies and we've already seen companies start shipping supplies in bulk. We are better positioned to address shortages than most other nations. > I wouldn't rule out the possibility of even stories of straight-up bribery for hospital access to come up some years after this is all over. That is far fetched and not tied to reality. > we won't try to contain it beyond perfunctory measures It would be surprising to see a formal quarantine. It is more likely some areas will have recommended quarantines and in general social distancing will be heavily encouraged.
- whatisthiseven 7y ago
  > to having broad testing availability What are the costs of this testing?
- cstejerean 7y ago
  We do not have more hospital beds than China does. China is at 4.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people. In the US we are at 2.7. Italy is at 3.18. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_ho... There’s been no evidence so far that our social distancing measures have done anything to slow this down, and at the rate it’s growing we will absolutely run out of hospital capacity at some point (and that’s just regular beds, not to mention oxygen, masks and PPE for the hospital staff, or ICU beds for the critically ill). A formal quarantine is just a matter of time.
  - malandrew 7y ago
    Comparing quantity of hospital beds is a bit of a red herring. Having been in hospital beds in three countries on three continents (US, Brazil and China), I'd take the US hospital beds over the other two every single time. Much better beds, much better equipment, much better training, much better practices, processes and protocols.
    - i_haz_rabies 7y ago
      It doesn't really matter how good the bed is if there isn't one left for you.
    - allovernow 7y ago
      We don't have the surge capacity necessary to handle this outbreak. That's the bottom line and will be the trigger for shutting down everything else in an attempt to lessen the load on overburdened hospitals. And it's not just beds. It's personnel too. CDC is preparing for 96MM cases. 5% hospitalization is already 4.8MM beds spread out over a couple months. Not to mention if you don't quarantine the cases in the hospital already sick people are going to get the virus and likely die. This is a logistical nightmare.
GuardianCaveman 7y ago
The core belief of Americans and the defining belief in my opinion is you can rise to any level of success or failure based off your own efforts alone. I’m not arguing the validity of belief but I am arguing against whatever idea you have of gods will and America’s founding. Americans will have less sympathy for the victims of the virus but not because of gods will blaming but because they’ll blame that person for touching their face or not taking precautions. We blame people for failing not god.
- shadowgovt 7y ago
  Where it gets tricky is one particular breed of religious refugee that settled the US in the European colonial period (and who's philosophical thinking is deeply encoded into American culture) was particularly interested in predestination. For some Americans (perhaps a critical mass), God's will and success based on your own efforts are one and the same---they succeed because God chose them for success. The flip-side of the "your success is due to your own efforts" coin is a kind of collective defeatism: if you get sick, it's not because you drew a short statistical straw, it's because you made bad choices. And coupled with that predestination meme, the thought extends to "And you deserve what you're getting because God wills you make bad choices." It's a meme cocktail that can make it hard to get people moving on collective action that could benefit the average person.
Der_Einzige 7y ago
My entire reason for investing heavily in the market right now is that if the economy collapses, I can use my earnings from puts to literally bribe doctors for an ICU bed. Cus without that, I just won't get an ICU bed and may actually die
- allovernow 7y ago
  If the market collapses you're exceedingly unlikely to have any earnings...
  - Der_Einzige 7y ago
    I invest in things that print money during a market collapse. Sure, you can argue that the USD will become worthless, but every country is being hit by this and if all currency is worthless than the best currency out of the lot is worth it. I don't think it's apocalypse levels where money stops mattering and it's only about material goods. I'm gonna be enjoying my Yacht in two years when a vaccine is finally out because the USD will remain strong relative to competitor currencies.
stareatgoats 7y ago
> Can't control it. Thoughts and prayers?

enchiridion 7y ago

More like 5-10 days. There will be a massive spike on Wednesday when test results from Quest start coming in.

forkexec 7y ago
Yep. And the poor in the US will not be tested because they cannot afford the test ($2000 if negative or false negative, and ? if positive or false positive) and told by their bosses that they still have to work. In the past, say 40+ years ago, anyone who was suspected of having a pandemic disease would be tested for free. This is vulture, gotcha capitalism profiteering off a disaster and assisted by the executive branch. When the POTUS gets sick from a pile of McDonald's cheeseburgers, that's karma.
- allovernow 7y ago
  >In the past, say 40+ years ago, anyone who was suspected of having a pandemic disease would be tested for free. What? Even with the modern capitalist system the vast majority of people will be better off than they would have been 40 years ago. Our poor in the US live better lives than billions of people across the globe. Your opinion lacks perspective.
  - mx24 7y ago
    You should try telling that to a poor person in this country. Your experience “lacks perspective”. This is the wealthiest and most powerful country on earth. How we treat our poor and sick says a lot about us as a country.

forkexec 7y ago

According to the data, it's closer to 1 week in the US. The pandemic curve latency is roughly 45 days between China and the first cases in the US. Also, the US is large and the pandemic will take more time to accelerate (or not at all) in far-off places than urban areas... it won't spread uniformly or coherently.

allovernow 7y ago
Hopefully the sprawl will work in our favor.