3 ms·

Really interesting point regarding severe cases. One follow-up - why do you think we had so many severe cases in late Feb? I still think we can all acknowledge

• zaroth 7y ago
  It appears that it may be coming under control in South Korea actually. We need a few more days to be sure. It also appears to be under control in China as well, with less than 100 new cases reported there yesterday. Containment in an absolute sense is not possible, but the data does not support a conclusion that pervasive infection (e.g. 10% of world population, as what happens every year with the flu) is inevitable. Arguably the only two data points we have at this point seem to point to containment actually being possible. Only once the daily testing rate has stabilized can you directly observe the new case growth rate without a bias. My theory on the severe case load in China is that the total infection rate is under-reported by at least an order of magnitude. We’ll only ever know if we have reliable serological testing (for antibodies) which is not yet being done.