4 ms·

Not sure how you can say both sides are wrong. It is now spreading widely outside of China and most of the west is very much not ready.

by cactus2093 7y ago

hef19898 7y ago
Yeah, it has spread to most countries by now. Thing is, Italy had the virus in the wild since January from what I understood. What ever that tells us about it. Regarding readiness, I have the impression that we are pretty prepared by now., Europe at least, o idea how things are in the US or Canada. Measures are in place to slow the spreading of the virus, known cases are quaratined one way or the other. And besides some nut jobs starting to hord pasta and toilette paper the supply situation in Germany seems to be rather good so far. Until the WHO or CDC or other eqivalent bodies aren't crying out that these measures aren't enough I consider them to be enough. I'm raher sure, so, that I absolutely don't listen to any politicians or other pulic functionaries talking pubicly about it.
- xiphias2 7y ago
  Can you reference any epidemiologist that states that we're ready for the effects of the pandemic? I haven't seen any proof of that.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    I didn't hear any alarmist outcries coming form, say, the WHO. Just that precautions and countermeasures need to be taken. For me that's good enough. Argably, you will always find one to go on TV an tell the opposite story. Fear sells, and even experts are doing fnny things to get their 15 minutes of fame. Maybe my biggest critique I have, that scientists seem to be less aliged regarding messaging than they are for climate change.
    - xiphias2 7y ago
      If you want an expert opinion, it's better not to watch WHO or the television. University lectures seem less opinionated, especially EPFL in Switzerland. The main message he has, that the oppportunity window for containing the virus closed in the last few weeks, and now it's all about mitigation, so that it doesn't overwhelm the health system. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RQBtA4dK9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RQBtA4dK9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0cjSnAynGs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0cjSnAynGs Sadly I saw some bias even in the Harvard talk when speaking about masks: saying that medical workers need them and that they don't work well against the virus anyways, so people shouldn't buy them is a contradictory statement. The truth is that it's a locally wise decision to buy N95 / N100 masks for partial protection, at the same time it's globally a bad decision for mitigating the virus, as health workers need them more.
      - hef19898 7y ago
        Personally, I like the WHO stuff. Especially since it's more or less the primary source. They suck so hard on messaging so. They don't explain the way how there numbers are calculated, they don't educate on the assumptions and the methodology. They aren't using online channels to get their information out. I would have thought they learned these lessons during SARS, MERS, bird and swine flu, Ebola. Apparently not. And in that absence of hard facts all kind of theories strive. Usually entertained by amateurs in the particular field. The WHO should be out there, every day, every hour. With all experts on cable news, I think the slots would be there. And thanks for sharing these links!
        easytiger 7y ago
        The WHO predicted that 150 million people would be killed by avian flu [1]. Nothing happened. They predicted 750,000 people would die in the UK, it was more like 200. For swine flu it was minimum possible deaths of 11k but up to 70k. It was more like 400. They got upset when people wouldn't use their case fatality rates which turned out very wrong. Over half a million people died of flu related deaths last year. Don't recall reading a single news article about it 1, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/emergency-services-plan-for-750000-deaths-in-flu-pandemic-5350244.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/emergency... 2, https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract

Not sure how you can say both sides are wrong. It is now spreading widely outside of China and most of the west is very much not ready.

hef19898 7y ago

Yeah, it has spread to most countries by now. Thing is, Italy had the virus in the wild since January from what I understood. What ever that tells us about it. Regarding readiness, I have the impression that we are pretty prepared by now., Europe at least, o idea how things are in the US or Canada. Measures are in place to slow the spreading of the virus, known cases are quaratined one way or the other. And besides some nut jobs starting to hord pasta and toilette paper the supply situation in Germany seems to be rather good so far. Until the WHO or CDC or other eqivalent bodies aren't crying out that these measures aren't enough I consider them to be enough. I'm raher sure, so, that I absolutely don't listen to any politicians or other pulic functionaries talking pubicly about it.

xiphias2 7y ago
Can you reference any epidemiologist that states that we're ready for the effects of the pandemic? I haven't seen any proof of that.
- hef19898 7y ago
  I didn't hear any alarmist outcries coming form, say, the WHO. Just that precautions and countermeasures need to be taken. For me that's good enough. Argably, you will always find one to go on TV an tell the opposite story. Fear sells, and even experts are doing fnny things to get their 15 minutes of fame. Maybe my biggest critique I have, that scientists seem to be less aliged regarding messaging than they are for climate change.
  - xiphias2 7y ago
    If you want an expert opinion, it's better not to watch WHO or the television. University lectures seem less opinionated, especially EPFL in Switzerland. The main message he has, that the oppportunity window for containing the virus closed in the last few weeks, and now it's all about mitigation, so that it doesn't overwhelm the health system. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RQBtA4dK9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RQBtA4dK9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0cjSnAynGs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0cjSnAynGs Sadly I saw some bias even in the Harvard talk when speaking about masks: saying that medical workers need them and that they don't work well against the virus anyways, so people shouldn't buy them is a contradictory statement. The truth is that it's a locally wise decision to buy N95 / N100 masks for partial protection, at the same time it's globally a bad decision for mitigating the virus, as health workers need them more.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Personally, I like the WHO stuff. Especially since it's more or less the primary source. They suck so hard on messaging so. They don't explain the way how there numbers are calculated, they don't educate on the assumptions and the methodology. They aren't using online channels to get their information out. I would have thought they learned these lessons during SARS, MERS, bird and swine flu, Ebola. Apparently not. And in that absence of hard facts all kind of theories strive. Usually entertained by amateurs in the particular field. The WHO should be out there, every day, every hour. With all experts on cable news, I think the slots would be there. And thanks for sharing these links!
      - easytiger 7y ago
        The WHO predicted that 150 million people would be killed by avian flu [1]. Nothing happened. They predicted 750,000 people would die in the UK, it was more like 200. For swine flu it was minimum possible deaths of 11k but up to 70k. It was more like 400. They got upset when people wouldn't use their case fatality rates which turned out very wrong. Over half a million people died of flu related deaths last year. Don't recall reading a single news article about it 1, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/emergency-services-plan-for-750000-deaths-in-flu-pandemic-5350244.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/emergency... 2, https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract