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I've thought about this too. What is the probability this becomes endemic to China, and occurs annually in the fall/winter? Related question: why didn't swine f

I've thought about this too. What is the probability this becomes endemic to China, and occurs annually in the fall/winter? Related question: why didn't swine flu become endemic (maybe it did, I haven't read anything about swine flu since 2009)?

officialjunk 7y ago
because regardless of what you hear, china takes outbreaks very seriously and responds aggressively. the general population in china also takes it very seriously. normal behavior response in china looks like over reaction in the us. please watch this video by 3blue1brown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg china is past its inflection point and we have yet to determine where our inflection point will be. everyone should be changing your behavior now. the fact that sars-cov didn’t get as far in 2002 as sars-cov-2 virus is currently going should be concerning. the us could ignore prior outbreaks because china is aggressive to stop it.
- SuoDuanDao 7y ago
  I was in China during the swine flu scare (I'm Canadian originally). I agree that China takes these sorts of things very seriously based on what I saw. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll succeed every time though, or that they'll respond as aggressively to a dangerous background virus as to a novel one.
- honestoHeminway 7y ago
  China says it takes outbreaks very serious. Saying is not doing. Saying is saying. Stalin said he worried about the workers. The workers starved. Words are cheap. The Subversion of public moral by facade action and routine subversion by blackmarket egoism in any socialist country is not helping. China is a disaster waiting to be exported once the borders reopen.
bigfudge 7y ago
I saw a recent paper which presented a model which did predict seasonal reinfection... provided the infection rate is low enough now and that infection rates are reduced in the summer vs winter. If all the mitigation efforts work well now and covid 19 is similar to flu in seasonality the model predicted we would have a lull from May a new outbreak in November.
seren 7y ago
Something to keep in mind Covid-19 has already taken a foot in multiple countries in the southern hemisphere, where they are going to enter fall pretty soon. This already reduces the possibility that it will totally fizzles out due to northern hemisphere summer.
- iso1210 7y ago
  There are far fewer people at the climates for a northern winter south of the equator. Sydney winter for example is around 10C, and rarely drops to 5C. Joburg's winter mean is about 10C. Compare that with London, New York and Beijing.
deleted 7y ago
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officialjunk 7y ago

because regardless of what you hear, china takes outbreaks very seriously and responds aggressively. the general population in china also takes it very seriously. normal behavior response in china looks like over reaction in the us. please watch this video by 3blue1brown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg china is past its inflection point and we have yet to determine where our inflection point will be. everyone should be changing your behavior now. the fact that sars-cov didn’t get as far in 2002 as sars-cov-2 virus is currently going should be concerning. the us could ignore prior outbreaks because china is aggressive to stop it.

SuoDuanDao 7y ago
I was in China during the swine flu scare (I'm Canadian originally). I agree that China takes these sorts of things very seriously based on what I saw. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll succeed every time though, or that they'll respond as aggressively to a dangerous background virus as to a novel one.
honestoHeminway 7y ago
China says it takes outbreaks very serious. Saying is not doing. Saying is saying. Stalin said he worried about the workers. The workers starved. Words are cheap. The Subversion of public moral by facade action and routine subversion by blackmarket egoism in any socialist country is not helping. China is a disaster waiting to be exported once the borders reopen.

bigfudge 7y ago

I saw a recent paper which presented a model which did predict seasonal reinfection... provided the infection rate is low enough now and that infection rates are reduced in the summer vs winter. If all the mitigation efforts work well now and covid 19 is similar to flu in seasonality the model predicted we would have a lull from May a new outbreak in November.

seren 7y ago

Something to keep in mind Covid-19 has already taken a foot in multiple countries in the southern hemisphere, where they are going to enter fall pretty soon. This already reduces the possibility that it will totally fizzles out due to northern hemisphere summer.

iso1210 7y ago
There are far fewer people at the climates for a northern winter south of the equator. Sydney winter for example is around 10C, and rarely drops to 5C. Joburg's winter mean is about 10C. Compare that with London, New York and Beijing.

deleted 7y ago

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