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> Some basic timing is not all that hard and can easily double your gains. If it was that easy everyone would do it, or at least the "simple basic timing"-fund

> Some basic timing is not all that hard and can easily double your gains. If it was that easy everyone would do it, or at least the "simple basic timing"-fund with twice the gain would be more popular than any etf. But probably more realistic you are just deluding yourself.

manigandham 7y ago
1) Plenty of funds have protected losses and even made gains with this market move. Buying puts as insurance, especially as volatility climbs, is standard operating procedure. 2) Hedge funds aren't open to the public and don't care about popularity. Their mandate is to limit volatility, not to maximize gains. That's why they might not match indexes in bull markets but outearn them in turbulent times. 3) There is an inflection point with capital where it gets much harder to make more because of changes in liquidity, transparency, and price action resulting from your moves. Independent traders can make 100% gains from large moves, a large fund could never do that unless it was an absolute perfect scenario. 4) I'm surprised that so many people find it hard to believe that months of constant negative news after 10 years of perfect bull run and frothy all-time highs does not signal a hint of a downturn. What more of a sign do you need? Nuclear war? 5) Ray Dalio did it in November 2019, and even made it clear that it was standard hedging: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-bridgewater-associates-1-billion-bet-stock-market-loss-2019-11-1028711471 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-br...
- koonsolo 7y ago
  All your points just fall into pieces when you compare gains from ETF's vs funds. Practice has proven that fund managers can't beat the market, let alone double the gains. But if you can, you must be a millionaire. You would be the best fund manager in the world. Congratulations on your achievement! Edit: That would be an average of 14% gain a year... wow, such skill, amaze!
  - manigandham 7y ago
    I explained that hedge funds are not about maximizing gains. And yes, I earned over 150% last year, but no that's not possible when managing 10 figure portfolios with rules on volatility and securities. Neither has anything to do with seeing the numerous warning signs over the last 3 months pointing to increased risk of a downturn which was worth a small percentage on puts. If you want to be a completely passive buy-and-hold investor then that's fine, but you don't have to be a daytrader to make some basic adjustments for the next quarter based on global news.
    - koonsolo 7y ago
      I've seen people here on hn predict recessions for years already... didn't happen yet. Sure, it might one day. Are you the lucky one now? We'll see in a few months. And if your total assets increased with 150%, you are probably gambling with your money, unless you had a black swan with 20x return.
      - manigandham 7y ago
        It's looking at a dozen red flags (read the the top post on this HN page) to have high confidence that there is trouble in the next few months. This is not predicting anything crazy other than a general downturn, and then making appropriate moves. A global pandemic alone is enough to signal it. It seems like the disagreement is from completely passive investors who don't realize that there are levels between daytrader and adjusting positions every few weeks based on news. Also I have friends in real estate who have earned 100% returns in a single year. It's not an impossible feat.
        koonsolo 7y ago
        > This is not predicting anything crazy other than a general downturn Why do you think this is not already reflected in the current price? You are the only person on the stock market following the news? > adjusting positions every few weeks based on news You really don't get it do you? You don't buy or sell based on things going good or bad. You buy when things are under-priced, and sell when things are overpriced. And even with the latter you don't know the exact timing when the market will realize this. > Also I have friends in real estate who have earned 100% returns in a single year. It's not an impossible feat. If you can win 100% in a year, you can just as easily lose 50%. That's just how returns, risk and time work.

manigandham 7y ago

1) Plenty of funds have protected losses and even made gains with this market move. Buying puts as insurance, especially as volatility climbs, is standard operating procedure. 2) Hedge funds aren't open to the public and don't care about popularity. Their mandate is to limit volatility, not to maximize gains. That's why they might not match indexes in bull markets but outearn them in turbulent times. 3) There is an inflection point with capital where it gets much harder to make more because of changes in liquidity, transparency, and price action resulting from your moves. Independent traders can make 100% gains from large moves, a large fund could never do that unless it was an absolute perfect scenario. 4) I'm surprised that so many people find it hard to believe that months of constant negative news after 10 years of perfect bull run and frothy all-time highs does not signal a hint of a downturn. What more of a sign do you need? Nuclear war? 5) Ray Dalio did it in November 2019, and even made it clear that it was standard hedging: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-bridgewater-associates-1-billion-bet-stock-market-loss-2019-11-1028711471 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-br...

koonsolo 7y ago
All your points just fall into pieces when you compare gains from ETF's vs funds. Practice has proven that fund managers can't beat the market, let alone double the gains. But if you can, you must be a millionaire. You would be the best fund manager in the world. Congratulations on your achievement! Edit: That would be an average of 14% gain a year... wow, such skill, amaze!
- manigandham 7y ago
  I explained that hedge funds are not about maximizing gains. And yes, I earned over 150% last year, but no that's not possible when managing 10 figure portfolios with rules on volatility and securities. Neither has anything to do with seeing the numerous warning signs over the last 3 months pointing to increased risk of a downturn which was worth a small percentage on puts. If you want to be a completely passive buy-and-hold investor then that's fine, but you don't have to be a daytrader to make some basic adjustments for the next quarter based on global news.
  - koonsolo 7y ago
    I've seen people here on hn predict recessions for years already... didn't happen yet. Sure, it might one day. Are you the lucky one now? We'll see in a few months. And if your total assets increased with 150%, you are probably gambling with your money, unless you had a black swan with 20x return.
    - manigandham 7y ago
      It's looking at a dozen red flags (read the the top post on this HN page) to have high confidence that there is trouble in the next few months. This is not predicting anything crazy other than a general downturn, and then making appropriate moves. A global pandemic alone is enough to signal it. It seems like the disagreement is from completely passive investors who don't realize that there are levels between daytrader and adjusting positions every few weeks based on news. Also I have friends in real estate who have earned 100% returns in a single year. It's not an impossible feat.
      - koonsolo 7y ago
        > This is not predicting anything crazy other than a general downturn Why do you think this is not already reflected in the current price? You are the only person on the stock market following the news? > adjusting positions every few weeks based on news You really don't get it do you? You don't buy or sell based on things going good or bad. You buy when things are under-priced, and sell when things are overpriced. And even with the latter you don't know the exact timing when the market will realize this. > Also I have friends in real estate who have earned 100% returns in a single year. It's not an impossible feat. If you can win 100% in a year, you can just as easily lose 50%. That's just how returns, risk and time work.