5 ms·

expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths Name two.

tristanj 7y ago
Gabriel Leung: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-ex... Marc Lipsitch: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?...
- masonic 7y ago
  Leung's actual quote: “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said. I think you're putting words in his mouth. Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens", which is not the same as saying he's "predicting billions infected", so, again, you put words in his mouth as well. Meanwhile, WHO estimates that only 0.5% of those exposed will develop any symptom at all... and not everyone will even be exposed.
  - jacobolus 7y ago
    Lipsitch now (a few days ago) claims that his new best estimate as of now is 20–60% of the world infected. Scroll down toward the bottom of https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
  - mullingitover 7y ago
    No professional epidemiologist is going to announce a prophecy about exactly what's going to happen, but they can all run the same numbers, and those numbers point to a global pandemic. There's some hedging in their statements, but they're both saying this is serious and the numbers are pointing in that direction. Nobody wants it to turn out that way, but failing to prepare for that possibility would be a grave error.
  - tristanj 7y ago
    > I think you're putting words in his mouth... again, you put words in his mouth as well. FYI I am totally different person to jacobolus, who made the original post you responded to. I'm not the one putting words in people's mouth. I don't totally agree with jacobolus's statement, I think the final numbers will be lower [0], but I do believe there's merit to his claim and am more than happy to respond and provide sources. > Re: Leung Leung has made further statements, suggesting that billions could be infected. For example, in this recent interview, he stated: https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warns-coronavirus-could-infect-60-per-cent-of-world-population/news-story/d71b9792e47df37d44df03bbb8b3f8e3 https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warn... “Everybody is susceptible. If you assume that everybody randomly mix with each other, then eventually you will see 40, 50, 60 per cent of the population get infected.” > Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens" That's a moot point. Lipsitch is saying we're already in a pandemic, under almost any reasonable definition of pandemic. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1 I think you'd have a better line of argument if you pointed out that neither of the two explicitly stated "millions if not tens of millions" of people will die. I'll conceded that's true, I haven't yet seen a top epidemiologist explicitly state so. However if you take one of the lower estimates of the death rate (0.5%), and apply it to their infection estimates, you'll get millions dead. If the WHO's official 3.4% CFR announced a couple days ago holds or increases, we'll see tens of millions dead. [0] Once enough people have died (tens of thousands), countries will get their act together and start doing proper quarantines, social distancing, and hygienic controls.
    - masonic 7y ago
      But "everybody randomly mix with each other" means everybody within an infected locale, not everyone on the planet. As far as we know, it can only be transmitted by contact (including surfaces), only while the virus is active, and only from an infected person while communicable. A huge portion of world population outside of the First World won't even be "in range." Its spread has been very constrained given that it was in the wild for months with most people taking no special precautions whatsoever. Look how ridiculously transmissible measles is, yet it took centuries to get to some highly populated regions.

Gabriel Leung: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-ex... Marc Lipsitch: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?...

masonic 7y ago
Leung's actual quote: “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said. I think you're putting words in his mouth. Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens", which is not the same as saying he's "predicting billions infected", so, again, you put words in his mouth as well. Meanwhile, WHO estimates that only 0.5% of those exposed will develop any symptom at all... and not everyone will even be exposed.
- jacobolus 7y ago
  Lipsitch now (a few days ago) claims that his new best estimate as of now is 20–60% of the world infected. Scroll down toward the bottom of https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
- mullingitover 7y ago
  No professional epidemiologist is going to announce a prophecy about exactly what's going to happen, but they can all run the same numbers, and those numbers point to a global pandemic. There's some hedging in their statements, but they're both saying this is serious and the numbers are pointing in that direction. Nobody wants it to turn out that way, but failing to prepare for that possibility would be a grave error.
- tristanj 7y ago
  > I think you're putting words in his mouth... again, you put words in his mouth as well. FYI I am totally different person to jacobolus, who made the original post you responded to. I'm not the one putting words in people's mouth. I don't totally agree with jacobolus's statement, I think the final numbers will be lower [0], but I do believe there's merit to his claim and am more than happy to respond and provide sources. > Re: Leung Leung has made further statements, suggesting that billions could be infected. For example, in this recent interview, he stated: https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warns-coronavirus-could-infect-60-per-cent-of-world-population/news-story/d71b9792e47df37d44df03bbb8b3f8e3 https://www.news.com.au/technology/public-health-expert-warn... “Everybody is susceptible. If you assume that everybody randomly mix with each other, then eventually you will see 40, 50, 60 per cent of the population get infected.” > Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens" That's a moot point. Lipsitch is saying we're already in a pandemic, under almost any reasonable definition of pandemic. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1 I think you'd have a better line of argument if you pointed out that neither of the two explicitly stated "millions if not tens of millions" of people will die. I'll conceded that's true, I haven't yet seen a top epidemiologist explicitly state so. However if you take one of the lower estimates of the death rate (0.5%), and apply it to their infection estimates, you'll get millions dead. If the WHO's official 3.4% CFR announced a couple days ago holds or increases, we'll see tens of millions dead. [0] Once enough people have died (tens of thousands), countries will get their act together and start doing proper quarantines, social distancing, and hygienic controls.
  - masonic 7y ago
    But "everybody randomly mix with each other" means everybody within an infected locale, not everyone on the planet. As far as we know, it can only be transmitted by contact (including surfaces), only while the virus is active, and only from an infected person while communicable. A huge portion of world population outside of the First World won't even be "in range." Its spread has been very constrained given that it was in the wild for months with most people taking no special precautions whatsoever. Look how ridiculously transmissible measles is, yet it took centuries to get to some highly populated regions.