4 ms·

When and how do you see it being contained?

by dforrestwilson 7y ago

godzillabrennus 7y ago
Mike Pence is praying it away. Haven’t you heard?
- badrabbit 7y ago
  And that's a problem how?
  - serf 7y ago
    it wastes the time of the experts who are expected to be in attendance, who may or may not have the same belief structure. it's fine as a personal effort, it's an issue when it turns into a forced group activity.
    - badrabbit 7y ago
      How is it wasting their time. Would you be just as offended if he said "I wish you well" instead? You're just being intolerant toward others beliefs and you think you are any less bigoted because your beliefs are better. He didn't force anything on anyone. You might be ignorant about this but people who believe in prayer don't think of it as hoping or good wishes, they (we) genuinely believe it has actual immediate effect. Your lack of belief does not justify your intolerance, he did not force others to participate. You are free to do more interesting things while he spends what...30 secs doing something you don't believe in? Such a high price for tolerance? And fyi, i am the last person that would support pence politically.
- dang 7y ago
  Please don't do this here.
stubish 7y ago
A vaccine being announced by one of the many groups researching this would be a signal.
zaroth 7y ago
Something people are misreading is that currently, the thing that is increasing exponentially is testing capacity. The thing you don't need testing capacity to detect is the serious and critical cases. So, look at the "Total Number of Severe or Critical Cases" over time. [1] Note that for cases which will be "severe" that the median time to onset of severe symptoms is 1 week (WHO report). Median time for any symptoms is 5-6 days. So essentially, if it is going to get bad, it gets bad quickly. What this indicates to me is that now that there is finally some actual testing capacity being deployed, we will see a lot of "new" cases, but they are old infections. Growth of the case count is not indicative of the actual current "growth factor", or R0 in the community. [1] - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#serious-critical https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...
- dforrestwilson 7y ago
  Really interesting point regarding severe cases. One follow-up - why do you think we had so many severe cases in late Feb? I still think we can all acknowledge at this time that this is an endemic virus. Containment is no longer possible.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    It appears that it may be coming under control in South Korea actually. We need a few more days to be sure. It also appears to be under control in China as well, with less than 100 new cases reported there yesterday. Containment in an absolute sense is not possible, but the data does not support a conclusion that pervasive infection (e.g. 10% of world population, as what happens every year with the flu) is inevitable. Arguably the only two data points we have at this point seem to point to containment actually being possible. Only once the daily testing rate has stabilized can you directly observe the new case growth rate without a bias. My theory on the severe case load in China is that the total infection rate is under-reported by at least an order of magnitude. We’ll only ever know if we have reliable serological testing (for antibodies) which is not yet being done.
badrabbit 7y ago
Doesn't matter if it is contained. If people accept it as normal (i.e.: full global spread) that's enough. There are bigger pandemics people have adopted to (AIDS,flu,etc...) a vaccine would help too. The market fears are not a result of being afraid people will die. It's mostly around consumer spending,containment/quarantine efforts and supply chain stability. This by itself is a very recoverable crisis, you don't need bailouts and mergers like in 2008. Nothing has collapsed (yet), which means everyone is trying to "buy low" as soon as any sign of long term recovery is seen. The only big fear is how politicians might throw gas into the fire for certain political ends.
- anon9001 7y ago
  > If people accept it as normal (i.e.: full global spread) that's enough I agree, but what if they don't? It's quite easy to just stop doing stuff, order everything on Amazon, and binge on TV and video games. It's arguably even rational to do it. Socializing is somewhat of a risk right now, and I'm pretty comfortable at home. The CDC said today that Americans should avoid taking long flights. The administration is downplaying the risk to Americans. > which means everyone is trying to "buy low" as soon as any sign of long term recovery is seen The market was given a chance to do that last week when the fed cut rates. The fact that futures are limit down tonight suggests that this selling may go deep. I would love to "buy low", but the bottom may not happen until prices are back to 2008 levels. Also 10Y is now down below 0.35. I'm not sure where the cracks in the system are, but this is a global stress test of the economy.
  - badrabbit 7y ago
    Your fears are justified but what I am saying is containment won't be very effective. The worst case is if it lingers on barely spreading like it is now. Once you see 100k+ infections per state and every major city with similar numbers things will hopefully normalize.if this timing is close to when Russia and KSA straighten out their dispute I would say that is a good time to start buying slowly. It really depends on the unknown factors. Things will normalize because people gotta eat, the big unknown here is when. Will everyone start missing mortgage payments and credit card bills because quarantines (unlikely)? Will supply chain issues cause big losses (very likely)? But you can make up for losses,like you said even with quarantine people still order online. We're seeing losses but no cascadig long term collapse like detroit,aig,lehman brothers in '08. But the worsr case can still play out and collapses can start cascading if the corona fears and oil dispute last more than a few weeks

When and how do you see it being contained?

godzillabrennus 7y ago

Mike Pence is praying it away. Haven’t you heard?

badrabbit 7y ago
And that's a problem how?
- serf 7y ago
  it wastes the time of the experts who are expected to be in attendance, who may or may not have the same belief structure. it's fine as a personal effort, it's an issue when it turns into a forced group activity.
  - badrabbit 7y ago
    How is it wasting their time. Would you be just as offended if he said "I wish you well" instead? You're just being intolerant toward others beliefs and you think you are any less bigoted because your beliefs are better. He didn't force anything on anyone. You might be ignorant about this but people who believe in prayer don't think of it as hoping or good wishes, they (we) genuinely believe it has actual immediate effect. Your lack of belief does not justify your intolerance, he did not force others to participate. You are free to do more interesting things while he spends what...30 secs doing something you don't believe in? Such a high price for tolerance? And fyi, i am the last person that would support pence politically.
dang 7y ago
Please don't do this here.

stubish 7y ago

A vaccine being announced by one of the many groups researching this would be a signal.

zaroth 7y ago

Something people are misreading is that currently, the thing that is increasing exponentially is testing capacity. The thing you don't need testing capacity to detect is the serious and critical cases. So, look at the "Total Number of Severe or Critical Cases" over time. [1] Note that for cases which will be "severe" that the median time to onset of severe symptoms is 1 week (WHO report). Median time for any symptoms is 5-6 days. So essentially, if it is going to get bad, it gets bad quickly. What this indicates to me is that now that there is finally some actual testing capacity being deployed, we will see a lot of "new" cases, but they are old infections. Growth of the case count is not indicative of the actual current "growth factor", or R0 in the community. [1] - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#serious-critical https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...

dforrestwilson 7y ago
Really interesting point regarding severe cases. One follow-up - why do you think we had so many severe cases in late Feb? I still think we can all acknowledge at this time that this is an endemic virus. Containment is no longer possible.
- zaroth 7y ago
  It appears that it may be coming under control in South Korea actually. We need a few more days to be sure. It also appears to be under control in China as well, with less than 100 new cases reported there yesterday. Containment in an absolute sense is not possible, but the data does not support a conclusion that pervasive infection (e.g. 10% of world population, as what happens every year with the flu) is inevitable. Arguably the only two data points we have at this point seem to point to containment actually being possible. Only once the daily testing rate has stabilized can you directly observe the new case growth rate without a bias. My theory on the severe case load in China is that the total infection rate is under-reported by at least an order of magnitude. We’ll only ever know if we have reliable serological testing (for antibodies) which is not yet being done.

badrabbit 7y ago

Doesn't matter if it is contained. If people accept it as normal (i.e.: full global spread) that's enough. There are bigger pandemics people have adopted to (AIDS,flu,etc...) a vaccine would help too. The market fears are not a result of being afraid people will die. It's mostly around consumer spending,containment/quarantine efforts and supply chain stability. This by itself is a very recoverable crisis, you don't need bailouts and mergers like in 2008. Nothing has collapsed (yet), which means everyone is trying to "buy low" as soon as any sign of long term recovery is seen. The only big fear is how politicians might throw gas into the fire for certain political ends.

anon9001 7y ago
> If people accept it as normal (i.e.: full global spread) that's enough I agree, but what if they don't? It's quite easy to just stop doing stuff, order everything on Amazon, and binge on TV and video games. It's arguably even rational to do it. Socializing is somewhat of a risk right now, and I'm pretty comfortable at home. The CDC said today that Americans should avoid taking long flights. The administration is downplaying the risk to Americans. > which means everyone is trying to "buy low" as soon as any sign of long term recovery is seen The market was given a chance to do that last week when the fed cut rates. The fact that futures are limit down tonight suggests that this selling may go deep. I would love to "buy low", but the bottom may not happen until prices are back to 2008 levels. Also 10Y is now down below 0.35. I'm not sure where the cracks in the system are, but this is a global stress test of the economy.
- badrabbit 7y ago
  Your fears are justified but what I am saying is containment won't be very effective. The worst case is if it lingers on barely spreading like it is now. Once you see 100k+ infections per state and every major city with similar numbers things will hopefully normalize.if this timing is close to when Russia and KSA straighten out their dispute I would say that is a good time to start buying slowly. It really depends on the unknown factors. Things will normalize because people gotta eat, the big unknown here is when. Will everyone start missing mortgage payments and credit card bills because quarantines (unlikely)? Will supply chain issues cause big losses (very likely)? But you can make up for losses,like you said even with quarantine people still order online. We're seeing losses but no cascadig long term collapse like detroit,aig,lehman brothers in '08. But the worsr case can still play out and collapses can start cascading if the corona fears and oil dispute last more than a few weeks