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Consider that career expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths worldwide, unless something dramatic

Consider that career expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths worldwide, unless something dramatically changes to deflect the current course or some of their assumptions turn out to be substantially wrong. That’s more infected and 1–2 orders of magnitude more deaths than the 2009 swine flu.

nostromo 7y ago
But who is dying matters when looking at economic impact. Median age of death in China is 75. Median age is 81 in Italy. This is around the expected life span of these countries. Obviously a human life cut short is always worth mourning, but from an economic perspective, dying pensioners could actually be a stimulus.
- jb_s 7y ago
  What we do to prevent old people dying - fathers, mothers, grandparents - will have a huge economic impact.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
  At the risk of sounding worse, the younger folks who inherit that bequeathed wealth might actually spend it, rather than tying it up in markets. Putting the money to work in the "real economy".
  - thu2111 7y ago
    Money tied up in markets is spent in the real economy, that's why it's tied up to begin with. It's gone to buy things like labour and assets.
- candiodari 7y ago
  You have seen the pictures of the streets in Italy, right ? This is decidedly not a stimulus. It could have been, true, but because of decisions made too late and with money clearly at front of mind it very, very much is a financial disaster.
masonic 7y ago
expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths Name two.
- tristanj 7y ago
  Gabriel Leung: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-ex... Marc Lipsitch: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?...
  - masonic 7y ago
    Leung's actual quote: “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said. I think you're putting words in his mouth. Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens", which is not the same as saying he's "predicting billions infected", so, again, you put words in his mouth as well. Meanwhile, WHO estimates that only 0.5% of those exposed will develop any symptom at all... and not everyone will even be exposed.
    - jacobolus 7y ago
      Lipsitch now (a few days ago) claims that his new best estimate as of now is 20–60% of the world infected. Scroll down toward the bottom of https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
    - mullingitover 7y ago
      No professional epidemiologist is going to announce a prophecy about exactly what's going to happen, but they can all run the same numbers, and those numbers point to a global pandemic. There's some hedging in their statements, but they're both saying this is serious and the numbers are pointing in that direction. Nobody wants it to turn out that way, but failing to prepare for that possibility would be a grave error.
JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
The fear in the markets is due to the long systemic propping up of asset values. COVID19 is the pin pricking the balloon. Fundamentally, COVID isn't the problem, it's the Fed. My favorite analogy is forest fires: they're healthy for the environment on occasion. When you stop them from happening indefinitely, bad things happen. In terms of markets, that means people taking on debts when they should not do so. People getting funded for fundamentally unprofitable business ventures. It is healthy for an economy to clean house on economically inefficient ventures from time to time.
- OscarCunningham 7y ago
  What would you suggest to replace the Fed's 2% inflation target?
  - dv_dt 7y ago
    Instead of the fed injecting money to stimulate loans, government should spend money on necessary future investments and fund it with issue of a ratio of treasury bond and direct monetary creation
    - OscarCunningham 7y ago
      Then what would you do when you needed to reduce inflation? The Fed can sell of the assets it's bought, but the government can't sell the roads it's built.
      - dv_dt 7y ago
        You change the ratio independently of the budget timeline just like the fed adjusts the it's rates. BTW you seem scared of inflation, inflation has been running low except the upper areas of the economy where the Fed has over low rates - so stock prices are inflated. What is really needed is injection of easier flowing money from below the economy. If you invest in good programs then they deliver a positive benefit to the economy over time. Like more roads means easier connectivity, less time spent in traffic, or increased network flow. I'd suggest the biggest bang for the buck is universal healthcare and paying public college for all.
partiallypro 7y ago
There are some scientists that have models like this, but keep in mind that a lot of the people that come up with these are not peer reviewed estimates, and some of them just want the publicity. The media obviously goes for it, because if it bleeds it leads.

nostromo 7y ago

But who is dying matters when looking at economic impact. Median age of death in China is 75. Median age is 81 in Italy. This is around the expected life span of these countries. Obviously a human life cut short is always worth mourning, but from an economic perspective, dying pensioners could actually be a stimulus.

jb_s 7y ago
What we do to prevent old people dying - fathers, mothers, grandparents - will have a huge economic impact.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
At the risk of sounding worse, the younger folks who inherit that bequeathed wealth might actually spend it, rather than tying it up in markets. Putting the money to work in the "real economy".
- thu2111 7y ago
  Money tied up in markets is spent in the real economy, that's why it's tied up to begin with. It's gone to buy things like labour and assets.
candiodari 7y ago
You have seen the pictures of the streets in Italy, right ? This is decidedly not a stimulus. It could have been, true, but because of decisions made too late and with money clearly at front of mind it very, very much is a financial disaster.

masonic 7y ago

expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths Name two.

tristanj 7y ago
Gabriel Leung: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-ex... Marc Lipsitch: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?...
- masonic 7y ago
  Leung's actual quote: “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said. I think you're putting words in his mouth. Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens", which is not the same as saying he's "predicting billions infected", so, again, you put words in his mouth as well. Meanwhile, WHO estimates that only 0.5% of those exposed will develop any symptom at all... and not everyone will even be exposed.
  - jacobolus 7y ago
    Lipsitch now (a few days ago) claims that his new best estimate as of now is 20–60% of the world infected. Scroll down toward the bottom of https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
  - mullingitover 7y ago
    No professional epidemiologist is going to announce a prophecy about exactly what's going to happen, but they can all run the same numbers, and those numbers point to a global pandemic. There's some hedging in their statements, but they're both saying this is serious and the numbers are pointing in that direction. Nobody wants it to turn out that way, but failing to prepare for that possibility would be a grave error.

JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago

The fear in the markets is due to the long systemic propping up of asset values. COVID19 is the pin pricking the balloon. Fundamentally, COVID isn't the problem, it's the Fed. My favorite analogy is forest fires: they're healthy for the environment on occasion. When you stop them from happening indefinitely, bad things happen. In terms of markets, that means people taking on debts when they should not do so. People getting funded for fundamentally unprofitable business ventures. It is healthy for an economy to clean house on economically inefficient ventures from time to time.

OscarCunningham 7y ago
What would you suggest to replace the Fed's 2% inflation target?
- dv_dt 7y ago
  Instead of the fed injecting money to stimulate loans, government should spend money on necessary future investments and fund it with issue of a ratio of treasury bond and direct monetary creation
  - OscarCunningham 7y ago
    Then what would you do when you needed to reduce inflation? The Fed can sell of the assets it's bought, but the government can't sell the roads it's built.
    - dv_dt 7y ago
      You change the ratio independently of the budget timeline just like the fed adjusts the it's rates. BTW you seem scared of inflation, inflation has been running low except the upper areas of the economy where the Fed has over low rates - so stock prices are inflated. What is really needed is injection of easier flowing money from below the economy. If you invest in good programs then they deliver a positive benefit to the economy over time. Like more roads means easier connectivity, less time spent in traffic, or increased network flow. I'd suggest the biggest bang for the buck is universal healthcare and paying public college for all.

partiallypro 7y ago

There are some scientists that have models like this, but keep in mind that a lot of the people that come up with these are not peer reviewed estimates, and some of them just want the publicity. The media obviously goes for it, because if it bleeds it leads.