5 ms·

I think this is all very overblown, and think within 5 years most people (obviously not those directly effected) won't even remember this happening. Similar to

I think this is all very overblown, and think within 5 years most people (obviously not those directly effected) won't even remember this happening. Similar to the Swine flu of 2009. Global growth will have a 1-2Q hiccup and then we'll likely have a rubber band recovery. But markets are in panic mode, and a lot of governments are showing their ineptitude, which is causing even more panic.

enchiridion 7y ago
I disagree. One of two things are going to happen. 1. Significant quarantines in areas which have never seen them. or 2. Mass infection and death. Both will be remembered.
- orblivion 7y ago
  3. Heroic effort that puts a stop to this without major disruption, following by insufferable people telling us "see it was never a big deal in the first place." I'm not sure which is the worst option.
  - enchiridion 7y ago
    1 and 2, by far.
jacobolus 7y ago
Consider that career expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths worldwide, unless something dramatically changes to deflect the current course or some of their assumptions turn out to be substantially wrong. That’s more infected and 1–2 orders of magnitude more deaths than the 2009 swine flu.
- nostromo 7y ago
  But who is dying matters when looking at economic impact. Median age of death in China is 75. Median age is 81 in Italy. This is around the expected life span of these countries. Obviously a human life cut short is always worth mourning, but from an economic perspective, dying pensioners could actually be a stimulus.
  - jb_s 7y ago
    What we do to prevent old people dying - fathers, mothers, grandparents - will have a huge economic impact.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
    At the risk of sounding worse, the younger folks who inherit that bequeathed wealth might actually spend it, rather than tying it up in markets. Putting the money to work in the "real economy".
    - thu2111 7y ago
      Money tied up in markets is spent in the real economy, that's why it's tied up to begin with. It's gone to buy things like labour and assets.
  - candiodari 7y ago
    You have seen the pictures of the streets in Italy, right ? This is decidedly not a stimulus. It could have been, true, but because of decisions made too late and with money clearly at front of mind it very, very much is a financial disaster.
- masonic 7y ago
  expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths Name two.
  - tristanj 7y ago
    Gabriel Leung: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-ex... Marc Lipsitch: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?...
    - masonic 7y ago
      Leung's actual quote: “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said. I think you're putting words in his mouth. Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens", which is not the same as saying he's "predicting billions infected", so, again, you put words in his mouth as well. Meanwhile, WHO estimates that only 0.5% of those exposed will develop any symptom at all... and not everyone will even be exposed.
      - jacobolus 7y ago
        Lipsitch now (a few days ago) claims that his new best estimate as of now is 20–60% of the world infected. Scroll down toward the bottom of https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
      - mullingitover 7y ago
        No professional epidemiologist is going to announce a prophecy about exactly what's going to happen, but they can all run the same numbers, and those numbers point to a global pandemic. There's some hedging in their statements, but they're both saying this is serious and the numbers are pointing in that direction. Nobody wants it to turn out that way, but failing to prepare for that possibility would be a grave error.
- JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
  The fear in the markets is due to the long systemic propping up of asset values. COVID19 is the pin pricking the balloon. Fundamentally, COVID isn't the problem, it's the Fed. My favorite analogy is forest fires: they're healthy for the environment on occasion. When you stop them from happening indefinitely, bad things happen. In terms of markets, that means people taking on debts when they should not do so. People getting funded for fundamentally unprofitable business ventures. It is healthy for an economy to clean house on economically inefficient ventures from time to time.
  - OscarCunningham 7y ago
    What would you suggest to replace the Fed's 2% inflation target?
    - dv_dt 7y ago
      Instead of the fed injecting money to stimulate loans, government should spend money on necessary future investments and fund it with issue of a ratio of treasury bond and direct monetary creation
      - OscarCunningham 7y ago
        Then what would you do when you needed to reduce inflation? The Fed can sell of the assets it's bought, but the government can't sell the roads it's built.
        dv_dt 7y ago
        You change the ratio independently of the budget timeline just like the fed adjusts the it's rates. BTW you seem scared of inflation, inflation has been running low except the upper areas of the economy where the Fed has over low rates - so stock prices are inflated. What is really needed is injection of easier flowing money from below the economy. If you invest in good programs then they deliver a positive benefit to the economy over time. Like more roads means easier connectivity, less time spent in traffic, or increased network flow. I'd suggest the biggest bang for the buck is universal healthcare and paying public college for all.
- partiallypro 7y ago
  There are some scientists that have models like this, but keep in mind that a lot of the people that come up with these are not peer reviewed estimates, and some of them just want the publicity. The media obviously goes for it, because if it bleeds it leads.
endorphone 7y ago
SARS happened 17 years ago yet a lot of people remember it vividly. It had a dramatically smaller infection and fatality count than COVID-19 already has, and COVID seems to be just getting started. I understand why people want to be optimistic, but this is a really big deal. The markets aren't taking a multi-trillion dollar haircut for nothing. Governments aren't quarantining tens of millions and undertaking absolutely historic responses for nothing. And if anything, the impact of this is being grossly under-considered yet. Travel is withering to nothing. Airlines are flying around a bunch of empty jets. As these start appearing on balance sheets the cascading effect will begin.
empath75 7y ago
How many cities were under quarantine in 2009?
hisabness 7y ago
this is more than just corona. oil prices have dropped 30% which generally should mean all asset/price levels should come down, at least if the drop is prolonged.
incompatible 7y ago
Depends how many over-indebted companies can't survive even a temporary cut in revenue. Flybe already closed in the UK. Together with people losing jobs, it gives an increase in bad debts.
kccqzy 7y ago
Markets are already pretty frothy. They are just looking for an excuse to crash. I don't think all of the crash can be attributed to the coronavirus.
- manigandham 7y ago
  Yes, there's a lot of 10-year bull run market dynamics that found a perfect catalyst with a global pandemic.
hourislate 7y ago
People remember SARS in Toronto from 2003. It really freaked out the whole city. I recall it took the film industry about 2 years to recover. When Covid-19 happened everyone wondered if it would be like SARS all over again. Still waiting to see how it pans out.
xbmcuser 7y ago
Yes Spanish flu was just another flu but it came back after a few months and wiped out 5% of the world's population

enchiridion 7y ago

I disagree. One of two things are going to happen. 1. Significant quarantines in areas which have never seen them. or 2. Mass infection and death. Both will be remembered.

orblivion 7y ago
3. Heroic effort that puts a stop to this without major disruption, following by insufferable people telling us "see it was never a big deal in the first place." I'm not sure which is the worst option.
- enchiridion 7y ago
  1 and 2, by far.

jacobolus 7y ago

Consider that career expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths worldwide, unless something dramatically changes to deflect the current course or some of their assumptions turn out to be substantially wrong. That’s more infected and 1–2 orders of magnitude more deaths than the 2009 swine flu.

nostromo 7y ago
But who is dying matters when looking at economic impact. Median age of death in China is 75. Median age is 81 in Italy. This is around the expected life span of these countries. Obviously a human life cut short is always worth mourning, but from an economic perspective, dying pensioners could actually be a stimulus.
- jb_s 7y ago
  What we do to prevent old people dying - fathers, mothers, grandparents - will have a huge economic impact.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
  At the risk of sounding worse, the younger folks who inherit that bequeathed wealth might actually spend it, rather than tying it up in markets. Putting the money to work in the "real economy".
  - thu2111 7y ago
    Money tied up in markets is spent in the real economy, that's why it's tied up to begin with. It's gone to buy things like labour and assets.
- candiodari 7y ago
  You have seen the pictures of the streets in Italy, right ? This is decidedly not a stimulus. It could have been, true, but because of decisions made too late and with money clearly at front of mind it very, very much is a financial disaster.
masonic 7y ago
expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths Name two.
- tristanj 7y ago
  Gabriel Leung: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-ex... Marc Lipsitch: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?...
  - masonic 7y ago
    Leung's actual quote: “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said. I think you're putting words in his mouth. Lipsitch's comment in your own link begins with "if a pandemic happens", which is not the same as saying he's "predicting billions infected", so, again, you put words in his mouth as well. Meanwhile, WHO estimates that only 0.5% of those exposed will develop any symptom at all... and not everyone will even be exposed.
    - jacobolus 7y ago
      Lipsitch now (a few days ago) claims that his new best estimate as of now is 20–60% of the world infected. Scroll down toward the bottom of https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html
    - mullingitover 7y ago
      No professional epidemiologist is going to announce a prophecy about exactly what's going to happen, but they can all run the same numbers, and those numbers point to a global pandemic. There's some hedging in their statements, but they're both saying this is serious and the numbers are pointing in that direction. Nobody wants it to turn out that way, but failing to prepare for that possibility would be a grave error.
JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
The fear in the markets is due to the long systemic propping up of asset values. COVID19 is the pin pricking the balloon. Fundamentally, COVID isn't the problem, it's the Fed. My favorite analogy is forest fires: they're healthy for the environment on occasion. When you stop them from happening indefinitely, bad things happen. In terms of markets, that means people taking on debts when they should not do so. People getting funded for fundamentally unprofitable business ventures. It is healthy for an economy to clean house on economically inefficient ventures from time to time.
- OscarCunningham 7y ago
  What would you suggest to replace the Fed's 2% inflation target?
  - dv_dt 7y ago
    Instead of the fed injecting money to stimulate loans, government should spend money on necessary future investments and fund it with issue of a ratio of treasury bond and direct monetary creation
    - OscarCunningham 7y ago
      Then what would you do when you needed to reduce inflation? The Fed can sell of the assets it's bought, but the government can't sell the roads it's built.
      - dv_dt 7y ago
        You change the ratio independently of the budget timeline just like the fed adjusts the it's rates. BTW you seem scared of inflation, inflation has been running low except the upper areas of the economy where the Fed has over low rates - so stock prices are inflated. What is really needed is injection of easier flowing money from below the economy. If you invest in good programs then they deliver a positive benefit to the economy over time. Like more roads means easier connectivity, less time spent in traffic, or increased network flow. I'd suggest the biggest bang for the buck is universal healthcare and paying public college for all.
partiallypro 7y ago
There are some scientists that have models like this, but keep in mind that a lot of the people that come up with these are not peer reviewed estimates, and some of them just want the publicity. The media obviously goes for it, because if it bleeds it leads.

endorphone 7y ago

SARS happened 17 years ago yet a lot of people remember it vividly. It had a dramatically smaller infection and fatality count than COVID-19 already has, and COVID seems to be just getting started. I understand why people want to be optimistic, but this is a really big deal. The markets aren't taking a multi-trillion dollar haircut for nothing. Governments aren't quarantining tens of millions and undertaking absolutely historic responses for nothing. And if anything, the impact of this is being grossly under-considered yet. Travel is withering to nothing. Airlines are flying around a bunch of empty jets. As these start appearing on balance sheets the cascading effect will begin.

empath75 7y ago

How many cities were under quarantine in 2009?

hisabness 7y ago

this is more than just corona. oil prices have dropped 30% which generally should mean all asset/price levels should come down, at least if the drop is prolonged.

incompatible 7y ago

Depends how many over-indebted companies can't survive even a temporary cut in revenue. Flybe already closed in the UK. Together with people losing jobs, it gives an increase in bad debts.

kccqzy 7y ago

Markets are already pretty frothy. They are just looking for an excuse to crash. I don't think all of the crash can be attributed to the coronavirus.

manigandham 7y ago
Yes, there's a lot of 10-year bull run market dynamics that found a perfect catalyst with a global pandemic.

hourislate 7y ago

People remember SARS in Toronto from 2003. It really freaked out the whole city. I recall it took the film industry about 2 years to recover. When Covid-19 happened everyone wondered if it would be like SARS all over again. Still waiting to see how it pans out.

xbmcuser 7y ago

Yes Spanish flu was just another flu but it came back after a few months and wiped out 5% of the world's population