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Some basic timing is not all that hard and can easily double your gains. All-time highs after 10 year bull run + coronavirus pandemic is a good time to at leas

Some basic timing is not all that hard and can easily double your gains. All-time highs after 10 year bull run + coronavirus pandemic is a good time to at least buy some puts or move into cash holdings.

throwaway373438 7y ago
Buying at a low point is lucrative, sure, but how will you know when we're at a low point? Should you have bought or sold Friday? Should you buy or sell this coming Monday? Answering these questions accurately is in fact hard.
- manigandham 7y ago
  Why are you looking for a low? The market was at a high and what you should've been looking for was a downturn. Timing days is impossible. Timing a trend over months is what I'm talking about, and anytime in the last 2 months was a good time to allocate 1-5% on making money or protecting your investments from a market drop. At this point, if your investments have lost value then sell some covered calls to make income while you stay out of the market. We have an entire summer of disrupted global trade coming, don't buy in until that's over.
  - throwaway373438 7y ago
    Whether looking for a low or a high the underlying challenge is identical.
koonsolo 7y ago
> Some basic timing is not all that hard and can easily double your gains. If it was that easy everyone would do it, or at least the "simple basic timing"-fund with twice the gain would be more popular than any etf. But probably more realistic you are just deluding yourself.
- manigandham 7y ago
  1) Plenty of funds have protected losses and even made gains with this market move. Buying puts as insurance, especially as volatility climbs, is standard operating procedure. 2) Hedge funds aren't open to the public and don't care about popularity. Their mandate is to limit volatility, not to maximize gains. That's why they might not match indexes in bull markets but outearn them in turbulent times. 3) There is an inflection point with capital where it gets much harder to make more because of changes in liquidity, transparency, and price action resulting from your moves. Independent traders can make 100% gains from large moves, a large fund could never do that unless it was an absolute perfect scenario. 4) I'm surprised that so many people find it hard to believe that months of constant negative news after 10 years of perfect bull run and frothy all-time highs does not signal a hint of a downturn. What more of a sign do you need? Nuclear war? 5) Ray Dalio did it in November 2019, and even made it clear that it was standard hedging: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-bridgewater-associates-1-billion-bet-stock-market-loss-2019-11-1028711471 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-br...
  - koonsolo 7y ago
    All your points just fall into pieces when you compare gains from ETF's vs funds. Practice has proven that fund managers can't beat the market, let alone double the gains. But if you can, you must be a millionaire. You would be the best fund manager in the world. Congratulations on your achievement! Edit: That would be an average of 14% gain a year... wow, such skill, amaze!
    - manigandham 7y ago
      I explained that hedge funds are not about maximizing gains. And yes, I earned over 150% last year, but no that's not possible when managing 10 figure portfolios with rules on volatility and securities. Neither has anything to do with seeing the numerous warning signs over the last 3 months pointing to increased risk of a downturn which was worth a small percentage on puts. If you want to be a completely passive buy-and-hold investor then that's fine, but you don't have to be a daytrader to make some basic adjustments for the next quarter based on global news.

throwaway373438 7y ago

Buying at a low point is lucrative, sure, but how will you know when we're at a low point? Should you have bought or sold Friday? Should you buy or sell this coming Monday? Answering these questions accurately is in fact hard.

manigandham 7y ago
Why are you looking for a low? The market was at a high and what you should've been looking for was a downturn. Timing days is impossible. Timing a trend over months is what I'm talking about, and anytime in the last 2 months was a good time to allocate 1-5% on making money or protecting your investments from a market drop. At this point, if your investments have lost value then sell some covered calls to make income while you stay out of the market. We have an entire summer of disrupted global trade coming, don't buy in until that's over.
- throwaway373438 7y ago
  Whether looking for a low or a high the underlying challenge is identical.

koonsolo 7y ago

> Some basic timing is not all that hard and can easily double your gains. If it was that easy everyone would do it, or at least the "simple basic timing"-fund with twice the gain would be more popular than any etf. But probably more realistic you are just deluding yourself.

manigandham 7y ago
1) Plenty of funds have protected losses and even made gains with this market move. Buying puts as insurance, especially as volatility climbs, is standard operating procedure. 2) Hedge funds aren't open to the public and don't care about popularity. Their mandate is to limit volatility, not to maximize gains. That's why they might not match indexes in bull markets but outearn them in turbulent times. 3) There is an inflection point with capital where it gets much harder to make more because of changes in liquidity, transparency, and price action resulting from your moves. Independent traders can make 100% gains from large moves, a large fund could never do that unless it was an absolute perfect scenario. 4) I'm surprised that so many people find it hard to believe that months of constant negative news after 10 years of perfect bull run and frothy all-time highs does not signal a hint of a downturn. What more of a sign do you need? Nuclear war? 5) Ray Dalio did it in November 2019, and even made it clear that it was standard hedging: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-bridgewater-associates-1-billion-bet-stock-market-loss-2019-11-1028711471 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-br...
- koonsolo 7y ago
  All your points just fall into pieces when you compare gains from ETF's vs funds. Practice has proven that fund managers can't beat the market, let alone double the gains. But if you can, you must be a millionaire. You would be the best fund manager in the world. Congratulations on your achievement! Edit: That would be an average of 14% gain a year... wow, such skill, amaze!
  - manigandham 7y ago
    I explained that hedge funds are not about maximizing gains. And yes, I earned over 150% last year, but no that's not possible when managing 10 figure portfolios with rules on volatility and securities. Neither has anything to do with seeing the numerous warning signs over the last 3 months pointing to increased risk of a downturn which was worth a small percentage on puts. If you want to be a completely passive buy-and-hold investor then that's fine, but you don't have to be a daytrader to make some basic adjustments for the next quarter based on global news.