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The textbook case is the 2004 tsunami and tourism in Thailand. Most of the destroyed infrastructure was replaced in about a year and tourist numbers (measured b
by zhdc1 7y ago
The textbook case is the 2004 tsunami and tourism in Thailand. Most of the destroyed infrastructure was replaced in about a year and tourist numbers (measured by number of passengers to Phuket Airport) recovered shortly thereafter.
The short-term effect of Covid-19 on Chinese manufacturing have been absolutely devistating - I honestly can't think of another feasible event that would cause the same level of slowdown that you saw last month. However the recover is in progress, and while it's going to take some time, odds are that everything will more or less return to normal in another couple of months.
- jdminhbg 7y ago> I honestly can't think of another feasible event that would cause the same level of slowdown that you saw last month. A war where shipping was disrupted would be much, much worse.
- zhdc1 7y agoI don't think so. Shipping, for instance, came to comparative stand still in 2009. Exports dropped more then than what was reported today for January, but it didn't have the same impact to the tertiary sector that Covid-19 undoubtedly had last month.
- jdminhbg 7y agoThere's a big difference between "there is a delay in producing or shipping your inputs to you" and "your inputs have been sunk and the country that produces them is at a state of war with us."
- zhdc1 7y agoNot really. In both cases what matters is whether the products were manufactured, shipped, and delivered. The latter case is actually more beneficial, since it implies that factories are running, people are working, and at least some products are being successfully shipped.