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No and no. Remote work irt Covid-19 was absolutely hated by most people in China once it lasted for more than a couple of days. Surprisingly enough, a lot of pe
by zhdc1 7y ago
No and no. Remote work irt Covid-19 was absolutely hated by most people in China once it lasted for more than a couple of days. Surprisingly enough, a lot of people actually like going to an office, where they can get away from their family and socialize.
On the second point, the economic damage from natural disasters is usually short and severe, with a quick recovery. Barring Covid-19 turning out to be a lot worse than the Spanish flu, most impacted regions will return to business as usual sooner (as in a couple of months) rather than later.
- ausbah 7y agoPandemics aren't really natural disasters are they? A natural disaster is physical phenomena, usually geologically or weather based, like hurricanes, earthquakes, tornados, etc. Recovery time from those types of events isn't very quick, espeically if the country is underdeveloped - look at how long it took Puerto Rico from Hurrican Harvey, Joplin from the 2011 tornado, Haiti's 2010 earthquake, etc.
- zhdc1 7y agoThe textbook case is the 2004 tsunami and tourism in Thailand. Most of the destroyed infrastructure was replaced in about a year and tourist numbers (measured by number of passengers to Phuket Airport) recovered shortly thereafter. The short-term effect of Covid-19 on Chinese manufacturing have been absolutely devistating - I honestly can't think of another feasible event that would cause the same level of slowdown that you saw last month. However the recover is in progress, and while it's going to take some time, odds are that everything will more or less return to normal in another couple of months.
- jdminhbg 7y ago> I honestly can't think of another feasible event that would cause the same level of slowdown that you saw last month. A war where shipping was disrupted would be much, much worse.
- zhdc1 7y agoI don't think so. Shipping, for instance, came to comparative stand still in 2009. Exports dropped more then than what was reported today for January, but it didn't have the same impact to the tertiary sector that Covid-19 undoubtedly had last month.
- jdminhbg 7y agoThere's a big difference between "there is a delay in producing or shipping your inputs to you" and "your inputs have been sunk and the country that produces them is at a state of war with us."
- zhdc1 7y agoNot really. In both cases what matters is whether the products were manufactured, shipped, and delivered. The latter case is actually more beneficial, since it implies that factories are running, people are working, and at least some products are being successfully shipped.
- chapium 7y agoThis is more like a season long blizzard.
- Igelau 7y ago> Recovery time from those types of events isn't very quick, espeically if the country is underdeveloped - look at how long it took Puerto Rico from Hurrican Harvey, Joplin from the 2011 tornado, Haiti's 2010 earthquake, etc. Yet we can still talk about those things happening within narrow slices of our own lifetimes. Contrast that with the Black Death that dealt deep enough damage that some parts of Europe didn't recover for generations. Centuries in some cases.
- TeMPOraL 7y agoThey aren't. A typical natural disaster is very localized and doesn't last long. A pandemic involves a pathogen that self-replicates at an exponential rate. The two are not even apples to oranges, but apples to primed grenades.