3 ms·

> https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/global-time-varying-transmission.html https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patt

> https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/global-time-varying-transmission.html https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... I found this link very interesting. It seems to show the reproduction number is decreasing quite fast in Italy (before the latest quarantine measures, making me wonder if they were really needed). In Korea, it's also just below 1, which would mark the end of the virus propagation if this is confirmed. If these numbers are accurate, it seems that the epidemics can be controlled without resorting to extreme measures. I'd be curious to get other people's opinions. I'm not quite sure I'm interpreting this data correctly.

lhl 7y ago
Yeah, certain countries seem to be doing a very good job at keeping the spread at bay. SK is doing the best job at mitigation. TW, HK, and SG have so far been very effective at containment. CN dropped to the ball to start, but it turns out they managed to take it seriously in time and it may be under control. Their biggest risk, ironically enough is probably going to be spread from international travelers. From today's new case report and death count (not to mention the 16M person lockdown of all of Lombardy), the worst may not be over for Italy yet (although I think they're doing the best job of the European countries from what I can see)... https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fffppj/italy_reports_1492_new_cases_of_coronavirus_and/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fffppj/italy_r... Of the 133 deaths today in Italy, it appears to be primarily older folks atm, but the reports of running out of ICU beds is not a good sign (anyone in serious condition, regardless of age, requires intubation at least): https://i.imgur.com/VYWdjEI.png https://i.imgur.com/VYWdjEI.png For those that aren't taking COVID-19 very very seriously, I'd recommend reading a frontline report from an Italian HCW: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ffa2tf/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/fjx5tc8/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ffa2tf/testimo... I'd also encourage everyone to take as many reasonable steps as possible to reduce the spread of infection (proper hygiene, avoiding crowds/public contact as much as possible, social distancing when unavoidable), as lowering the capacity pressure on the healthcare system will be key to saving lives, even if your personal risk is low. We'll be able to see on a country-by-country basis soon which governments/societies have responded the best, but as the WHO put it, "this is not a drill," and I hope everyone here stays safe.
- lonelappde 7y ago
  Old people dying is not a good sign either. Please show a little compassion for your elders.
  - lhl 7y ago
    I think that goes without saying and is the primary reason people should be concerned about slowing the spread irrespective of personal risk. The elderly death rate is as expected though - the Chinese epidemiological numbers show a close to 15% CFR for 80yo+ - if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, it's even more important that you do your best to avoid catching this.

lhl 7y ago

Yeah, certain countries seem to be doing a very good job at keeping the spread at bay. SK is doing the best job at mitigation. TW, HK, and SG have so far been very effective at containment. CN dropped to the ball to start, but it turns out they managed to take it seriously in time and it may be under control. Their biggest risk, ironically enough is probably going to be spread from international travelers. From today's new case report and death count (not to mention the 16M person lockdown of all of Lombardy), the worst may not be over for Italy yet (although I think they're doing the best job of the European countries from what I can see)... https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fffppj/italy_reports_1492_new_cases_of_coronavirus_and/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fffppj/italy_r... Of the 133 deaths today in Italy, it appears to be primarily older folks atm, but the reports of running out of ICU beds is not a good sign (anyone in serious condition, regardless of age, requires intubation at least): https://i.imgur.com/VYWdjEI.png https://i.imgur.com/VYWdjEI.png For those that aren't taking COVID-19 very very seriously, I'd recommend reading a frontline report from an Italian HCW: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ffa2tf/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/fjx5tc8/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ffa2tf/testimo... I'd also encourage everyone to take as many reasonable steps as possible to reduce the spread of infection (proper hygiene, avoiding crowds/public contact as much as possible, social distancing when unavoidable), as lowering the capacity pressure on the healthcare system will be key to saving lives, even if your personal risk is low. We'll be able to see on a country-by-country basis soon which governments/societies have responded the best, but as the WHO put it, "this is not a drill," and I hope everyone here stays safe.

lonelappde 7y ago
Old people dying is not a good sign either. Please show a little compassion for your elders.
- lhl 7y ago
  I think that goes without saying and is the primary reason people should be concerned about slowing the spread irrespective of personal risk. The elderly death rate is as expected though - the Chinese epidemiological numbers show a close to 15% CFR for 80yo+ - if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, it's even more important that you do your best to avoid catching this.