3 ms·

Edit: here’s a Lancet Editorial “COVID-19: too little, too late?” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30522-5/fulltext https://ww

Edit: here’s a Lancet Editorial “COVID-19: too little, too late?” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30522-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... * * * Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP. The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge: leaders and some media outlets continue to downplay risks, residents continue to blithely go about their everyday lives, large gatherings like church meetings and sporting events continue as usual, the CDC/FDA is still blocking sufficient testing around the country, hospitals and medical workers are not being sufficiently trained and prepared, and the supply of personal protective gear and ICU beds is not going to suffice. We have squandered 4–6 weeks of preparation for this crisis, and hundreds of thousands of people in the US may die as a result, with others experiencing permanent lung damage. China has shown that this virus can be managed if the number of patients stays low enough that infections are discovered early and patients are treated aggressively with antivirals, supplemental oxygen as soon as blood oxygen starts to drop, mechanical ventilators for severe cases, etc. People’s immune systems generally do fight this virus off if we can keep them breathing for long enough. But that depends on having enough hospital capacity. If everyone stays complacent and continues to mingle until there are hundreds of local deaths in each area it’s going to be a disaster. Edit 2: To everyone here: If you have what seems like a minor cold, even if you are a young adult, please stay away from people and don’t spread it. What is 2 weeks of minor cough and sore throat for you might become severe pneumonia requiring hospitalization for your parent or neighbor or coworker. If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc.

lettergram 7y ago
I had an interesting experience - my local hospital (which is actually a very good medical hospital). Has already called in every at risk (which I am) person and had them do a check up (and in my case an x-ray). They also have already stock piled masks and additional resources. The medical staff in the area are similarly mentally preparing, schools are prepping for the shutdown (at home school). I wouldn’t say the US is doing nothing, this is rural Illinois. There just isn’t much to do here until it’s a problem. But as soon as we get a few test positives schools are planning shutdown (I’m assuming gyms will be used for patients as necessary).
nolta 7y ago
In the last few days Ontario has found 2 cases of Covid-19 in people who recently travelled to the US: https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-new-positive-cases-of-covid-19-6.html https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n... https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-new-positive-cases-of-covid-19-4.html https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n... All the other cases we've seen were related to travel to Iran, Italy, Egypt, & China IIRC. EDIT: one was a woman who returned from Colorado on Mar 2, the other a man who returned from Las Vegas on Feb 28.
- molmalo 7y ago
  In Argentina a new case just confirmed some hours ago is from a young man coming back from a conference in Boston, MA.
war1025 7y ago
> If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc. Unfortunately this is effectively "let them eat cake" for many people. Keeping kids out of school means not going to work. Not going to work means not having money to pay the bills, and very possibly losing your job. In China, where the state has basically total control, things like this can be done. In the US, it's going to be a tough sell for an awful lot of people.
- po 7y ago
  Ask any taxpayer and they will tell you that the US also has total control. I get your point about not having the right to force people to do things (ie people ignoring mandatory hurricane evacuation orders) but they do have the power to make it such that the people who do want to stay home but can’t due to financial reasons can. If there were the will for it.
- jacobolus 7y ago
  I would feel a lot more comfortable if the USA had a testing setup like South Korea (where they have performed something like 500 times as many tests per capita as the USA, and then done aggressive isolation and contact tracing for positive cases). If it were up to me the federal government and state and local governments would be closing schools, closing nursing homes to visitors, canceling church services and sporting events, figuring out how to make transportation less risky, closing restaurants and bars to customers and drafting those workers to make deliverable prepared meals instead, recruiting childless people aged 15–40 into temporary (paid) public service jobs, doing everything possible to guarantee sufficient supply of protective equipment, taking every roadblock out from researching antiviral drugs for treating positive cases, etc. Governments should be figuring out how to guarantee anyone with untested minor colds to stay home from work without losing pay until they can be tested; figuring out how to temporarily relieve rent, loan payments, and taxes for people quarantined or with jobs in temporarily affected industries; preparing to distribute food, medicine, and other items to patients in quarantine or isolated at home, and so on. With a robust public response it should be possible to dramatically slow this virus without completely collapsing the economy. The fallout (not just illness/death but also economic impact) from all the cases hitting at once within a few weeks is going to be much more worse. I’m not sure exactly what the best responses would be, I’m just spitballing here. But it seems to me we should have been thinking and talking about possible extreme measures for the past 6 weeks instead of collectively twiddling our thumbs and going on with our ordinary lives.
gurumeditations 7y ago
Everybody who works any public-facing job will go to work with a “cold”, I guarantee it. I did. The alternative is losing said job. Welcome to America.

lettergram 7y ago

I had an interesting experience - my local hospital (which is actually a very good medical hospital). Has already called in every at risk (which I am) person and had them do a check up (and in my case an x-ray). They also have already stock piled masks and additional resources. The medical staff in the area are similarly mentally preparing, schools are prepping for the shutdown (at home school). I wouldn’t say the US is doing nothing, this is rural Illinois. There just isn’t much to do here until it’s a problem. But as soon as we get a few test positives schools are planning shutdown (I’m assuming gyms will be used for patients as necessary).

nolta 7y ago

In the last few days Ontario has found 2 cases of Covid-19 in people who recently travelled to the US: https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-new-positive-cases-of-covid-19-6.html https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n... https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-new-positive-cases-of-covid-19-4.html https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n... All the other cases we've seen were related to travel to Iran, Italy, Egypt, & China IIRC. EDIT: one was a woman who returned from Colorado on Mar 2, the other a man who returned from Las Vegas on Feb 28.

molmalo 7y ago
In Argentina a new case just confirmed some hours ago is from a young man coming back from a conference in Boston, MA.

war1025 7y ago

> If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc. Unfortunately this is effectively "let them eat cake" for many people. Keeping kids out of school means not going to work. Not going to work means not having money to pay the bills, and very possibly losing your job. In China, where the state has basically total control, things like this can be done. In the US, it's going to be a tough sell for an awful lot of people.

po 7y ago
Ask any taxpayer and they will tell you that the US also has total control. I get your point about not having the right to force people to do things (ie people ignoring mandatory hurricane evacuation orders) but they do have the power to make it such that the people who do want to stay home but can’t due to financial reasons can. If there were the will for it.
jacobolus 7y ago
I would feel a lot more comfortable if the USA had a testing setup like South Korea (where they have performed something like 500 times as many tests per capita as the USA, and then done aggressive isolation and contact tracing for positive cases). If it were up to me the federal government and state and local governments would be closing schools, closing nursing homes to visitors, canceling church services and sporting events, figuring out how to make transportation less risky, closing restaurants and bars to customers and drafting those workers to make deliverable prepared meals instead, recruiting childless people aged 15–40 into temporary (paid) public service jobs, doing everything possible to guarantee sufficient supply of protective equipment, taking every roadblock out from researching antiviral drugs for treating positive cases, etc. Governments should be figuring out how to guarantee anyone with untested minor colds to stay home from work without losing pay until they can be tested; figuring out how to temporarily relieve rent, loan payments, and taxes for people quarantined or with jobs in temporarily affected industries; preparing to distribute food, medicine, and other items to patients in quarantine or isolated at home, and so on. With a robust public response it should be possible to dramatically slow this virus without completely collapsing the economy. The fallout (not just illness/death but also economic impact) from all the cases hitting at once within a few weeks is going to be much more worse. I’m not sure exactly what the best responses would be, I’m just spitballing here. But it seems to me we should have been thinking and talking about possible extreme measures for the past 6 weeks instead of collectively twiddling our thumbs and going on with our ordinary lives.

gurumeditations 7y ago

Everybody who works any public-facing job will go to work with a “cold”, I guarantee it. I did. The alternative is losing said job. Welcome to America.