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China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.htm

China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.

microcolonel 7y ago
> Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered. But also, at least 3,097 people out of the 80,699 have already died, and by the same measure, 20,283 of the confirmed have yet to recover.
- d0mine 7y ago
  The death ratio should only increase as the medical resources are exhausted
  - melling 7y ago
    If the curve has flatlined in China and only 20,283 remain, China should not have a further problem with resources. The rest of the world, of course, is just getting started.
    - geggam 7y ago
      What happens when infected soul from US / other place visits china ? Is there an immunity built up in infected people or does the clock reset ? You cant quarantine the world and expect a global economy to survive
      - DailyHN 7y ago
        Gotta love the people that see people dying and are most concerned about the economy.
        geggam 7y ago
        I am not worried about the economy as in I need to get rich ( Im not close) but realistically if no one is making money the impact of folks being out of work and unable to buy food starts to weigh in. The simple fact most countries are interdependent ( see : Toilet paper) is a real issue.
        gizmo686 7y ago
        How do you think people get food, shelter, medicine, and other necessities? The rich can wait out a downturn. It is the poor who will struggle.
        vanniv 7y ago
        Stopping the world economy will kill many millions more people than COVID-19 could dream of
        DailyHN 7y ago
        What does stopping the world economy entail?
        vanniv 7y ago
        In the context of this post: the kind of quarantine where nobody is allowed to venture far from their homes. Where goods can't travel from where they are made to where they could be sold, or worse can't be made because nobody is allowed to leave home to go make them. Where we isolate each country from the others, each state/province/region, each everywhere. Where commerce is effectively ended due to the inability of people to participate in it.
        vanniv 7y ago
        It's been 2 days, and already the food markets are running out. With no resupply available for weeks at a minimum, people are.going to get mighty hungry. Funny how quickly the HN crowd cheers for these incredible restrictions on life and freedom, and yet pretend not to favor totalitarianism
    - d0mine 7y ago
      If if the curve flattens for the World early, then obviously the medical resources won't be exhausted. I don't know how long the exponential growth might continue.
cklaus 7y ago
China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- maxerickson 7y ago
  Why? We're a bunch of paranoid lunatics, primed to avoid each other.
  - hurrdurr2 7y ago
    Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax. In CA btw.
    - gwright 7y ago
      > Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality. 1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19. 2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his presidency/competency. 3) Democrats react to 2) and accuse Trump of labeling COVID-19 a "hoax". 4) Bipartisan collection of journalist pointed out that 3) is bogus and 2) is what was said. 5) hurrdurr2's comment appears to be a variation of 3) relative to 2). 6) this comment is an attempt to point out this history and correct the record similar to 4) I'm taking no stance here on 1) as it really depends what specific criticism is being evaluated. Some of it was/is reasonable and some of it was/is ill-founded. I have no idea what exactly motivated all the bullshit associated with 3) but it was some combination or poor reading comprehension, slopping rumor mongering, or disgusting politicization of a major public health crisis.
m3kw9 7y ago
China is in a different phase where it seems they have surpressed it rather than contained it. which means if they loosen up the lock down it could revert. It’s also an economic disaster that are trying contain from all the lock down.
- greenhatman 7y ago
  I don't understand the difference between surpressed and contained? Yeah, if they stop containing it, it will start spreading again...
  - Retric 7y ago
    Suppressed means there is continued transmission, contained means that’s stopped. Rabies is suppressed with a continuing threat from wild animal populations. The recent Ebola virus outbreak on the other hand is an example of containment in action, with zero active cases at this point. The only long term success for suppression is from a vaccine. Contained on the other hand means every infected person can gain immunity and the virus would then run out of new hosts.
    - empath75 7y ago
      Well if they manage to keep it suppressed they can keep the health care system from collapsing at least.

microcolonel 7y ago

> Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered. But also, at least 3,097 people out of the 80,699 have already died, and by the same measure, 20,283 of the confirmed have yet to recover.

d0mine 7y ago
The death ratio should only increase as the medical resources are exhausted
- melling 7y ago
  If the curve has flatlined in China and only 20,283 remain, China should not have a further problem with resources. The rest of the world, of course, is just getting started.
  - geggam 7y ago
    What happens when infected soul from US / other place visits china ? Is there an immunity built up in infected people or does the clock reset ? You cant quarantine the world and expect a global economy to survive
    - DailyHN 7y ago
      Gotta love the people that see people dying and are most concerned about the economy.
      - geggam 7y ago
        I am not worried about the economy as in I need to get rich ( Im not close) but realistically if no one is making money the impact of folks being out of work and unable to buy food starts to weigh in. The simple fact most countries are interdependent ( see : Toilet paper) is a real issue.
      - gizmo686 7y ago
        How do you think people get food, shelter, medicine, and other necessities? The rich can wait out a downturn. It is the poor who will struggle.
      - vanniv 7y ago
        Stopping the world economy will kill many millions more people than COVID-19 could dream of
        DailyHN 7y ago
        What does stopping the world economy entail?
        vanniv 7y ago
        In the context of this post: the kind of quarantine where nobody is allowed to venture far from their homes. Where goods can't travel from where they are made to where they could be sold, or worse can't be made because nobody is allowed to leave home to go make them. Where we isolate each country from the others, each state/province/region, each everywhere. Where commerce is effectively ended due to the inability of people to participate in it.
        vanniv 7y ago
        It's been 2 days, and already the food markets are running out. With no resupply available for weeks at a minimum, people are.going to get mighty hungry. Funny how quickly the HN crowd cheers for these incredible restrictions on life and freedom, and yet pretend not to favor totalitarianism
  - d0mine 7y ago
    If if the curve flattens for the World early, then obviously the medical resources won't be exhausted. I don't know how long the exponential growth might continue.

cklaus 7y ago

China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
maxerickson 7y ago
Why? We're a bunch of paranoid lunatics, primed to avoid each other.
- hurrdurr2 7y ago
  Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax. In CA btw.
  - gwright 7y ago
    > Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality. 1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19. 2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his presidency/competency. 3) Democrats react to 2) and accuse Trump of labeling COVID-19 a "hoax". 4) Bipartisan collection of journalist pointed out that 3) is bogus and 2) is what was said. 5) hurrdurr2's comment appears to be a variation of 3) relative to 2). 6) this comment is an attempt to point out this history and correct the record similar to 4) I'm taking no stance here on 1) as it really depends what specific criticism is being evaluated. Some of it was/is reasonable and some of it was/is ill-founded. I have no idea what exactly motivated all the bullshit associated with 3) but it was some combination or poor reading comprehension, slopping rumor mongering, or disgusting politicization of a major public health crisis.

m3kw9 7y ago

China is in a different phase where it seems they have surpressed it rather than contained it. which means if they loosen up the lock down it could revert. It’s also an economic disaster that are trying contain from all the lock down.

greenhatman 7y ago
I don't understand the difference between surpressed and contained? Yeah, if they stop containing it, it will start spreading again...
- Retric 7y ago
  Suppressed means there is continued transmission, contained means that’s stopped. Rabies is suppressed with a continuing threat from wild animal populations. The recent Ebola virus outbreak on the other hand is an example of containment in action, with zero active cases at this point. The only long term success for suppression is from a vaccine. Contained on the other hand means every infected person can gain immunity and the virus would then run out of new hosts.
  - empath75 7y ago
    Well if they manage to keep it suppressed they can keep the health care system from collapsing at least.