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Most of Korea's cases were discovered since late February and have not had a chance to either recover or die (i.e., the numerator is right-censored). Expect the
by lern_too_spel 7y ago
Most of Korea's cases were discovered since late February and have not had a chance to either recover or die (i.e., the numerator is right-censored). Expect the CFR to rise there.
- lifthrasiir 7y agoYou are right. If you want some other statistics, as of 2020-03-07 there were 59 patients [1] that are under respiratory support or oxygen therapy and thus considered "severe". [1] https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017 https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Fjolsvith 7y agoOr not. What about all the infected people who haven't had symptoms serious enough to warrant seeing a doctor and getting tested positive for Coronavirus?
- lern_too_spel 7y agoThat is a constant factor on the denominator, which is lower in Korea than elsewhere due to the availability of 10-minute drive-through tests. The factor on the numerator will be much higher at the start of an epidemic and go down to 1 when it completes. The estimated average time to die for those who die from COVID-19 is 28 days. 28 days ago, Korea had fewer than 50 cases total.
- alexilliamson 7y agoHow is the number of mild, untested cases a constant factor? If less serious patients start to get tested more frequently, this number will change.
- lern_too_spel 7y ago> If less serious patients start to get tested more frequently, this number will change. If everyone were tested, the denominator goes up by some constant factor. In Korea, people are already being tested at the first sign of cold symptoms.
- Fjolsvith 7y agoThe vaccines will change all these numbers.