5 ms·
Germany is not testing nearly enough people. There are lots of reports of people with legitimate concerns that did not find a way to get tested. Northern italy
by chefkoch 7y ago
Germany is not testing nearly enough people.
There are lots of reports of people with legitimate concerns that did not find a way to get tested.
Northern italy is like 2 hours by car and each weekend thousands drive there for a short trip.
- svara 7y agoSomething needs to explain the difference though between 939:0 in Germany and, e.g., 949:11 in France. Maybe the diagnoses in Germany are closer in time to infections? That would still point to a higher reporting rate in Germany vs. other countries.
- usrusr 7y agoFrance has had a continuous epidemic since early on, but Germany successfully contained the first outbreak (thanks to one phone call from China at the right time), then it was all quiet for a while and only now Germany is catching up in case count, at a very high speed. This means that Frances, with a comparable total, has far more cases that are old enough to have already played out negatively.
- svara 7y agoThat's not true, case numbers in France and Germany are highly correlated. What you are saying would imply a substantial difference in growth rate between the two countries, which is easily disproved by looking at the data.
- ernesth 7y agoGermany and France have had very parallel number of cases: see https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_... The first case in Germany was 3 days after the first in France. They reached 4 cases the same day. When France hit 11 cases, Germany already had 13 and for 15 days they both only got 1 to 3 more cases in total. They both began increasing a lot on the 26th of February.
- usrusr 7y agoI haven't followed the French situation closely, are the late February cases in France clearly unrelated to early February cases or could they be the result of a phase of undetected spread?
- mygo 7y agoYou’re assuming that the reporting in Germany is the same as the reporting in France. While they reached 4 cases the same day, that doesn’t mean that they had the same number of unknown infections. Let’s say France had 10x as many unknown infections than Germany. How would that impact the disparity in death count? And is this even a large enough sample size for that disparity to not just be explained to a high degree by mere chance?
- keymone 7y ago> Germany is not testing nearly enough people Source? I’ve heard exactly the opposite - Germany is testing the whole cluster as soon as infection is found. That explains the low mortality.
- xatxat 7y agoIn Germany they are tracking down clusters. As a random person you won't get tested, unless you visited a risky region, had contact with an infected person or your doctor orders a test for you. As a German, this strategy makes sense to me.
- efdee 7y agoConsidering the shortage of reagentia for these tests, that definitely makes sense. Belgium only does tests on people who have recently been in regions at risk (China, Italy) or who have symptoms of pneumonia. 200 infected to date, zero deaths (so far).
- keymone 7y agoYep, that’s my understanding too and it makes perfect sense.
- eggie 7y agoThe low mortality is likely due to the recent introduction of the virus into the community there. It takes weeks to go from infection to ICU.