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Nassim Taleb suggests Musk doesn’t understand risk in complex systems
- curiousgal 7y agoNassim Taleb got lucky trading during the 80s and he would not let us hear the end of it. He is smart and all but his language and writing style spike my BS meter.
- alpineidyll3 7y agoLately he's been trying to maintain profile by lazily inciting feuds on twitter, and publishing tracts of Wikipedia articles on stats formatted in mathematica as deep research. I like at least half his hot takes, but am turned off by the attention hunger implicit in his random trolling. Can't tell if he does this to keep money flowing into universa which is otherwise a poorly run fund or what.
- aguyfromnb 7y agoI'm not a huge fan of NNT. He's a jerk on Twitter (so is Musk), but he's not the first expert-in-his-field to call Musk out for not knowing what he's talking about. The latest incident being Musk's irresponsible comments on Covid-19.
- justanotherhn 7y agoHow are his comments irresponsible? All he said is that the panic is dumb. That's it. Are you are suggesting that people should be panicking? Which includes stockpiling, paranoia and racism disguised as fear of the virus. Definition: A sudden, overpowering feeling of fear, often affecting many people at once
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- IG_Semmelweiss 7y agoYes. Because if they did not, its possible that a worst-case scenario would rapidly spiral out of control into a society-collapse like outcome. The 2% death rate is irrelevant. What matters is the complex systems (and responses) that would be triggered by such death rates. Paranoia makes sense because it will keep us alive as a society. (regardless of individually questionable decisions).
- aguyfromnb 7y ago>How are his comments irresponsible? All he said is that the panic is dumb. That's it. That isn't "all he said"; you could try reading his Tweets on the matter: "Virality of C19 is overstated due to conflating diagnosis date with contraction date & over-extrapolating exponential growth, which is never what happens in reality. Keep extrapolating & virus will exceed mass of known universe!" This is just utter nonsense. It's gibberish, coming from a guy who uses the term "exponential growth" all the time when it comes to his factory production. Virality is a social media term for crying out loud. >Definition: A sudden, overpowering feeling of fear, often affecting many people at once It's your and Elon's opinion that people are panicking.
- csomar 7y agoHe claims to have made millions in the 2008-2009 crisis but provides little proof for his claim. It's not even clear if he made any serious money from trading. He seems to be milking some money, however, from books and from some shady mini-certificate that costs $2950 for a couple days[+]. [+]: https://realworldrisk.com/details.html https://realworldrisk.com/details.html
- BubRoss 7y agoI couldn't read past the first twelve pages of his book since he hadn't moved on from restating how great he was.
- appleshore 7y agoI generally like the Drudge Report, but his headlines do seem like he’s been effected by the same temptations of cable and online news. It creates this effect where you visit more / watch more news. It makes it very difficult to understand reality. I wish all this energy and attention could somehow be harnessed into testing 100x more people and making a vaccine. And for us regular people, just do what we can to be safe and go on with our lives.
- QUFB 7y agoDerek Lowe, as always, has some great insight into possible treatments and vaccine development (and drug discovery in general): https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/06/covid-19-small-molecule-therapies-reviewed https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/06/co...
- Bombthecat 7y agoMeh, i think that this is part of beeing an entrepreneur. You don't consider the risks as high as others.
- AzzieElbab 7y agoBest case scenario - Musk is being dishonest
- justanotherhn 7y agoTwitter is a place where people will take the contrarian point to the most obvious of statements to "dunk" on people who they perceive as the goliath in their warped view of reality. Nassim knew damn well what Elon meant with his tweet and chose to misinterpret it. [0] [0] “If the word ‘panic’ means ‘exaggerated’ reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one"
- vanniv 7y agoPermabear/crisis geek complains that people not panicking just don't understand that we are all gonna die again. News at 11.
- smallcharleston 7y agoNassim Taleb suggests everybody but Nassim Taleb doesn’t understand risk in complex systems.