5 ms·

Seems reasonable to implement cancelations of movies, public gatherings, weddings, funerals etc. The best we can do is slow it down until there is a vaccine.

vvanders 7y ago
"Flattening the curve"[1] has a huge impact on mortality rates, just because people may not personally need hospitalization doesn't mean it won't save lives by reducing the strain on the healthcare systems. [1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESizCK7UYAAxIBa?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESizCK7UYAAxIBa?format=jpg&name=...
- scarmig 7y ago
  This is pretty key. Halving the rate of transmission doesn't sound too impressive, but it can decrease mortality by 80%+. That's why you got very scary mortalities in Hubei (3%+) and serious but less apocalyptic elsewhere (<0.5%). COVID-19 is highly treatable, but it has to be treated.
danharaj 7y ago
At this point new cases in China are declining. They may have misstepped seriously at first but their heavy handed response seems to be working out now.
- celticninja 7y ago
  From what they tell us.
- nkkollaw 7y ago
  You mean hiding the numbers..? If not, it's just hard to believe.
  - knzhou 7y ago
    That's what doctors and experts who have actually visited China are telling us. Temporary hospitals are shutting down, emergency rooms are getting emptier, test queues are getting shorter, factory production, traffic, and air pollution are going back up. Ask anybody you know who lives in China, it's obvious to them.
  - joshuamorton 7y ago
    If they're hiding the numbers, they're doing it across the board: infectious disease case numbers across the board are down, not just corona. This is true in China and in South Korea.
    - nkkollaw 7y ago
      Let's hope so!
- sfifs 7y ago
  People I know (outside Hubei) in the megacities are already back in office (cautiously). The management felt confident enough to also request the expats to fly back and join (most had left before CNY which is when this started blowing up). So I'd say not just working but close to back on track. Same with Singapore, due to the close family and business connections to China, there was a flurry of early cases but rapid contact tracing and quarantine has slowed the spread.
  - scarmig 7y ago
    I'm in Beijing, and I spent yesterday afternoon walking through the park. I easily walked pass hundreds of people: it's fairly active. Some people were even gasp removing their masks. Cafes and restaurants are opening again. The big risk for Beijing (and the rest of the country except Wuhan) right now is importation of foreign cases. It came at significant economic cost, but China's quarantine worked, and the processes established will likely continue to help protect China from another outbreak from re-importation.
nkkollaw 7y ago
Seems like a good course of action..?

vvanders 7y ago

"Flattening the curve"[1] has a huge impact on mortality rates, just because people may not personally need hospitalization doesn't mean it won't save lives by reducing the strain on the healthcare systems. [1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESizCK7UYAAxIBa?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESizCK7UYAAxIBa?format=jpg&name=...

scarmig 7y ago
This is pretty key. Halving the rate of transmission doesn't sound too impressive, but it can decrease mortality by 80%+. That's why you got very scary mortalities in Hubei (3%+) and serious but less apocalyptic elsewhere (<0.5%). COVID-19 is highly treatable, but it has to be treated.

danharaj 7y ago

At this point new cases in China are declining. They may have misstepped seriously at first but their heavy handed response seems to be working out now.

celticninja 7y ago
From what they tell us.
nkkollaw 7y ago
You mean hiding the numbers..? If not, it's just hard to believe.
- knzhou 7y ago
  That's what doctors and experts who have actually visited China are telling us. Temporary hospitals are shutting down, emergency rooms are getting emptier, test queues are getting shorter, factory production, traffic, and air pollution are going back up. Ask anybody you know who lives in China, it's obvious to them.
- joshuamorton 7y ago
  If they're hiding the numbers, they're doing it across the board: infectious disease case numbers across the board are down, not just corona. This is true in China and in South Korea.
  - nkkollaw 7y ago
    Let's hope so!
sfifs 7y ago
People I know (outside Hubei) in the megacities are already back in office (cautiously). The management felt confident enough to also request the expats to fly back and join (most had left before CNY which is when this started blowing up). So I'd say not just working but close to back on track. Same with Singapore, due to the close family and business connections to China, there was a flurry of early cases but rapid contact tracing and quarantine has slowed the spread.
- scarmig 7y ago
  I'm in Beijing, and I spent yesterday afternoon walking through the park. I easily walked pass hundreds of people: it's fairly active. Some people were even gasp removing their masks. Cafes and restaurants are opening again. The big risk for Beijing (and the rest of the country except Wuhan) right now is importation of foreign cases. It came at significant economic cost, but China's quarantine worked, and the processes established will likely continue to help protect China from another outbreak from re-importation.

nkkollaw 7y ago

Seems like a good course of action..?