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That's true for flu and others. Instead of closing schools people at risk should be very cautious. The question is how much more contegious it is than flu. Unle

That's true for flu and others. Instead of closing schools people at risk should be very cautious. The question is how much more contegious it is than flu. Unless it's order of magnitude higher, there is no reason to close schools and ban travel.

JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Not quite. Its not going to be ok if this is 'just as contagious', because outcomes are likely much worse. We'll want to be 10x more careful; closing schools is then a reasonable strategy.
- tinyhouse 7y ago
  Maybe. Saying the outcome is much worse is too early. There are many numbers reported that are likely incorrect. The Corona ship had around 700 people infected and less than one precent died (six people). All were 70+. We don't know if they had any pre-existing conditions but at least two of the people who died were close to 90. That's much lower than some of the numbers coming from China and Italy. But at least we can trust the numbers from the ship since it was a "controlled experiment".
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    It was a terrible controlled experiment. Mostly older people go on cruise ships. We learned about one demographic only from that sample. The disease is harsh, kills too many in alarming ways (lung cascade reaction) and leaves survivors with lifelong debilitating damage. This is not like normal flu, and not a thing to be dismissed nor marginalized.
    - tinyhouse 7y ago
      If mostly older people go on cruises as you say then it's even better news. If less that 1% died on that ship then the general population mortality rate should be even lower.
      - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
        Wealthy, fit older people without medical conditions?
        tinyhouse 7y ago
        Fit? That's a funny assumption to make. If it was something like a hiking trip then it would've been a fair assumption. Wealthy? Probably. Healthy? To a certain degree makes sense too. I just read somewhere that at least 1000 people on the ship were 70+. I'd take a young person's immune system over any 70+ year old any day. Any way you look at it, the numbers on the ship are much more positive than a lot of what's reported in the media. More importantly, they are also more trustworthy in my opinion. The main reason is that there are fewer unknowns.
ineedasername 7y ago
Schools already close regularly every year if enough kids are getting sick, Happens all the time. With outcomes for COVID-19 potentially an order of magnitude worse school closures make at least as much sense for this too.

JoeAltmaier 7y ago

Not quite. Its not going to be ok if this is 'just as contagious', because outcomes are likely much worse. We'll want to be 10x more careful; closing schools is then a reasonable strategy.

tinyhouse 7y ago
Maybe. Saying the outcome is much worse is too early. There are many numbers reported that are likely incorrect. The Corona ship had around 700 people infected and less than one precent died (six people). All were 70+. We don't know if they had any pre-existing conditions but at least two of the people who died were close to 90. That's much lower than some of the numbers coming from China and Italy. But at least we can trust the numbers from the ship since it was a "controlled experiment".
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  It was a terrible controlled experiment. Mostly older people go on cruise ships. We learned about one demographic only from that sample. The disease is harsh, kills too many in alarming ways (lung cascade reaction) and leaves survivors with lifelong debilitating damage. This is not like normal flu, and not a thing to be dismissed nor marginalized.
  - tinyhouse 7y ago
    If mostly older people go on cruises as you say then it's even better news. If less that 1% died on that ship then the general population mortality rate should be even lower.
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      Wealthy, fit older people without medical conditions?
      - tinyhouse 7y ago
        Fit? That's a funny assumption to make. If it was something like a hiking trip then it would've been a fair assumption. Wealthy? Probably. Healthy? To a certain degree makes sense too. I just read somewhere that at least 1000 people on the ship were 70+. I'd take a young person's immune system over any 70+ year old any day. Any way you look at it, the numbers on the ship are much more positive than a lot of what's reported in the media. More importantly, they are also more trustworthy in my opinion. The main reason is that there are fewer unknowns.

ineedasername 7y ago

Schools already close regularly every year if enough kids are getting sick, Happens all the time. With outcomes for COVID-19 potentially an order of magnitude worse school closures make at least as much sense for this too.