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Ask HN: Why is Italy hit so hard with the Covid-19 virus?

24 points by danielovichdk 7y ago

Why is it Italy that is hit hardest right after China?

streetcat1 7y ago
Because Italy economy is driven by tourism, which means that it cannot ban flight from china (or other places). Hence the virus has a chance to migrate to different locations. Also, tourists, tend to travel (a lot) within the country, which means that the virus rapidly migrates inside the country. And, it also cannot mandate complete public shutdown, which gave the virus a chance to start a community spread. Once a community spreads starts, this is effectively a denial of service attack on the health care system, and this is what happening now.
- detaro 7y ago
  Italy has the largest shutdown areas of all of Europe, and did so quite quickly after cases were detected?
  - eveningcoffee 7y ago
    My doctor explained to me that it is not possible to shutdown Italy by asking nice. They closed the schools, people went to hang around the down.
- dotcoma 7y ago
  Actually, Italy banned direct flights from China more than a month ago, well before the outbreak, and took harsh criticism from China. https://www.aerospace-technology.com/news/italy-israel-ban-flights-china/ https://www.aerospace-technology.com/news/italy-israel-ban-f...
  - netsharc 7y ago
    Didn't China ban their tourist groups from departing? But that happened a while after the outbreak became well known, to speculate an answer to the Ask HN question, maybe there was a tourist group from Wuhan that got many Italians infected. A German blogger (fefe) is also asking if the Chinese "sweatshops" in Italy might have something to do with it (article about these textile factories: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/02/italys-biggest-chinese-community-clashes-with-police-near-florence https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/02/italys-biggest... )
    - dotcoma 7y ago
      As far as I know, China stopped flights only from the Wuhan and the other main cities that were affected; Italy stopped all flights from China. Did the problem originate from Chinese tourists in Italy? Two cases in Rome, as far as I know, about a month ago; both were treated and have recovered. There are no major problems in the city of Prato; also, as far as I know, there are no large Chinese communities in the areas where things are really bad.
DrNuke 7y ago
Because the North of the country is as productive as Germany and one of the most used East-West passage route. Add to this the highest number of tests in Western Europe, which are free and covered by the national health system, and a lot asymptomatic cases. Still, today’s numbers are really worrying, with the government measures still unable to contain the spread and northern hospitals now going into real pressure.
- lainga 7y ago
  The high number of tests is the key. Italy has a high number of reported cases. But that is not the same as actual incidence of the disease. As an illustrative example: is it really probable that nobody in central Asia has the disease?
ramblerman 7y ago
I’m not sure it is. Look up tests per capita. As of March 2nd Italy was at 386 and USA was at 1 To look at found cases and assume that is a reflection of reality at this point is wishful thinking
- Someone 7y ago
  They also have more reported deaths than other countries that aren’t China (233 so far). I don’t think the USA or other countries in Europe significantly underreport those.
anotheryou 7y ago
Judging by this graph (log scale... ): https://preview.redd.it/bcvp26b3g4l41.png?width=1055&format=png&auto=webp&s=268968c8b877888aa6b964f123d20f7ca6d946a8 https://preview.redd.it/bcvp26b3g4l41.png?width=1055&format=... It just got hit the earliest so it's already that bad. It will hit more at the same strength. source: https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fekqib/daily_graphic_20200306_development_of_case/ https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fekqib/daily_gra...
- fuzzfactor 7y ago
  Looks like it's exponential growth and Italy just started early.
italianquestion 7y ago
There is something weird going on. There are only ~4000 confirmed cases in Italy but people in multiple countries returning back from Italy bring the virus with them. How they manage to find these infected people out millions of Italians? Can somebody explain this to non-virologist?
- thinkingemote 7y ago
  I'm also puzzled. Maybe there is a super spreader in the airport?
sfusato 7y ago
1. You can't find it if you don't look for it. Italy did more tests than the rest of Europe combined. Source as of 2nd of March (a bit old by now, but hey): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ 2. Italy was the first country in Europe to ban direct flights with China. 3. Really took some hard, unpopular decisions regarding quarantine and containment. Lombardy and Veneto are the main engine of the country. 4. Together with Japan, has one of the oldest, age wise, populations on the planet, the most fragile in this moment (reason for the high mortality rate). 5. Schools and university closed until April. Entire provinces will be in quarantine (no entry/exit unless for urgent reasons) .etc. I hope other countries in Europe won't be in a worse situation in a few weeks time due to the delayed start they had. I think Italy did the best by searching as wide as possible even if this wrongly painted them as the source of the spreading in Europe. But, in the long run, it was for the best.
znpy 7y ago
1. Italy did a lot more testing 2. We only know about china's infection rate what china wants us to know. given that there is no free press there, anyone talking about coronavirus in china should take china-provided information with a grain of salt. 3. as soon as other countries start properly testing, they'll get "hit" too.
superflit 7y ago
Because of Hand-to-Hand contact. Have you ever seen Italians speaking? They speak and use their hands to support the talk, doing explanations and emphasis on hands gestures. As they speak saliva goes in the air and land in the hands and as they touch other surfaces contaminating it.
- gbrindisi 7y ago
  When you wrote on your profile page "Just a simple guy..." you were not kidding.
  - superflit 7y ago
    I am glad you can detect sarcasm. From Trento with love!
eanthy 7y ago
Because italian/spanish love to kiss each other as a salute and hug and all kinds of physical contact as opposed to english for example who wouldn't. Hence virus is easier to spread there.
- gbrindisi 7y ago
  This is ludicrous. If that was true then why Spain is not (yet) hit as hard? (Am I on reddit?)
  - eanthy 7y ago
    it's among the hardest hit ones, there's a reason why more developed countries don't get it as bad

24 points by danielovichdk 7y ago

Why is it Italy that is hit hardest right after China?

Because Italy economy is driven by tourism, which means that it cannot ban flight from china (or other places). Hence the virus has a chance to migrate to different locations. Also, tourists, tend to travel (a lot) within the country, which means that the virus rapidly migrates inside the country. And, it also cannot mandate complete public shutdown, which gave the virus a chance to start a community spread. Once a community spreads starts, this is effectively a denial of service attack on the health care system, and this is what happening now.

detaro 7y ago
Italy has the largest shutdown areas of all of Europe, and did so quite quickly after cases were detected?
- eveningcoffee 7y ago
  My doctor explained to me that it is not possible to shutdown Italy by asking nice. They closed the schools, people went to hang around the down.
dotcoma 7y ago
Actually, Italy banned direct flights from China more than a month ago, well before the outbreak, and took harsh criticism from China. https://www.aerospace-technology.com/news/italy-israel-ban-flights-china/ https://www.aerospace-technology.com/news/italy-israel-ban-f...
- netsharc 7y ago
  Didn't China ban their tourist groups from departing? But that happened a while after the outbreak became well known, to speculate an answer to the Ask HN question, maybe there was a tourist group from Wuhan that got many Italians infected. A German blogger (fefe) is also asking if the Chinese "sweatshops" in Italy might have something to do with it (article about these textile factories: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/02/italys-biggest-chinese-community-clashes-with-police-near-florence https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/02/italys-biggest... )
  - dotcoma 7y ago
    As far as I know, China stopped flights only from the Wuhan and the other main cities that were affected; Italy stopped all flights from China. Did the problem originate from Chinese tourists in Italy? Two cases in Rome, as far as I know, about a month ago; both were treated and have recovered. There are no major problems in the city of Prato; also, as far as I know, there are no large Chinese communities in the areas where things are really bad.

DrNuke 7y ago

Because the North of the country is as productive as Germany and one of the most used East-West passage route. Add to this the highest number of tests in Western Europe, which are free and covered by the national health system, and a lot asymptomatic cases. Still, today’s numbers are really worrying, with the government measures still unable to contain the spread and northern hospitals now going into real pressure.

lainga 7y ago
The high number of tests is the key. Italy has a high number of reported cases. But that is not the same as actual incidence of the disease. As an illustrative example: is it really probable that nobody in central Asia has the disease?

ramblerman 7y ago

I’m not sure it is. Look up tests per capita. As of March 2nd Italy was at 386 and USA was at 1 To look at found cases and assume that is a reflection of reality at this point is wishful thinking

Someone 7y ago
They also have more reported deaths than other countries that aren’t China (233 so far). I don’t think the USA or other countries in Europe significantly underreport those.

anotheryou 7y ago

Judging by this graph (log scale... ): https://preview.redd.it/bcvp26b3g4l41.png?width=1055&format=png&auto=webp&s=268968c8b877888aa6b964f123d20f7ca6d946a8 https://preview.redd.it/bcvp26b3g4l41.png?width=1055&format=... It just got hit the earliest so it's already that bad. It will hit more at the same strength. source: https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fekqib/daily_graphic_20200306_development_of_case/ https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fekqib/daily_gra...

fuzzfactor 7y ago
Looks like it's exponential growth and Italy just started early.

italianquestion 7y ago

There is something weird going on. There are only ~4000 confirmed cases in Italy but people in multiple countries returning back from Italy bring the virus with them. How they manage to find these infected people out millions of Italians? Can somebody explain this to non-virologist?

thinkingemote 7y ago
I'm also puzzled. Maybe there is a super spreader in the airport?

sfusato 7y ago

1. You can't find it if you don't look for it. Italy did more tests than the rest of Europe combined. Source as of 2nd of March (a bit old by now, but hey): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ 2. Italy was the first country in Europe to ban direct flights with China. 3. Really took some hard, unpopular decisions regarding quarantine and containment. Lombardy and Veneto are the main engine of the country. 4. Together with Japan, has one of the oldest, age wise, populations on the planet, the most fragile in this moment (reason for the high mortality rate). 5. Schools and university closed until April. Entire provinces will be in quarantine (no entry/exit unless for urgent reasons) .etc. I hope other countries in Europe won't be in a worse situation in a few weeks time due to the delayed start they had. I think Italy did the best by searching as wide as possible even if this wrongly painted them as the source of the spreading in Europe. But, in the long run, it was for the best.

znpy 7y ago

1. Italy did a lot more testing 2. We only know about china's infection rate what china wants us to know. given that there is no free press there, anyone talking about coronavirus in china should take china-provided information with a grain of salt. 3. as soon as other countries start properly testing, they'll get "hit" too.

superflit 7y ago

Because of Hand-to-Hand contact. Have you ever seen Italians speaking? They speak and use their hands to support the talk, doing explanations and emphasis on hands gestures. As they speak saliva goes in the air and land in the hands and as they touch other surfaces contaminating it.

gbrindisi 7y ago
When you wrote on your profile page "Just a simple guy..." you were not kidding.
- superflit 7y ago
  I am glad you can detect sarcasm. From Trento with love!

eanthy 7y ago

Because italian/spanish love to kiss each other as a salute and hug and all kinds of physical contact as opposed to english for example who wouldn't. Hence virus is easier to spread there.

gbrindisi 7y ago
This is ludicrous. If that was true then why Spain is not (yet) hit as hard? (Am I on reddit?)
- eanthy 7y ago
  it's among the hardest hit ones, there's a reason why more developed countries don't get it as bad