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In Italy: "The national health institute said the average age of those who have died was 81, with the majority suffering from underlying health problems. An es

In Italy: "The national health institute said the average age of those who have died was 81, with the majority suffering from underlying health problems. An estimated 72% of all those who have died were men. According to government data, 4.25% of individuals confirmed to have the coronavirus have died, the highest rate in the world." It is really really important for people to understand the risk group and take that into account in their lives and interactions. For those that are young and health the risk is still low. The panic level of the general populous does not fit the facts at this point.

pishpash 7y ago
I don't think you want to be making guesses when you're dealing with something where there may be no modern medicine to fall back on. You're talking about a 19th century situation here.
jacquesm 7y ago
Those who are young and healthy can infect those who are older.
- tinyhouse 7y ago
  That's true for flu and others. Instead of closing schools people at risk should be very cautious. The question is how much more contegious it is than flu. Unless it's order of magnitude higher, there is no reason to close schools and ban travel.
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    Not quite. Its not going to be ok if this is 'just as contagious', because outcomes are likely much worse. We'll want to be 10x more careful; closing schools is then a reasonable strategy.
    - tinyhouse 7y ago
      Maybe. Saying the outcome is much worse is too early. There are many numbers reported that are likely incorrect. The Corona ship had around 700 people infected and less than one precent died (six people). All were 70+. We don't know if they had any pre-existing conditions but at least two of the people who died were close to 90. That's much lower than some of the numbers coming from China and Italy. But at least we can trust the numbers from the ship since it was a "controlled experiment".
      - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
        It was a terrible controlled experiment. Mostly older people go on cruise ships. We learned about one demographic only from that sample. The disease is harsh, kills too many in alarming ways (lung cascade reaction) and leaves survivors with lifelong debilitating damage. This is not like normal flu, and not a thing to be dismissed nor marginalized.
        tinyhouse 7y ago
        If mostly older people go on cruises as you say then it's even better news. If less that 1% died on that ship then the general population mortality rate should be even lower.
        JoeAltmaier 7y ago
        Wealthy, fit older people without medical conditions?
        tinyhouse 7y ago
        Fit? That's a funny assumption to make. If it was something like a hiking trip then it would've been a fair assumption. Wealthy? Probably. Healthy? To a certain degree makes sense too. I just read somewhere that at least 1000 people on the ship were 70+. I'd take a young person's immune system over any 70+ year old any day. Any way you look at it, the numbers on the ship are much more positive than a lot of what's reported in the media. More importantly, they are also more trustworthy in my opinion. The main reason is that there are fewer unknowns.
  - ineedasername 7y ago
    Schools already close regularly every year if enough kids are getting sick, Happens all the time. With outcomes for COVID-19 potentially an order of magnitude worse school closures make at least as much sense for this too.
DEADBEEFC0FFEE 7y ago
I don't think panic is the correct term, and it's an over used term. People are simply hedging their bets. A bit of isolation won't harm anyone, not isolating might. Organisations are running various scenarios and calculating what the least amount of business disruption will be. It really isn't panic.
- yodsanklai 7y ago
  > A bit of isolation won't harm anyone I strongly disagree. Some containment measures will be extremely costly. A lot of business are suffering now. I'm not saying they shouldn't be taken, but the measures can turn out more costly than the virus itself. I'd hope we leave experts take these decisions based on facts and projections, rather than fear alone.
  - DEADBEEFC0FFEE 7y ago
    Fear alone? A bit dramatic.
triceratops 7y ago
> For those that are young and health the risk is still low This is true, and people love to keep pointing this out to show how "contrarian" they are. But. 1. People with mild symptoms are able to transmit the disease to vulnerable populations. 2. If the spread isn't slowed, the number of patients can outstrip available ICU capacity. Without treatment, the death rate goes up for everyone. This is not an overreaction. #2 reportedly happened in Hubei. Containment makes sense if the goal is to save lives.
yodsanklai 7y ago
The case for closing schools is that kids or younger adults may be transmitters, even though the virus is harmless to them.
mrtksn 7y ago
>For those that are young and health the risk is still low I don't want to be the grandson who killed his grandma, I don't want to be the guy who pulled the trigger on a sufferer of another illness. Are the people who paddle this argument of "you are too young and healthy to die from NCOV-19" are disconnected from their elderly and have no contact at all with people who are suffering some illness? Please explain to me because I do not understand your angle here.
- tinyhouse 7y ago
  Do you know how many old people die every day from respiratory problems similar to Corona symptoms? But until the corona showed up no one cared. Coming to work sick with a flu was a common thing everywhere I worked. Sending sick kids to school etc. People stay at home now because there are too many unknowns. Once it's treated as another flu things will go back to normal.
  - DanBC 7y ago
    You're forgetting that we spend considerable time and effort tackling flu with national programmes of vaccination every year, and multi-national coordinated monitoring programmes -- the Global Influenza Surveillance & Response System. https://www.who.int/influenza/en/ https://www.who.int/influenza/en/ Have a look at some charts comparing death rates for flu and covid-19. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jbloom/CoV_vs_flu_CFR/master/CFR-stats.jpg https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jbloom/CoV_vs_flu_CFR/mast... https://twitter.com/vote4dongshen/status/1236136262039416832/photo/1 https://twitter.com/vote4dongshen/status/1236136262039416832... Covid-19 is not just another flu. Also, the choice is not "deal with flu or coronavirus", it's "deal with flu and coronavirus as well". We already see winter pressure in most health care systems because of flu season, and adding coronavirus on top is going to be pretty devastating.
  - mrtksn 7y ago
    Do the %20 of the residents of care homes die spontaneously in a week or two? https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1236532896963280896 https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1236532896963280896
101404 7y ago
So if it's mostly "old men" then it's okay? Wtf. Where they "white" too?
myrandomcomment 7y ago
I find it strange that I received down votes for posting a quote from the BBC and facts. I think what I shared was important so I am going to say it again. The panic level of the general populous does not fit the facts at this point. The fact that there is no toilet paper, wipes or hand sanitizer on the store shelves in the Bay Area is panic buying. The fact that eBay band their sale is proof of panic. Wash your hands people with lots of soap for 20 seconds. Do not touch your face absentmindedly like we all do. If you have a cold like symptoms do not go out.

pishpash 7y ago

I don't think you want to be making guesses when you're dealing with something where there may be no modern medicine to fall back on. You're talking about a 19th century situation here.

jacquesm 7y ago

Those who are young and healthy can infect those who are older.

tinyhouse 7y ago
That's true for flu and others. Instead of closing schools people at risk should be very cautious. The question is how much more contegious it is than flu. Unless it's order of magnitude higher, there is no reason to close schools and ban travel.
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  Not quite. Its not going to be ok if this is 'just as contagious', because outcomes are likely much worse. We'll want to be 10x more careful; closing schools is then a reasonable strategy.
  - tinyhouse 7y ago
    Maybe. Saying the outcome is much worse is too early. There are many numbers reported that are likely incorrect. The Corona ship had around 700 people infected and less than one precent died (six people). All were 70+. We don't know if they had any pre-existing conditions but at least two of the people who died were close to 90. That's much lower than some of the numbers coming from China and Italy. But at least we can trust the numbers from the ship since it was a "controlled experiment".
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      It was a terrible controlled experiment. Mostly older people go on cruise ships. We learned about one demographic only from that sample. The disease is harsh, kills too many in alarming ways (lung cascade reaction) and leaves survivors with lifelong debilitating damage. This is not like normal flu, and not a thing to be dismissed nor marginalized.
      - tinyhouse 7y ago
        If mostly older people go on cruises as you say then it's even better news. If less that 1% died on that ship then the general population mortality rate should be even lower.
        JoeAltmaier 7y ago
        Wealthy, fit older people without medical conditions?
        tinyhouse 7y ago
        Fit? That's a funny assumption to make. If it was something like a hiking trip then it would've been a fair assumption. Wealthy? Probably. Healthy? To a certain degree makes sense too. I just read somewhere that at least 1000 people on the ship were 70+. I'd take a young person's immune system over any 70+ year old any day. Any way you look at it, the numbers on the ship are much more positive than a lot of what's reported in the media. More importantly, they are also more trustworthy in my opinion. The main reason is that there are fewer unknowns.
- ineedasername 7y ago
  Schools already close regularly every year if enough kids are getting sick, Happens all the time. With outcomes for COVID-19 potentially an order of magnitude worse school closures make at least as much sense for this too.

DEADBEEFC0FFEE 7y ago

I don't think panic is the correct term, and it's an over used term. People are simply hedging their bets. A bit of isolation won't harm anyone, not isolating might. Organisations are running various scenarios and calculating what the least amount of business disruption will be. It really isn't panic.

yodsanklai 7y ago
> A bit of isolation won't harm anyone I strongly disagree. Some containment measures will be extremely costly. A lot of business are suffering now. I'm not saying they shouldn't be taken, but the measures can turn out more costly than the virus itself. I'd hope we leave experts take these decisions based on facts and projections, rather than fear alone.
- DEADBEEFC0FFEE 7y ago
  Fear alone? A bit dramatic.

triceratops 7y ago

> For those that are young and health the risk is still low This is true, and people love to keep pointing this out to show how "contrarian" they are. But. 1. People with mild symptoms are able to transmit the disease to vulnerable populations. 2. If the spread isn't slowed, the number of patients can outstrip available ICU capacity. Without treatment, the death rate goes up for everyone. This is not an overreaction. #2 reportedly happened in Hubei. Containment makes sense if the goal is to save lives.

yodsanklai 7y ago

The case for closing schools is that kids or younger adults may be transmitters, even though the virus is harmless to them.

mrtksn 7y ago

>For those that are young and health the risk is still low I don't want to be the grandson who killed his grandma, I don't want to be the guy who pulled the trigger on a sufferer of another illness. Are the people who paddle this argument of "you are too young and healthy to die from NCOV-19" are disconnected from their elderly and have no contact at all with people who are suffering some illness? Please explain to me because I do not understand your angle here.

tinyhouse 7y ago
Do you know how many old people die every day from respiratory problems similar to Corona symptoms? But until the corona showed up no one cared. Coming to work sick with a flu was a common thing everywhere I worked. Sending sick kids to school etc. People stay at home now because there are too many unknowns. Once it's treated as another flu things will go back to normal.
- DanBC 7y ago
  You're forgetting that we spend considerable time and effort tackling flu with national programmes of vaccination every year, and multi-national coordinated monitoring programmes -- the Global Influenza Surveillance & Response System. https://www.who.int/influenza/en/ https://www.who.int/influenza/en/ Have a look at some charts comparing death rates for flu and covid-19. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jbloom/CoV_vs_flu_CFR/master/CFR-stats.jpg https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jbloom/CoV_vs_flu_CFR/mast... https://twitter.com/vote4dongshen/status/1236136262039416832/photo/1 https://twitter.com/vote4dongshen/status/1236136262039416832... Covid-19 is not just another flu. Also, the choice is not "deal with flu or coronavirus", it's "deal with flu and coronavirus as well". We already see winter pressure in most health care systems because of flu season, and adding coronavirus on top is going to be pretty devastating.
- mrtksn 7y ago
  Do the %20 of the residents of care homes die spontaneously in a week or two? https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1236532896963280896 https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/1236532896963280896

101404 7y ago

So if it's mostly "old men" then it's okay? Wtf. Where they "white" too?

myrandomcomment 7y ago

I find it strange that I received down votes for posting a quote from the BBC and facts. I think what I shared was important so I am going to say it again. The panic level of the general populous does not fit the facts at this point. The fact that there is no toilet paper, wipes or hand sanitizer on the store shelves in the Bay Area is panic buying. The fact that eBay band their sale is proof of panic. Wash your hands people with lots of soap for 20 seconds. Do not touch your face absentmindedly like we all do. If you have a cold like symptoms do not go out.