3 ms·

Is there any reason to believe we wouldn't have a vaccine in the next 12-18 months? Multiple vaccine candidates are already entering clinical trials. [0] If th

Is there any reason to believe we wouldn't have a vaccine in the next 12-18 months? Multiple vaccine candidates are already entering clinical trials. [0] If there's a vaccine and a large sample of cases studies on treatment with antivirals, I'd assume its fatality rate would fall down to regular flu levels or somewhere near that. Therefore the spread wouldn't be treated like a pandemic as it is now. 0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-set-to-begin-this-month https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s...

credit_guy 7y ago
According to [1] the likelihood of approval for a drug entering Phase 1 trials is about 12%. So that's one reason to not be too excited. Another reason is that coronaviruses are one of the causes of the common cold (rhinoviruses another one). People have been looking for a cure for the common cold for hundreds of years. It's been challenging. It's possible that the efforts were not that focused as the common cold is not very deadly. Now that Covid19 appears to be more deadly, maybe the efforts will redouble. But maybe there are some fundamental reasons it's difficult to come up with a cure/vaccine for coronaviruses (like they mutate too quickly). I personally don't take for granted that there will be a vaccine in the next few years. [1] https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/C...
hobofan 7y ago
Even with a vaccine, if it spreads enough and the mutation rate is high enough, new strains of the virus (that the vaccination doesn't protect against) will spread every season.
smileysteve 7y ago
A working vaccine isn't guaranteed. Reminder that we haven't perfected the flu vaccine, it only applies to a few strains each year, and some years it misses more than hits

credit_guy 7y ago

According to [1] the likelihood of approval for a drug entering Phase 1 trials is about 12%. So that's one reason to not be too excited. Another reason is that coronaviruses are one of the causes of the common cold (rhinoviruses another one). People have been looking for a cure for the common cold for hundreds of years. It's been challenging. It's possible that the efforts were not that focused as the common cold is not very deadly. Now that Covid19 appears to be more deadly, maybe the efforts will redouble. But maybe there are some fundamental reasons it's difficult to come up with a cure/vaccine for coronaviruses (like they mutate too quickly). I personally don't take for granted that there will be a vaccine in the next few years. [1] https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/C...

hobofan 7y ago

Even with a vaccine, if it spreads enough and the mutation rate is high enough, new strains of the virus (that the vaccination doesn't protect against) will spread every season.

smileysteve 7y ago

A working vaccine isn't guaranteed. Reminder that we haven't perfected the flu vaccine, it only applies to a few strains each year, and some years it misses more than hits