5 ms·

The problem is determining for how long people will continue to overreact. We're still at the point where a single confirmed case in a country that didn't have

The problem is determining for how long people will continue to overreact. We're still at the point where a single confirmed case in a country that didn't have any before is international news and triggers more panic, as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders. You could easily have a long tail of these that can easily be spun into news about the continuing spread of the virus.

smallgovt 7y ago
If you really believe what you're saying, don't worry about timing the bottom. You're arguing that the current state of the markets is already a huge overreaction. Just buy into an index tracking one of the hard-hit sectors, and hold through the panic. If this is an overreaction, there's no way the panic's going to last many years, so you won't risk insolvency.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  Well said, thanks for the perspective.
_jal 7y ago
> as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders The virus may not care, but it doesn't fly planes, control customs, coordinate response or a bunch of other things. Borders and other political constructs have large effects on contagion.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  I haven't looked recently, but when the first wave of travel restrictions was being implemented, WHO, CDC and other public health authorities were saying that travel restrictions were unnecessary and ineffective.
  - 411111111111111 7y ago
    Which remains true. The only thing that would work is forced quarantine for all travelers for the hole incubation time so you could be absolutely certain they're not carrying that virus before letting them back into society. That wasn't going to happen, and anything else doesn't stop the virus from entering in some way. And even this could potentially be unsafe as the virus could potentially mutate. Honestly, anything but herd immunity with vaccine isn't going to cut it with an easily spread virus such as this. (Still not a guarantee, just highly likely to work)

smallgovt 7y ago

If you really believe what you're saying, don't worry about timing the bottom. You're arguing that the current state of the markets is already a huge overreaction. Just buy into an index tracking one of the hard-hit sectors, and hold through the panic. If this is an overreaction, there's no way the panic's going to last many years, so you won't risk insolvency.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
Well said, thanks for the perspective.

_jal 7y ago

> as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders The virus may not care, but it doesn't fly planes, control customs, coordinate response or a bunch of other things. Borders and other political constructs have large effects on contagion.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
I haven't looked recently, but when the first wave of travel restrictions was being implemented, WHO, CDC and other public health authorities were saying that travel restrictions were unnecessary and ineffective.
- 411111111111111 7y ago
  Which remains true. The only thing that would work is forced quarantine for all travelers for the hole incubation time so you could be absolutely certain they're not carrying that virus before letting them back into society. That wasn't going to happen, and anything else doesn't stop the virus from entering in some way. And even this could potentially be unsafe as the virus could potentially mutate. Honestly, anything but herd immunity with vaccine isn't going to cut it with an easily spread virus such as this. (Still not a guarantee, just highly likely to work)