3 ms·

Stanford is smart. Closing up before cases appear is the very definition of a precaution. Source: I work at UW, was very perturbed that classes/operations hadn

by ISL 7y ago

Stanford is smart. Closing up before cases appear is the very definition of a precaution. Source: I work at UW, was very perturbed that classes/operations hadn't been cancelled when it was quite clear that a case would eventually appear.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
Shall we close everything up then, just in case? Maybe then we should keep everything closed, as a precaution against other infectious diseases, including as-yet-unknown future ones?
- ISL 7y ago
  When UW's own researchers had shown that there were likely to be at least a few hundred cases in the Seattle area and only tens had been found, the probability that the outbreak would end without reaching campus was already slim.
- throwaway34241 7y ago
  Even if the starting number is low, as long as the growth rate is consistently exponential that won't last very long. And even if the majority of cases are mild, the hospitalization rate seems to be high enough to overwhelm our capacity (if growth is unchecked) at which point people don't get proper treatment and the statistics get worse. I think the real measure of if this is under control is the growth rate and not the absolute numbers, since exponential growth will generate big numbers very quickly. If the growth is not under control, slowing it down at the beginning makes a lot of sense compared to later (and buys time for vaccine development). I'm not an expert so I hope I haven't gotten any of this wrong, but the experts / authorities taking it seriously seems pretty justified.
- gdubs 7y ago
  No need to invent hypotheticals when we’re dealing with an actual, unfolding crisis. The cost of closing schools, canceling events, etc, for several weeks would have been very disruptive and expensive. But it stood a chance of containing this. Now we’re experiencing the beginning of the economic impact plus we’re allowing this to become a pandemic — and probably seasonal. It’s hard to see how the cost won’t be astronomically higher in choosing to react rather than take proactive steps. And we chose this path with Italy and China already showing us the seriousness of this virus.
baddox 7y ago
It’s not so simple to say “closing before a case is smart.” It’s always before a case.
myrandomcomment 7y ago
They have 2 confirmed cases at this point so..
- CaliforniaKarl 7y ago
  I don’t believe that’s the case, at least at this current moment: There is one confirmed case in the Faculty, and two potential student cases. Source: https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/03/06/stanford-cancels-in-person-classes-two-students-possibly-exposed-to-coronavirus-in-self-isolation https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/03/06/stanford-cancels-...
geomark 7y ago
Data analysis of the Spanish flu seems to indicate that it is indeed smart to close before cases appear. A pretty good analysis here: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699 https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
- spanxx 7y ago
  Calling it Spanish Flu (instead of 1918 pandemic) were it had no relationship with Spain..

by ISL 7y ago

_-___________-_ 7y ago

Shall we close everything up then, just in case? Maybe then we should keep everything closed, as a precaution against other infectious diseases, including as-yet-unknown future ones?

ISL 7y ago
When UW's own researchers had shown that there were likely to be at least a few hundred cases in the Seattle area and only tens had been found, the probability that the outbreak would end without reaching campus was already slim.
throwaway34241 7y ago
Even if the starting number is low, as long as the growth rate is consistently exponential that won't last very long. And even if the majority of cases are mild, the hospitalization rate seems to be high enough to overwhelm our capacity (if growth is unchecked) at which point people don't get proper treatment and the statistics get worse. I think the real measure of if this is under control is the growth rate and not the absolute numbers, since exponential growth will generate big numbers very quickly. If the growth is not under control, slowing it down at the beginning makes a lot of sense compared to later (and buys time for vaccine development). I'm not an expert so I hope I haven't gotten any of this wrong, but the experts / authorities taking it seriously seems pretty justified.
gdubs 7y ago
No need to invent hypotheticals when we’re dealing with an actual, unfolding crisis. The cost of closing schools, canceling events, etc, for several weeks would have been very disruptive and expensive. But it stood a chance of containing this. Now we’re experiencing the beginning of the economic impact plus we’re allowing this to become a pandemic — and probably seasonal. It’s hard to see how the cost won’t be astronomically higher in choosing to react rather than take proactive steps. And we chose this path with Italy and China already showing us the seriousness of this virus.

baddox 7y ago

It’s not so simple to say “closing before a case is smart.” It’s always before a case.

myrandomcomment 7y ago

They have 2 confirmed cases at this point so..

CaliforniaKarl 7y ago
I don’t believe that’s the case, at least at this current moment: There is one confirmed case in the Faculty, and two potential student cases. Source: https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/03/06/stanford-cancels-in-person-classes-two-students-possibly-exposed-to-coronavirus-in-self-isolation https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/03/06/stanford-cancels-...

geomark 7y ago

Data analysis of the Spanish flu seems to indicate that it is indeed smart to close before cases appear. A pretty good analysis here: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699 https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699

spanxx 7y ago
Calling it Spanish Flu (instead of 1918 pandemic) were it had no relationship with Spain..