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That entirely depends on whether society decides to have the current panic wave every year, or deals with it in a more reasonable manner. Hopefully after people
by _-___________-_ 7y ago
That entirely depends on whether society decides to have the current panic wave every year, or deals with it in a more reasonable manner. Hopefully after people see how much they overreacted this time, they won't be inclined to next season.
- ehsankia 7y agoOnce a vaccine is created, couldn't the people the most at danger get vaccinated and everyone else too, created herd immunity?
- Ozzie_osman 7y agoI'd actually be curious. Is it the type of thing where a vaccine ends it? Or will it be like the flu where it's always mutating and so the vaccine helps but it's still always out there in some form.
- sterlind 7y agoNot an expert, but creating a perennial vaccine depends on the mutation rate and which highly-conserved regions can be targeted. One of the potential vaccines enrolling trial patients is made of mRNA that codes for the spike protein needed for entry to cells. [0] If that spike protein turns out to be highly-conserved, then the vaccine will have sticking power. If it's not, but there turn out to be evolutionary trade-offs to adapting around it, it could push the virus to become less aggressive. 0. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461
- jfoster 7y agoIsn't it only if an effective vaccine is created? For instance, what if it becomes like the flu? Vaccine exists, but flu still does the rounds. Additionally, with some reinfections happening, what does that mean? Why didn't the people who had covid-19 a first time have immunity?
- mantap 7y agoIt is expected to be more stable than influenza. So regional eradication is conceivable in the long term and it's likely to eventually become one of those diseases that is limited to poorer/harder to reach parts of the world. But that is certainly years away. For now we all have zero immunity. The relapses are a bit of a mystery but it's not uncommon with viruses e.g. various herpes viruses.
- ehsankia 7y agoThe problem with flu isn't tha the vaccine itself isn't effective, it actually protects you from the strains it's designed to just fine, it's just that the influenza virus is unstable and mutates, leading to new versions that you no longer are protected against. So yes, it depends on how stable COVID-19 is as mentioned below.
- jfoster 7y agoAware of this. It does depend on that, and so will the effectiveness of any vaccine.
- 411111111111111 7y agoIt remains to be seen if it's an overreaction. There is not enough data to say it isn't.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoYou're right. I would stake a large amount of money on it, though, if there were a good way to.
- khuey 7y agoGiven the reaction of equity markets that seems like one option for you to "put your money where your mouth is" so to speak.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoThe problem is determining for how long people will continue to overreact. We're still at the point where a single confirmed case in a country that didn't have any before is international news and triggers more panic, as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders. You could easily have a long tail of these that can easily be spun into news about the continuing spread of the virus.
- smallgovt 7y agoIf you really believe what you're saying, don't worry about timing the bottom. You're arguing that the current state of the markets is already a huge overreaction. Just buy into an index tracking one of the hard-hit sectors, and hold through the panic. If this is an overreaction, there's no way the panic's going to last many years, so you won't risk insolvency.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoWell said, thanks for the perspective.