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With the CDC director saying that this thing is going to be a regular seasonal visitor[1], it makes me wonder what long-term impact this is going to have on soc

With the CDC director saying that this thing is going to be a regular seasonal visitor[1], it makes me wonder what long-term impact this is going to have on society. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert...

ReptileMan 7y ago
Not that high. After all it kills best old people with comorbidities. So it competes with the flu and heart attacks. While a lot of people will die from corona complications I don't expect total mortality to increase that much. You can die only once ..
_-___________-_ 7y ago
That entirely depends on whether society decides to have the current panic wave every year, or deals with it in a more reasonable manner. Hopefully after people see how much they overreacted this time, they won't be inclined to next season.
- ehsankia 7y ago
  Once a vaccine is created, couldn't the people the most at danger get vaccinated and everyone else too, created herd immunity?
  - Ozzie_osman 7y ago
    I'd actually be curious. Is it the type of thing where a vaccine ends it? Or will it be like the flu where it's always mutating and so the vaccine helps but it's still always out there in some form.
    - sterlind 7y ago
      Not an expert, but creating a perennial vaccine depends on the mutation rate and which highly-conserved regions can be targeted. One of the potential vaccines enrolling trial patients is made of mRNA that codes for the spike protein needed for entry to cells. [0] If that spike protein turns out to be highly-conserved, then the vaccine will have sticking power. If it's not, but there turn out to be evolutionary trade-offs to adapting around it, it could push the virus to become less aggressive. 0. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461
  - jfoster 7y ago
    Isn't it only if an effective vaccine is created? For instance, what if it becomes like the flu? Vaccine exists, but flu still does the rounds. Additionally, with some reinfections happening, what does that mean? Why didn't the people who had covid-19 a first time have immunity?
    - mantap 7y ago
      It is expected to be more stable than influenza. So regional eradication is conceivable in the long term and it's likely to eventually become one of those diseases that is limited to poorer/harder to reach parts of the world. But that is certainly years away. For now we all have zero immunity. The relapses are a bit of a mystery but it's not uncommon with viruses e.g. various herpes viruses.
    - ehsankia 7y ago
      The problem with flu isn't tha the vaccine itself isn't effective, it actually protects you from the strains it's designed to just fine, it's just that the influenza virus is unstable and mutates, leading to new versions that you no longer are protected against. So yes, it depends on how stable COVID-19 is as mentioned below.
      - jfoster 7y ago
        Aware of this. It does depend on that, and so will the effectiveness of any vaccine.
- 411111111111111 7y ago
  It remains to be seen if it's an overreaction. There is not enough data to say it isn't.
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    You're right. I would stake a large amount of money on it, though, if there were a good way to.
    - khuey 7y ago
      Given the reaction of equity markets that seems like one option for you to "put your money where your mouth is" so to speak.
      - _-___________-_ 7y ago
        The problem is determining for how long people will continue to overreact. We're still at the point where a single confirmed case in a country that didn't have any before is international news and triggers more panic, as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders. You could easily have a long tail of these that can easily be spun into news about the continuing spread of the virus.
        smallgovt 7y ago
        If you really believe what you're saying, don't worry about timing the bottom. You're arguing that the current state of the markets is already a huge overreaction. Just buy into an index tracking one of the hard-hit sectors, and hold through the panic. If this is an overreaction, there's no way the panic's going to last many years, so you won't risk insolvency.
        _-___________-_ 7y ago
        Well said, thanks for the perspective.
jfoster 7y ago
I don't think regular seasonal visitor has been called yet. In that article the CDC director is simply stating the one-off amount of time he expects the virus to be around for, not that it will recur every season.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- skullt 7y ago
  The article doesn't have the full quote from the video. After mentioning community-based transmission, he goes on to say that "You can start to think of it like seasonal flu," which does suggest recurrence.
  - jfoster 7y ago
    You're right, apologies. Incredible that the article left that quote out.
capkutay 7y ago
Is there any reason to believe we wouldn't have a vaccine in the next 12-18 months? Multiple vaccine candidates are already entering clinical trials. [0] If there's a vaccine and a large sample of cases studies on treatment with antivirals, I'd assume its fatality rate would fall down to regular flu levels or somewhere near that. Therefore the spread wouldn't be treated like a pandemic as it is now. 0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-set-to-begin-this-month https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s...
- credit_guy 7y ago
  According to [1] the likelihood of approval for a drug entering Phase 1 trials is about 12%. So that's one reason to not be too excited. Another reason is that coronaviruses are one of the causes of the common cold (rhinoviruses another one). People have been looking for a cure for the common cold for hundreds of years. It's been challenging. It's possible that the efforts were not that focused as the common cold is not very deadly. Now that Covid19 appears to be more deadly, maybe the efforts will redouble. But maybe there are some fundamental reasons it's difficult to come up with a cure/vaccine for coronaviruses (like they mutate too quickly). I personally don't take for granted that there will be a vaccine in the next few years. [1] https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/C...
- hobofan 7y ago
  Even with a vaccine, if it spreads enough and the mutation rate is high enough, new strains of the virus (that the vaccination doesn't protect against) will spread every season.
- smileysteve 7y ago
  A working vaccine isn't guaranteed. Reminder that we haven't perfected the flu vaccine, it only applies to a few strains each year, and some years it misses more than hits
_ph_ 7y ago
It will probably stay around for a long time, now that it spread through the whole world. But, and that is why currently every step taken to slow down its spread is so important, it will be less of a problem. Beyond a possible vaccine and a cure, there will be more and more people with immunity or partial immunity against it, as with every wave, there are more people around who have successfully fought the virus. With each seasons iteration, the society is less vulnerable against the virus. Especially, if we remember some good practices against viral infections, which would be of benefit against all common infections, ranging from the cold to the flu, which kills far to many people every year. Many of those deaths could be prevented.

ReptileMan 7y ago

Not that high. After all it kills best old people with comorbidities. So it competes with the flu and heart attacks. While a lot of people will die from corona complications I don't expect total mortality to increase that much. You can die only once ..

_-___________-_ 7y ago

That entirely depends on whether society decides to have the current panic wave every year, or deals with it in a more reasonable manner. Hopefully after people see how much they overreacted this time, they won't be inclined to next season.

ehsankia 7y ago
Once a vaccine is created, couldn't the people the most at danger get vaccinated and everyone else too, created herd immunity?
- Ozzie_osman 7y ago
  I'd actually be curious. Is it the type of thing where a vaccine ends it? Or will it be like the flu where it's always mutating and so the vaccine helps but it's still always out there in some form.
  - sterlind 7y ago
    Not an expert, but creating a perennial vaccine depends on the mutation rate and which highly-conserved regions can be targeted. One of the potential vaccines enrolling trial patients is made of mRNA that codes for the spike protein needed for entry to cells. [0] If that spike protein turns out to be highly-conserved, then the vaccine will have sticking power. If it's not, but there turn out to be evolutionary trade-offs to adapting around it, it could push the virus to become less aggressive. 0. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461
- jfoster 7y ago
  Isn't it only if an effective vaccine is created? For instance, what if it becomes like the flu? Vaccine exists, but flu still does the rounds. Additionally, with some reinfections happening, what does that mean? Why didn't the people who had covid-19 a first time have immunity?
  - mantap 7y ago
    It is expected to be more stable than influenza. So regional eradication is conceivable in the long term and it's likely to eventually become one of those diseases that is limited to poorer/harder to reach parts of the world. But that is certainly years away. For now we all have zero immunity. The relapses are a bit of a mystery but it's not uncommon with viruses e.g. various herpes viruses.
  - ehsankia 7y ago
    The problem with flu isn't tha the vaccine itself isn't effective, it actually protects you from the strains it's designed to just fine, it's just that the influenza virus is unstable and mutates, leading to new versions that you no longer are protected against. So yes, it depends on how stable COVID-19 is as mentioned below.
    - jfoster 7y ago
      Aware of this. It does depend on that, and so will the effectiveness of any vaccine.
411111111111111 7y ago
It remains to be seen if it's an overreaction. There is not enough data to say it isn't.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  You're right. I would stake a large amount of money on it, though, if there were a good way to.
  - khuey 7y ago
    Given the reaction of equity markets that seems like one option for you to "put your money where your mouth is" so to speak.
    - _-___________-_ 7y ago
      The problem is determining for how long people will continue to overreact. We're still at the point where a single confirmed case in a country that didn't have any before is international news and triggers more panic, as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders. You could easily have a long tail of these that can easily be spun into news about the continuing spread of the virus.
      - smallgovt 7y ago
        If you really believe what you're saying, don't worry about timing the bottom. You're arguing that the current state of the markets is already a huge overreaction. Just buy into an index tracking one of the hard-hit sectors, and hold through the panic. If this is an overreaction, there's no way the panic's going to last many years, so you won't risk insolvency.
        _-___________-_ 7y ago
        Well said, thanks for the perspective.

jfoster 7y ago

I don't think regular seasonal visitor has been called yet. In that article the CDC director is simply stating the one-off amount of time he expects the virus to be around for, not that it will recur every season.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
skullt 7y ago
The article doesn't have the full quote from the video. After mentioning community-based transmission, he goes on to say that "You can start to think of it like seasonal flu," which does suggest recurrence.
- jfoster 7y ago
  You're right, apologies. Incredible that the article left that quote out.

capkutay 7y ago

Is there any reason to believe we wouldn't have a vaccine in the next 12-18 months? Multiple vaccine candidates are already entering clinical trials. [0] If there's a vaccine and a large sample of cases studies on treatment with antivirals, I'd assume its fatality rate would fall down to regular flu levels or somewhere near that. Therefore the spread wouldn't be treated like a pandemic as it is now. 0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-set-to-begin-this-month https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s...

credit_guy 7y ago
According to [1] the likelihood of approval for a drug entering Phase 1 trials is about 12%. So that's one reason to not be too excited. Another reason is that coronaviruses are one of the causes of the common cold (rhinoviruses another one). People have been looking for a cure for the common cold for hundreds of years. It's been challenging. It's possible that the efforts were not that focused as the common cold is not very deadly. Now that Covid19 appears to be more deadly, maybe the efforts will redouble. But maybe there are some fundamental reasons it's difficult to come up with a cure/vaccine for coronaviruses (like they mutate too quickly). I personally don't take for granted that there will be a vaccine in the next few years. [1] https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/C...
hobofan 7y ago
Even with a vaccine, if it spreads enough and the mutation rate is high enough, new strains of the virus (that the vaccination doesn't protect against) will spread every season.
smileysteve 7y ago
A working vaccine isn't guaranteed. Reminder that we haven't perfected the flu vaccine, it only applies to a few strains each year, and some years it misses more than hits

_ph_ 7y ago

It will probably stay around for a long time, now that it spread through the whole world. But, and that is why currently every step taken to slow down its spread is so important, it will be less of a problem. Beyond a possible vaccine and a cure, there will be more and more people with immunity or partial immunity against it, as with every wave, there are more people around who have successfully fought the virus. With each seasons iteration, the society is less vulnerable against the virus. Especially, if we remember some good practices against viral infections, which would be of benefit against all common infections, ranging from the cold to the flu, which kills far to many people every year. Many of those deaths could be prevented.