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I look forward to HN's resident statistics gurus to explain how the traditional flu and drunk driving kill more people per year than the paltry 14 deaths in the

by meritt 7y ago

I look forward to HN's resident statistics gurus to explain how the traditional flu and drunk driving kill more people per year than the paltry 14 deaths in the US and therefore everyone is overreacting. Edit: Apparently my sarcasm wasn't thick enough so let me make my point crystal: COVID-19 is a real, genuine threat that's just getting started, but HN is filled with armchair fuckwits [1][2] who dismiss it because they lack simple math skills. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22507532 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22507532 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22508819 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22508819

ryeights 7y ago
Well, seems you’ve done it already!
- spicyramen 7y ago
  Agree, do we know those 14 deaths age and medical history?
- vikramkr 7y ago
  This while "not that many people have died stop overreacting" stuff makes no sense to me. The whole point is to stop it before more people die. We have testing shortages and world leaders such as in China and Iran buried need about the disease, which has led to thousands of deaths. If we wait for 1-3% of the world population to die before deciding it meets some statistical threshold to start reacting - then that just makes no sense. We're trying to stop people from dying - we can't bring people back after they're gone.
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    > We're trying to stop people from dying - we can't bring people back after they're gone. All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway. (Edited to clarify: we all do, at least currently.) The vast majority of them have been people that were going to die soon, if not of coronavirus then of something else. Is the mass panic really sensible in the face of this?
    - fishtacos 7y ago
      "All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway." Life is a terminal condition, Jack Handey.
      - _-___________-_ 7y ago
        Exactly, although I suspect the sentence may be being read to mean something else by the downvoters...
        fishtacos 7y ago
        I suspect my response may be being read to mean something else by you, as well. Anyway, this isn't Reddit and I'll refrain from further responses so as to be respectful to the netiquette of this site.
        pbourke 7y ago
        > to be respectful to the netiquette of this site. Which is to deeply inhale one’s own farts and declare them delightful.
        dang 7y ago
        I try not to lose sleep over aspects of HN that are true of humans in general. He had reason to believe the stercoraceous flavour, condemned by prejudice as a stink, was, in fact, most agreeable to the organs of smelling; for, that every person who pretended to nauseate the smell of another’s excretions, snuffed up his own with particular complacency; for the truth of which he appealed to all the ladies and gentlemen then present. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2160/2160-h/2160-h.htm https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2160/2160-h/2160-h.htm
    - craftinator 7y ago
      > All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway. Yes, all the doctors in China in their 20s, 30s, and 40s who died were just gonna die anyways, so who cares? For that matter, everyone's going to die, so it really doesn't matter, right? I'm hoping my sarcasm is apparent in my tone here, but if not; your argument is both counter-factual and full of fallacy. > The vast majority of them have been people that were going to die soon, if not of coronavirus then of something else. Again, this is BS. > Is the mass panic really sensible in the face of this? Panic isn't, but taking quick, decisive, and committed action is the only way that a crisis can be averted. If you don't understand this, I imagine you haven't had to deal with life or death decisions before. This all may blow over, but the facts DO NOT support that outlook. They all point to a bend in the hockey stick, and if we don't have a strong plan of action to mitigate this, people you know, and people I know, will die.
vikramkr 7y ago
There are well over 3000 deaths worldwide. The point is to stop the death toll from getting worse. For example, the death toll from smoking is very low in a population of people that don't smoke. The number of dead people killed by coronavirus is also low in the US because most people don't have it yet. The whole point is to keep it that way. And given the enormous amount of investment we as a society put into mitigating deaths from car accidents and the flu (safety features and testing, vaccinations, etc), cancelling classes to stop the spread of a disease more deadly than the flu without a vaccine is not an overreaction. We have a major testing kit shortage right now. China and Iran have been covering up how bad the case was and suppressed information about it's spread early on. We haven't been reacting enough. What we need right now is a clear eyed understanding of the risks this causes for the health of the populace (just because it's only so far proving a particularly dangerous concern in the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions doesn't mean those deaths count any less and that reactions should be any less strong). We're already seeing the economic impacts as work and exports grind to a halt as people are staying in quarantine if they are sick to avoid putting the vulnerable in danger. And these testing shortages mean we don't know the full extent of the disease spread. So no, we aren't overreacting. If the response is successful, then we'll max out at a couple dozen dead. That doesn't mean the disease wasn't a big deal, that means that the reaction worked to contain it.
tanilama 7y ago
Nobody is overreacting drinking or driving causes death through the year, while covid19 is like a DDOS to the health system. Expect to be neglected if you get caught by a huge outbreak, thus the fear. Not to mention if the outbreak escalated it will become Spanish-flu V2 then we are talking about 10 of millions people dying, and hundreds of thousands dying in US alone. COVID19 is probably the most disastrous disease in our lives, assuming most of us haven’t been through Spanish flu. It almost felt like this virus is tailored to live with us. I will take no chance and do the protections from my part as careful as possible
- thrav 7y ago
  If there’s any truth in the fringes, this virus might in fact have been tailored.
_-___________-_ 7y ago
These people are not "fuckwits", they just have a more balanced viewpoint than you.
- meritt 7y ago
  I disagree. When someone looks at an epidemic that just made landfall a month ago and compares those numbers on an absolute basis to a virus (seasonal flu) that's completely embedded in the fabric of the entire US, and concludes that since A<B, it's not a threat, they are indeed a complete fuckwit.
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    I read the two comments you linked and it does not appear that either of them are doing what you say they are.
  - elorenz 7y ago
    To make your argument convincing, you should explain the difference between the coronavirus and the seasonal flu, and why is it invalid to compare the mortality rates of the two.
stopping 7y ago
How would you characterize the current public response to COVID-19? What aspects do you think indicate under-preparation? What aspects do you think are hysterical or overly cautious? To what extent do you believe it is prudent and reasonable to shut down businesses, schools, and other public places to prevent the spread of the disease? How do you weigh the cost of constricting economic and social activity compared to the cost of the disease itself? Anybody who is willing to pass (IMHO) bad-faith judgments on well-intentioned users should be also willing to answer these sorts of questions.

by meritt 7y ago

ryeights 7y ago

Well, seems you’ve done it already!

spicyramen 7y ago
Agree, do we know those 14 deaths age and medical history?
vikramkr 7y ago
This while "not that many people have died stop overreacting" stuff makes no sense to me. The whole point is to stop it before more people die. We have testing shortages and world leaders such as in China and Iran buried need about the disease, which has led to thousands of deaths. If we wait for 1-3% of the world population to die before deciding it meets some statistical threshold to start reacting - then that just makes no sense. We're trying to stop people from dying - we can't bring people back after they're gone.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  > We're trying to stop people from dying - we can't bring people back after they're gone. All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway. (Edited to clarify: we all do, at least currently.) The vast majority of them have been people that were going to die soon, if not of coronavirus then of something else. Is the mass panic really sensible in the face of this?
  - fishtacos 7y ago
    "All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway." Life is a terminal condition, Jack Handey.
    - _-___________-_ 7y ago
      Exactly, although I suspect the sentence may be being read to mean something else by the downvoters...
      - fishtacos 7y ago
        I suspect my response may be being read to mean something else by you, as well. Anyway, this isn't Reddit and I'll refrain from further responses so as to be respectful to the netiquette of this site.
        pbourke 7y ago
        > to be respectful to the netiquette of this site. Which is to deeply inhale one’s own farts and declare them delightful.
        dang 7y ago
        I try not to lose sleep over aspects of HN that are true of humans in general. He had reason to believe the stercoraceous flavour, condemned by prejudice as a stink, was, in fact, most agreeable to the organs of smelling; for, that every person who pretended to nauseate the smell of another’s excretions, snuffed up his own with particular complacency; for the truth of which he appealed to all the ladies and gentlemen then present. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2160/2160-h/2160-h.htm https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2160/2160-h/2160-h.htm
  - craftinator 7y ago
    > All of the coronavirus deaths have been people that were going to die anyway. Yes, all the doctors in China in their 20s, 30s, and 40s who died were just gonna die anyways, so who cares? For that matter, everyone's going to die, so it really doesn't matter, right? I'm hoping my sarcasm is apparent in my tone here, but if not; your argument is both counter-factual and full of fallacy. > The vast majority of them have been people that were going to die soon, if not of coronavirus then of something else. Again, this is BS. > Is the mass panic really sensible in the face of this? Panic isn't, but taking quick, decisive, and committed action is the only way that a crisis can be averted. If you don't understand this, I imagine you haven't had to deal with life or death decisions before. This all may blow over, but the facts DO NOT support that outlook. They all point to a bend in the hockey stick, and if we don't have a strong plan of action to mitigate this, people you know, and people I know, will die.

vikramkr 7y ago

There are well over 3000 deaths worldwide. The point is to stop the death toll from getting worse. For example, the death toll from smoking is very low in a population of people that don't smoke. The number of dead people killed by coronavirus is also low in the US because most people don't have it yet. The whole point is to keep it that way. And given the enormous amount of investment we as a society put into mitigating deaths from car accidents and the flu (safety features and testing, vaccinations, etc), cancelling classes to stop the spread of a disease more deadly than the flu without a vaccine is not an overreaction. We have a major testing kit shortage right now. China and Iran have been covering up how bad the case was and suppressed information about it's spread early on. We haven't been reacting enough. What we need right now is a clear eyed understanding of the risks this causes for the health of the populace (just because it's only so far proving a particularly dangerous concern in the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions doesn't mean those deaths count any less and that reactions should be any less strong). We're already seeing the economic impacts as work and exports grind to a halt as people are staying in quarantine if they are sick to avoid putting the vulnerable in danger. And these testing shortages mean we don't know the full extent of the disease spread. So no, we aren't overreacting. If the response is successful, then we'll max out at a couple dozen dead. That doesn't mean the disease wasn't a big deal, that means that the reaction worked to contain it.

tanilama 7y ago

Nobody is overreacting drinking or driving causes death through the year, while covid19 is like a DDOS to the health system. Expect to be neglected if you get caught by a huge outbreak, thus the fear. Not to mention if the outbreak escalated it will become Spanish-flu V2 then we are talking about 10 of millions people dying, and hundreds of thousands dying in US alone. COVID19 is probably the most disastrous disease in our lives, assuming most of us haven’t been through Spanish flu. It almost felt like this virus is tailored to live with us. I will take no chance and do the protections from my part as careful as possible

thrav 7y ago
If there’s any truth in the fringes, this virus might in fact have been tailored.

_-___________-_ 7y ago

These people are not "fuckwits", they just have a more balanced viewpoint than you.

meritt 7y ago
I disagree. When someone looks at an epidemic that just made landfall a month ago and compares those numbers on an absolute basis to a virus (seasonal flu) that's completely embedded in the fabric of the entire US, and concludes that since A<B, it's not a threat, they are indeed a complete fuckwit.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  I read the two comments you linked and it does not appear that either of them are doing what you say they are.
- elorenz 7y ago
  To make your argument convincing, you should explain the difference between the coronavirus and the seasonal flu, and why is it invalid to compare the mortality rates of the two.

stopping 7y ago

How would you characterize the current public response to COVID-19? What aspects do you think indicate under-preparation? What aspects do you think are hysterical or overly cautious? To what extent do you believe it is prudent and reasonable to shut down businesses, schools, and other public places to prevent the spread of the disease? How do you weigh the cost of constricting economic and social activity compared to the cost of the disease itself? Anybody who is willing to pass (IMHO) bad-faith judgments on well-intentioned users should be also willing to answer these sorts of questions.