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My point was people's reaction is probably the main issue. And I tried to illustrate how illogical it is based on the risks people take when it comes to things

My point was people's reaction is probably the main issue. And I tried to illustrate how illogical it is based on the risks people take when it comes to things that are currently proven to be deadly, not maybe deadly. The other day someone complained to me about the dangers of Corona Virus WHILE smoking a cigarette! (blew my mind, though I didn't say anything) The overreaction is perfectly illustrated by Marc Lipsitch who estimated 70% of the world population will have Corona Virus before the years end. At 7 billion, and with 3% death rate, it would mean 147,000,000 million dead by the year's end. I think we can agree that this is a VERY extraordinary assertion. I seem to also remember him making similar claims about SARS and MERS in years past. But going back to his extraordinary claims, even if this virus was 10x as deadly as ALL the flu strains put together we'd still be talking about 3 to 6 million dead world wide (high no doubt, but still less than tobacco deaths which stand at 7 million/year) By calculating 10x all flus we are actually calculating 30-100x worse than any single virus strain we know, since the 'flu' is an umbrella for many different viral strains. So basically, IF this virus was 100x worse than any previous virus, we'd see Lipsitch is exaggerating by a factor of 50x. And if this new virus is 'only' as bad as regular 'colds', he'd be exaggerating by 5,000x. There seems to be a feedback loop: the more people get scared, the more the media sells fear. The more the media sells fear, the more scared they become. Again, I can't stress this enough, Corona Virus is real, it needs to be addressed, our leaders need to make it a priority. People will die and we should avoid it. But also true is people need to stop fretting over things they can't control and the media needs to stop whipping them into a frenzy with fear mongering tactics. They should be using this to remind people that they should ALWAYS, every year, get their flu shot. That they should ALWAYS wash their hands, not just when they fear Corona Virus. Overreactions can be just as bad as under reactions and humans have a long history of mass hysteria that only make things worse.

claudeganon 7y ago
Well then, anecdotes aside, your point is just patently incorrect. Per the leaked slide in the Business Insider article, experts are privately warning hospitals of a disease surge that will almost certainly overwhelm them, with at least 500,000 deaths in the US. That’s not a crisis manufactured by the media nor an overreaction by the public. It’s the reality of what’s being prepared for.
- NicolasGorden 7y ago
  You can use that single slide to dictate your response to the issue. That's fine and you have every right to. I'll use the advice by the WHO which literally says not to panic since it hurts their response efforts: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-... Instead of panicking, I'll do what they recommend, which is what I do anyway since it works against all viruses and is really quite reasonable: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-... Also, the other article you posted from bedford.io seems to confirm this won't be a big deal. But even if it is, what do you suggest I do about it to improve the situation? I mean that question seriously. Further more, I'm not saying that one slide doesn't exist. But maybe it isn't the end all, be all of authority? Maybe the other link you yourself posted also has some validity?
  - claudeganon 7y ago
    I think we need to do what Bedford himself said is necessary and lobby for it in our circles, even if authorities themselves refuse to act: > The author of the analysis, a computational biologist named Trevor Bedford, said there are likely already at least 500 to 600 cases of Covid-19 in the greater Seattle area. He urged health authorities and the public to immediately begin adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions — imposing “social distancing” measures, telling the sick to isolate themselves, and limiting attendance at large gatherings. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/washington-state-risks-seeing-explosion-in-coronavirus-without-dramatic-action-new-analysis-says/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/washington-state-risks-s... So, practice social distancing as much as possible and encourage your friends and family to do the same (especially if you know them to be in one of the high risk groups or frequently). Similarly, advise against mass gatherings. There was just a 100,000+ person comic convention that planned to just barrel through in Seattle, but was forced to cancel because artists and attendees pushed back against it. But I’ll add that there’s mostly also agreement from the two sources. Per the above article: > Bedford said Seattle faces a stark choice — take aggressive actions to slow down the spread of the new coronavirus now or face the type of outbreak that engulfed Wuhan’s health facilities and led to a lockdown of the city that remains in place six weeks later.

claudeganon 7y ago

Well then, anecdotes aside, your point is just patently incorrect. Per the leaked slide in the Business Insider article, experts are privately warning hospitals of a disease surge that will almost certainly overwhelm them, with at least 500,000 deaths in the US. That’s not a crisis manufactured by the media nor an overreaction by the public. It’s the reality of what’s being prepared for.

NicolasGorden 7y ago
You can use that single slide to dictate your response to the issue. That's fine and you have every right to. I'll use the advice by the WHO which literally says not to panic since it hurts their response efforts: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-... Instead of panicking, I'll do what they recommend, which is what I do anyway since it works against all viruses and is really quite reasonable: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-... Also, the other article you posted from bedford.io seems to confirm this won't be a big deal. But even if it is, what do you suggest I do about it to improve the situation? I mean that question seriously. Further more, I'm not saying that one slide doesn't exist. But maybe it isn't the end all, be all of authority? Maybe the other link you yourself posted also has some validity?
- claudeganon 7y ago
  I think we need to do what Bedford himself said is necessary and lobby for it in our circles, even if authorities themselves refuse to act: > The author of the analysis, a computational biologist named Trevor Bedford, said there are likely already at least 500 to 600 cases of Covid-19 in the greater Seattle area. He urged health authorities and the public to immediately begin adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions — imposing “social distancing” measures, telling the sick to isolate themselves, and limiting attendance at large gatherings. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/washington-state-risks-seeing-explosion-in-coronavirus-without-dramatic-action-new-analysis-says/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/washington-state-risks-s... So, practice social distancing as much as possible and encourage your friends and family to do the same (especially if you know them to be in one of the high risk groups or frequently). Similarly, advise against mass gatherings. There was just a 100,000+ person comic convention that planned to just barrel through in Seattle, but was forced to cancel because artists and attendees pushed back against it. But I’ll add that there’s mostly also agreement from the two sources. Per the above article: > Bedford said Seattle faces a stark choice — take aggressive actions to slow down the spread of the new coronavirus now or face the type of outbreak that engulfed Wuhan’s health facilities and led to a lockdown of the city that remains in place six weeks later.