> “We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively

> “We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.” > “In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%. More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.” (Edited) The wording here is confusing. It’s an average of 5.2 million cases per year for 4 years resulting in a total of 68,000 deaths over 4 years. Meaning an average of 0.325% IFR due to Flu (ILI - “influenza-like illness” in Italy. That’s a high confidence IFR based on a well established surveillance network and widespread testing. Meaning it is likely not being overstated. Versus COVID’s know case fatality rate, which is an upper bound on the IFR and known to be missing a significant number of mild cases in the general population from the denominator. I agree that it remains to be seen how bad this will be in Italy and elsewhere, but putting it in perspective to the flu (which we do not generally “fear”) is useful. [1] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...