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> [China] has the best available data set No they don't. They have large biases from the fact that mild and asymptomatic cases are underrepresented. To avoid t
by im3w1l 7y ago
> [China] has the best available data set
No they don't. They have large biases from the fact that mild and asymptomatic cases are underrepresented. To avoid that you want to look at data sets where they tested 100% of people whether they had symptoms or not.
As far as I know that is the cruise ship and the South Korean church. And they show a lower death rate.
- chaostheory 7y agoThis is interesting. Do you by any chance still have the stats?
- im3w1l 7y agohttps://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus... worth keeping in mind that the numbers are so low that there may be some significant variance at play. But the serious number should be more robust. Now Diamond Princess let's us estimate Serious / Total, and say Italy let's us estimate Death / Serious (they probably catch all serious cases, and have less variance since they have larger numbers). So it may be possible to combine to get a good estimate of Death / Total. Possibly significant source of error is age skew.
- sterlind 7y agoThis study estimated the case fatality rate (CFR, deaths among those presenting symptoms) and infection fatality rate (IFR, deaths among all who tested positive) of infected passengers on the Diamond Princess: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_crui... CFR was estimated at 2.3% and IFR at 1.2%, reflecting that roughly half of infections were asymptomatic. The downside is that the median age of passengers was 58, so it's not truly representative of CFR for all ages. (That's why people are still using data from China; the cruise ship isn't demographically representative.) You also need to consider that 15% of cases are serious, and may require mechanical ventilation. If medical systems are overwhelmed, it will go up. We saw that in Wuhan.
- im3w1l 7y agoThat study has some non-standard numbers? More deaths (6 vs 7) and fewer cases (696 vs 634). Makes me suspicious.
- cma 7y agoThe age of the South Korean church members was largely in 20s and 30s. The cruise ship crew was a large portion of total affected and few were over 65 where the big risk kicks in, and on top of that immune compromised people don’t go on cruises.