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That’s a very speculative statement. It’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up.

alasdair_ 7y ago
>That’s a very speculative statement. It’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up. Based on what data? This is something that Trump said and was immediately shut down on. We simply don't know enough to make any statements about spread probability yet.
- kalium_xyz 7y ago
  Based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sers, common cold. It and derivatives probably will be a winter cold for the next few years. Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying.
  - alasdair_ 7y ago
    >Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying. I'm also "not American" (I'm Scottish) and so shall continue to keep the fact that a lot of us are "not Americans" in mind. That being said, "it’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up" implies the weather is going to "warm up", which is only relevant in the northern hemisphere. Half the planet is going to cool down. More importantly, the CDC (yes, a USAian source), recently stated ""At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 [the illness caused by the coronavirus] will decrease when weather becomes warmer." so asking for data, or at least why this statement was claimed as "quite possible" is very reasonable. Finally, you claim that things will die down "based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sars" - here is a (peer reviewed, with abundant data) paper claiming the exact opposite of what you are claiming, specifically: "This study provided some evidence that there is a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than that in autumn and winter." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 So again I have to ask: based on what data do you draw your conclusions?
ajross 7y ago
Viruses don't care about the weather. The reason we catch more diseases in the winter is just that we spend more time indoors, physically nearer to other people. That will probably be true of COVID19 too, but the existing transmission numbers (which, to be fair, are still noisy and hard to say anything definitive about) are like an order of magnitude higher than you get for flu transmission. Summer isn't going to do squat, basically. When "most" people have had some variant of a virus in the past and have working antibodies, it's harder for diseases to spread. When everyone is vulnerable, you need far (!) fewer transmission events to double the number of infections, and things explode. This kind of misunderstanding is a big part of why so many people (including those at the top, sigh) aren't taking this seriously.
- amanaplanacanal 7y ago
  > The reason we catch more diseases in the winter is just that we spend more time indoors, physically nearer to other people. I believe that is just one theory of several possible. We don't really know why respiratory infections go down in the summer.
  - ajross 7y ago
    There are lots of unknowns in this space, but no, that model is pretty well accepted. Surely there are lots of contributing factors. But regardless, the point was that transmission of normal, already-circulating viruses is limited both by the number of transmission events and the much lower chance of infection. But a novel virus has a MUCH higher chance to hop on any given event, so in practice it's rate of spread is limited not by the chance of "catching" the bug but just by its own incubation period. Stuff like winter/summer changes on the margin aren't going to change anything.
new_realist 7y ago
How’s the weather in Iran right now?

>That’s a very speculative statement. It’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up. Based on what data? This is something that Trump said and was immediately shut down on. We simply don't know enough to make any statements about spread probability yet.

kalium_xyz 7y ago
Based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sers, common cold. It and derivatives probably will be a winter cold for the next few years. Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying.
- alasdair_ 7y ago
  >Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying. I'm also "not American" (I'm Scottish) and so shall continue to keep the fact that a lot of us are "not Americans" in mind. That being said, "it’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up" implies the weather is going to "warm up", which is only relevant in the northern hemisphere. Half the planet is going to cool down. More importantly, the CDC (yes, a USAian source), recently stated ""At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 [the illness caused by the coronavirus] will decrease when weather becomes warmer." so asking for data, or at least why this statement was claimed as "quite possible" is very reasonable. Finally, you claim that things will die down "based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sars" - here is a (peer reviewed, with abundant data) paper claiming the exact opposite of what you are claiming, specifically: "This study provided some evidence that there is a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than that in autumn and winter." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 So again I have to ask: based on what data do you draw your conclusions?

ajross 7y ago

Viruses don't care about the weather. The reason we catch more diseases in the winter is just that we spend more time indoors, physically nearer to other people. That will probably be true of COVID19 too, but the existing transmission numbers (which, to be fair, are still noisy and hard to say anything definitive about) are like an order of magnitude higher than you get for flu transmission. Summer isn't going to do squat, basically. When "most" people have had some variant of a virus in the past and have working antibodies, it's harder for diseases to spread. When everyone is vulnerable, you need far (!) fewer transmission events to double the number of infections, and things explode. This kind of misunderstanding is a big part of why so many people (including those at the top, sigh) aren't taking this seriously.

amanaplanacanal 7y ago
> The reason we catch more diseases in the winter is just that we spend more time indoors, physically nearer to other people. I believe that is just one theory of several possible. We don't really know why respiratory infections go down in the summer.
- ajross 7y ago
  There are lots of unknowns in this space, but no, that model is pretty well accepted. Surely there are lots of contributing factors. But regardless, the point was that transmission of normal, already-circulating viruses is limited both by the number of transmission events and the much lower chance of infection. But a novel virus has a MUCH higher chance to hop on any given event, so in practice it's rate of spread is limited not by the chance of "catching" the bug but just by its own incubation period. Stuff like winter/summer changes on the margin aren't going to change anything.

new_realist 7y ago

How’s the weather in Iran right now?