4 ms·

Very likely, but, I don't think they have to announce that yet. We're 2 months out.

xwdv 7y ago
Nothing will happen in 2 months that suddenly makes it safe to hold an event of that size attended by developers from all across the world. It’s over.
- positr0n 7y ago
  What about summmer? Honest question that I haven't seen discussed enough to form an opinion on. Flu and the common cold are drastically curtailed by late spring and it seems reasonable that coronavirus spread could also dramatically slow until the season starts again this fall.
  - bcrosby95 7y ago
    The only answer you're going to get out of someone that isn't talking out their ass is: hopefully it will be curtailed by summer, but we don't really know. And keep in mind that summer in some places is winter in others.
    - davidw 7y ago
      Relevant: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus... No one knows.
      - DaveEM 7y ago
        There is data on the flu and COVID-19 from parts of the world that are in summer vs. winter. As the situation evolves further this data should enable making a better educated guess: Influenza: https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/latest_update_GIP_surveillance/en/ https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/update... COVID-19: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5b... (linked from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...)
  - kalium_xyz 7y ago
    It worked for sars and mers, its reasonable to think it would happen for covid, however we dont know.
  - UncleOxidant 7y ago
    There are cases in warm places like Singapore and Thailand. Yes, they think transmission could be slowed in warm humid weather, but most warm places in the world have air conditioning.
    - inferiorhuman 7y ago
      A friend of mine recently went Guangdong -> HK -> Thailand -> US. Their logic was along the lines of: Thailand has fewer cases than Singapore because Thailand has minimal air conditioning compared to places like Singapore or the US. We'll see.
- tomerico 7y ago
  That’s a very speculative statement. It’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up.
  - alasdair_ 7y ago
    >That’s a very speculative statement. It’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up. Based on what data? This is something that Trump said and was immediately shut down on. We simply don't know enough to make any statements about spread probability yet.
    - kalium_xyz 7y ago
      Based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sers, common cold. It and derivatives probably will be a winter cold for the next few years. Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying.
      - alasdair_ 7y ago
        >Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying. I'm also "not American" (I'm Scottish) and so shall continue to keep the fact that a lot of us are "not Americans" in mind. That being said, "it’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up" implies the weather is going to "warm up", which is only relevant in the northern hemisphere. Half the planet is going to cool down. More importantly, the CDC (yes, a USAian source), recently stated ""At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 [the illness caused by the coronavirus] will decrease when weather becomes warmer." so asking for data, or at least why this statement was claimed as "quite possible" is very reasonable. Finally, you claim that things will die down "based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sars" - here is a (peer reviewed, with abundant data) paper claiming the exact opposite of what you are claiming, specifically: "This study provided some evidence that there is a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than that in autumn and winter." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 So again I have to ask: based on what data do you draw your conclusions?
- AdamJacobMuller 7y ago
  Of course it could. China could easily develop and push to humans a vaccine at a pace which would make our FDA cringe, but, once its out there and tested on humans in China there's a very small chance the FDA won't be effectively forced to allow it in the USA. Our containment efforts could prevent any significant self-sustaining communities in the USA. This seems plausible. Testing could advance to a point where Apple safely and effectively door tests attendees. This seems like something Apple would and will do, if they can (e.g. if testing advances far enough in the next month or so). I think Apple will announce a decision between 30-15 days out from the event and by that time their choice will be an obvious one.
  - chipotle_coyote 7y ago
    Apple tends to announce dates 2–3 months out from WWDC. Last year's were announced on March 14th; 2018's were announced March 13th; 2016's weren't announced until April 18th. (2017's dates were announced February 16th, but that was the first year in San Jose.) So they haven't cancelled it yet because they haven't announced it yet. They have the luxury of waiting up to another month to see how it seems things are going -- and if things go the way it seems everyone is predicting, that's absolutely what they're going to do. Personally, "WWDC moves online for 2020" seems way more likely to me than "Apple will go ahead and announce WWDC and then wait until two weeks out to see if they have to say 'sorry, everybody, see if you can get refunds for your hotel rooms and flights.'"

xwdv 7y ago

Nothing will happen in 2 months that suddenly makes it safe to hold an event of that size attended by developers from all across the world. It’s over.

positr0n 7y ago
What about summmer? Honest question that I haven't seen discussed enough to form an opinion on. Flu and the common cold are drastically curtailed by late spring and it seems reasonable that coronavirus spread could also dramatically slow until the season starts again this fall.
- bcrosby95 7y ago
  The only answer you're going to get out of someone that isn't talking out their ass is: hopefully it will be curtailed by summer, but we don't really know. And keep in mind that summer in some places is winter in others.
  - davidw 7y ago
    Relevant: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus... No one knows.
    - DaveEM 7y ago
      There is data on the flu and COVID-19 from parts of the world that are in summer vs. winter. As the situation evolves further this data should enable making a better educated guess: Influenza: https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/latest_update_GIP_surveillance/en/ https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/update... COVID-19: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5b... (linked from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...)
- kalium_xyz 7y ago
  It worked for sars and mers, its reasonable to think it would happen for covid, however we dont know.
- UncleOxidant 7y ago
  There are cases in warm places like Singapore and Thailand. Yes, they think transmission could be slowed in warm humid weather, but most warm places in the world have air conditioning.
  - inferiorhuman 7y ago
    A friend of mine recently went Guangdong -> HK -> Thailand -> US. Their logic was along the lines of: Thailand has fewer cases than Singapore because Thailand has minimal air conditioning compared to places like Singapore or the US. We'll see.
tomerico 7y ago
That’s a very speculative statement. It’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up.
- alasdair_ 7y ago
  >That’s a very speculative statement. It’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up. Based on what data? This is something that Trump said and was immediately shut down on. We simply don't know enough to make any statements about spread probability yet.
  - kalium_xyz 7y ago
    Based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sers, common cold. It and derivatives probably will be a winter cold for the next few years. Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying.
    - alasdair_ 7y ago
      >Keep in mind that a lot of us are not Americans and don’t know or care what trump is saying. I'm also "not American" (I'm Scottish) and so shall continue to keep the fact that a lot of us are "not Americans" in mind. That being said, "it’s quite possible that the Virus spread will stop as the weather warms up" implies the weather is going to "warm up", which is only relevant in the northern hemisphere. Half the planet is going to cool down. More importantly, the CDC (yes, a USAian source), recently stated ""At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 [the illness caused by the coronavirus] will decrease when weather becomes warmer." so asking for data, or at least why this statement was claimed as "quite possible" is very reasonable. Finally, you claim that things will die down "based on prior coronavirus outbreaks, e.g. mers, sars" - here is a (peer reviewed, with abundant data) paper claiming the exact opposite of what you are claiming, specifically: "This study provided some evidence that there is a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than that in autumn and winter." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15709076 So again I have to ask: based on what data do you draw your conclusions?
AdamJacobMuller 7y ago
Of course it could. China could easily develop and push to humans a vaccine at a pace which would make our FDA cringe, but, once its out there and tested on humans in China there's a very small chance the FDA won't be effectively forced to allow it in the USA. Our containment efforts could prevent any significant self-sustaining communities in the USA. This seems plausible. Testing could advance to a point where Apple safely and effectively door tests attendees. This seems like something Apple would and will do, if they can (e.g. if testing advances far enough in the next month or so). I think Apple will announce a decision between 30-15 days out from the event and by that time their choice will be an obvious one.
- chipotle_coyote 7y ago
  Apple tends to announce dates 2–3 months out from WWDC. Last year's were announced on March 14th; 2018's were announced March 13th; 2016's weren't announced until April 18th. (2017's dates were announced February 16th, but that was the first year in San Jose.) So they haven't cancelled it yet because they haven't announced it yet. They have the luxury of waiting up to another month to see how it seems things are going -- and if things go the way it seems everyone is predicting, that's absolutely what they're going to do. Personally, "WWDC moves online for 2020" seems way more likely to me than "Apple will go ahead and announce WWDC and then wait until two weeks out to see if they have to say 'sorry, everybody, see if you can get refunds for your hotel rooms and flights.'"