2 ms·

3.7% is the measured rate in China. Which has the best available data set. Which is why I used it. The CDC has consistently concluded that the real rate will

by btilly 7y ago

3.7% is the measured rate in China. Which has the best available data set. Which is why I used it. The CDC has consistently concluded that the real rate will be somewhere in the 2-4% range. There are admittedly researchers who think that cases are severely underreported. However data from other countries has been in line with the Chinese experience. If dramatically more get it, those dramatically more seem to also be less infectious. Given this, it is better to act on the higher end of evidence based estimates and to have possibly overestimated than it is to believe on the low end and find that a higher figure was appropriate. But even if you disagree with that reasoning, dropping all of my figures by a factor of 4 still comes up with figures that justify truly shocking disruptions to our lives. And the basic facts about epidemiology that I gave are still worth understanding.

nostromo 7y ago
You are wrong, that is one of the worst data sets to use, because of so many unidentified cases. Again, see the NEJM: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 Or any of the better data sets: On the Princess Cruise, a naturally controlled study, the death rate was less than 1%, with a cruise full of old people. Non-Wuhan death rate in China, where more mild cases were identified, ended up being 0.7%. https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html Goodness, there are so many chicken littles on HN nowadays.
- zaroth 7y ago
  I guess all I can do for this poor comment is vouch and upvote. Sad to see that fearmongering and bad data compounded by bad math is ruling the day.
- YZF 7y ago
  On the Princess Cruise everyone received top notch care. What if there were no available hospital beds and respirators? What would be the death rate when the medical system is so overwhelmed none of the acute cases can receive any medical care? That's the number that should influence how far we go in trying to control transmission. In Israel the single serious case is 38 years old. He is on a respirator. No some 80+. IIRC from the Washington cases there were some in their 20s who are hospitalized. Israel is less likely to have random unknown cases given their stringent border control, quarantines and testing.
- ALittleLight 7y ago
  There are multiple conflicting reports of the death rate. However, if hospitals are overwhelmed by the serious cares, which I've seen estimated at 15-20% then the death rate, whatever it is, will surely rise as serious cases go unattended.
im3w1l 7y ago
> [China] has the best available data set No they don't. They have large biases from the fact that mild and asymptomatic cases are underrepresented. To avoid that you want to look at data sets where they tested 100% of people whether they had symptoms or not. As far as I know that is the cruise ship and the South Korean church. And they show a lower death rate.
- chaostheory 7y ago
  This is interesting. Do you by any chance still have the stats?
  - im3w1l 7y ago
    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus... worth keeping in mind that the numbers are so low that there may be some significant variance at play. But the serious number should be more robust. Now Diamond Princess let's us estimate Serious / Total, and say Italy let's us estimate Death / Serious (they probably catch all serious cases, and have less variance since they have larger numbers). So it may be possible to combine to get a good estimate of Death / Total. Possibly significant source of error is age skew.
- sterlind 7y ago
  This study estimated the case fatality rate (CFR, deaths among those presenting symptoms) and infection fatality rate (IFR, deaths among all who tested positive) of infected passengers on the Diamond Princess: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_crui... CFR was estimated at 2.3% and IFR at 1.2%, reflecting that roughly half of infections were asymptomatic. The downside is that the median age of passengers was 58, so it's not truly representative of CFR for all ages. (That's why people are still using data from China; the cruise ship isn't demographically representative.) You also need to consider that 15% of cases are serious, and may require mechanical ventilation. If medical systems are overwhelmed, it will go up. We saw that in Wuhan.

by btilly 7y ago

nostromo 7y ago

You are wrong, that is one of the worst data sets to use, because of so many unidentified cases. Again, see the NEJM: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 Or any of the better data sets: On the Princess Cruise, a naturally controlled study, the death rate was less than 1%, with a cruise full of old people. Non-Wuhan death rate in China, where more mild cases were identified, ended up being 0.7%. https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html Goodness, there are so many chicken littles on HN nowadays.

zaroth 7y ago
I guess all I can do for this poor comment is vouch and upvote. Sad to see that fearmongering and bad data compounded by bad math is ruling the day.
YZF 7y ago
On the Princess Cruise everyone received top notch care. What if there were no available hospital beds and respirators? What would be the death rate when the medical system is so overwhelmed none of the acute cases can receive any medical care? That's the number that should influence how far we go in trying to control transmission. In Israel the single serious case is 38 years old. He is on a respirator. No some 80+. IIRC from the Washington cases there were some in their 20s who are hospitalized. Israel is less likely to have random unknown cases given their stringent border control, quarantines and testing.
ALittleLight 7y ago
There are multiple conflicting reports of the death rate. However, if hospitals are overwhelmed by the serious cares, which I've seen estimated at 15-20% then the death rate, whatever it is, will surely rise as serious cases go unattended.

im3w1l 7y ago

> [China] has the best available data set No they don't. They have large biases from the fact that mild and asymptomatic cases are underrepresented. To avoid that you want to look at data sets where they tested 100% of people whether they had symptoms or not. As far as I know that is the cruise ship and the South Korean church. And they show a lower death rate.

chaostheory 7y ago
This is interesting. Do you by any chance still have the stats?
- im3w1l 7y ago
  https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus... worth keeping in mind that the numbers are so low that there may be some significant variance at play. But the serious number should be more robust. Now Diamond Princess let's us estimate Serious / Total, and say Italy let's us estimate Death / Serious (they probably catch all serious cases, and have less variance since they have larger numbers). So it may be possible to combine to get a good estimate of Death / Total. Possibly significant source of error is age skew.
sterlind 7y ago
This study estimated the case fatality rate (CFR, deaths among those presenting symptoms) and infection fatality rate (IFR, deaths among all who tested positive) of infected passengers on the Diamond Princess: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_crui... CFR was estimated at 2.3% and IFR at 1.2%, reflecting that roughly half of infections were asymptomatic. The downside is that the median age of passengers was 58, so it's not truly representative of CFR for all ages. (That's why people are still using data from China; the cruise ship isn't demographically representative.) You also need to consider that 15% of cases are serious, and may require mechanical ventilation. If medical systems are overwhelmed, it will go up. We saw that in Wuhan.