8 ms·

I honestly believe that the Corona virus is more of an illness of mass psychological fear than it is a Virus. I'm not saying the virus isn't real, or that those

I honestly believe that the Corona virus is more of an illness of mass psychological fear than it is a Virus. I'm not saying the virus isn't real, or that those who suffer from it aren't real. I'm simply saying that, at least for the US according to the CDC, 260 people have become ill and 14 people dead... which is nothing compared to 300,000,000 entering a state of unreasonable fear. I know people who don't get a yearly flu shot (50,000 dead/year), don't wash their hands before eating (most viral and bacterial infections aren't airborne), smoke (400,000 dead/year), drink (80,000 dead/year) and regularly drive late at night when tired (35,000 dead/year)... yet they are taking every possible precaution against corona virus, because they don't want to be the 15th death. It's so weird. Again, not saying it isn't an issue or doesn't exist or can't become a bigger issue. Just that the fear is so disproportional to the threat, it's mind blowing for me. It feels like some mass psychotic event. I'm just disconnected enough from most people's reality that I can't seem to share in it, so I stand a contrarian outsider like I've always been, scratching my head.

save_ferris 7y ago
> the fear is so disproportional to the threat Sadly, this is true for so much of American culture re: our current politics and social fears. We live in a culture that explicitly governs on and trafficks in fear. I don’t think we ever got out of fear mode after 9/11, but reasonable people can disagree here. Also, people aren’t just thinking about themselves, they’re taking into account the risk of transmission to a loved one who’s in a higher-risk age group. I’d hate to contract coronavirus and pass it on to my parents who’re in their 60’s.
- NicolasGorden 7y ago
  It's odd, the safer our societies become, the more fearful people get. I used to live in a 2nd world country and it seems people were less fearful there, even if they had more to fear. It's like we collectively somehow miss having real things to worry about. I guess the biggest issues in first world countries (heart disease, cancer, suicide, car accidents), are mostly things that boil down to individual internal battles related to our daily choices. And improving those is a humbling, long and not particularly glamorous process. It's grappling with the millions of shortcomings we all know we have and we all know how to fix.
  - refurb 7y ago
    It's odd, the safer our societies become, the more fearful people get. My theory is the law of diminishing returns. We’ve made incredible progress in identifying and minimizing risks of disease and accident. Once we deal with those, we go down the list to the next one. At this point, we’re working on things that are relatively minor risks, but still treat them as if they were high risks.
  - andrekandre 7y ago
    > It's odd, the safer our societies become, the more fearful people get. I used to live in a 2nd world country and it seems people were less fearful there, even if they had more to fear. It's like we collectively somehow miss having real things to worry about. maybe it’s akin to allergic reactions... where certain people who grow up unaccustomed to certain allergens end up with their immune system overreacting... maybe in our society, in everyday life we aren’t accustomed to certain stimuli and even relatively (to other countries) small shocks can lead to overreaction... just an idea...
    - NicolasGorden 7y ago
      Wow, what a way of thinking about it. Truly thank you. Helps me understand more.
btilly 7y ago
If we fail to take dramatic measures, the projected number of deaths in the USA is similar to the Holocaust. If we take dramatic measures we have a good chance of heading off that outcome. This is worthwhile even though it will hopefully look like a crazy overreaction to the actual fatalities. I agree that most of the people who are reacting are way overreacting to the actual facts and risks. But I strongly preferring them erring in the direction that they err than having them dismiss the risk based on few current fatalities as you are doing.
- nostromo 7y ago
  You're using bad data. Fatality rates in places other than Wuhan (which had many undiagnosed cases due to limited resources in the outbreak) have all been less than 1%.
  - inferiorhuman 7y ago
    Fatality rates in places other than Wuhan (which had many undiagnosed cases due to limited resources in the outbreak) have all been less than 1%. At the low end (deaths / total cases) Italy is seeing a 4.25% CFR.
    - nostromo 7y ago
      Italy has no idea how many total cases they have, which is why nobody is using their data to calculate a fatality rate.
      - inferiorhuman 7y ago
        Only numbers that meet your world view count? Got it. If you use the smaller number of ISS confirmed cases in Italy the numbers look much worse. Meanwhile Spain and Hong Kong are showing CFRs around 2%, France around 1.3%. The United States? About 5.4% so far. As for me, I'd trust the Italian numbers far more than anything coming out of China, especially after their reporting on the SARS-1 outbreak. It's not a minor, nothing-to-see here event.
natalyarostova 7y ago
Meanwhile, our hospitals in Seattle are already filling up, and they're diverting people to further hospitals; as this is a virus with an extremely high hospitalization rate. We all need to do what we can to keep those hospitalizations low, so our medical system doesn't collapse and turn people away who need ventilation. That means doing your part to not be a vector of infection.
- nostromo 7y ago
  Seattle hospitals appear to be filling up because of unnecessary panic, not because of COVID-19. The point you responded to, of not overreacting, is indeed correct.
  - natalyarostova 7y ago
    I would love it if you're all correct on this. The problem I face is that I do notice other countries who are a week or two ahead of us really struggling, and taking increasingly drastic measures to try and maintain control. I guess I just don't really understand the argument people are making who are saying we are overreacting. Are you saying we should do nothing, and just accept some tens of thousands of deaths and overburdened hospitals across all major cities? Or that this isn't really a big deal or contagious, and we should just ignore it? It seems to me that the prudent and responsible thing is for us all to do our best to lower the secondary infection rate, in order to guard against these outcomes.
    - tracker1 7y ago
      Not at all... follow best practices... wash your hands (before and after restroom use, before and after food prep or touching money), stay home if you're sick and for employers emphasize this and work as well as possible around the issue. Don't panic. In the end, it will spread, it will kill, and the only thing panic does is make things worse. If people washed their hands more and stayed home when sick instead of working through it, that's the most you probably should do.
      - 7y ago
sillysaurusx 7y ago
The panic is entirely rational. Even pg is panicking: https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1235247452145451013 https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1235247452145451013 I understand why you might feel that way. I used to feel the same. But I think at this point if you're not panicking, you might not have fully absorbed the literature. From my point of view here in Seattle, we're already seeing some minor effects: No one can find any toilet paper. Sounds minor, right? But it won't feel so minor when it's food rather than TP. The virus isn't the issue. The issue is people. Everyone wants to maximize their chance of being completely unaffected by this disease. When everybody does that simultaneously, we're in trouble. Suppose a million cases do happen. Who will care for them? Do we even have a million hospital beds? We just surpassed 100k cases today. I recommend watching https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... over the next week or so. It's quite astonishing to see the numbers climb. I remember when South Korea hit 100 cases. That was about two weeks ago. Now they're at 6.5k.
- WoahNoun 7y ago
  >in Seattle, we're already seeing some minor effects: No one can find any toilet paper. The only report on this I could find was one costco. And the costco's around seattle are already basically mad chaos even during normal times. Every safeway, qfc, target, bartells, etc I've been to this week is well stocked on toilet paper. No hand sanitizer, but plenty of TP. And if you are that desperate, Amazon Prime Now has plenty of toilet paper ready for 1-hour delivery right this second. At least in my zip code.
  - hawaiianbrah 7y ago
    The QFC in U Village is about empty of TP. Just walked down the aisle.
- tastyfreeze 7y ago
  I'm right there with you. This is serious enough that production and supply chains may be disrupted. So far, it is proactive people preparing to stay home. What about the other 90% of the population that is reactive? Will there be enough food on shelves to supply people when schools close and community quarantines start? I am down the supply chain from Seattle. I fully expect to see empty shelves in our grocery in a month.
gibolt 7y ago
This is the normal human cycle. We did the same for things as big as terrorism and as small as every tiny thing that teenagers have ever done, broadcast via the local news. People freak out at things that are different; not normal. It absolutely is irrational. The fact that smoking marketing smoking is still legal is all the proof you need that numbers and death rates are meaningless.
viggity 7y ago
Influenza has a CFR of 0.1%, COVID has CFR of 2-3% (20-30x higher). Officially the CFR for COVID is ~3.3% but it is thought that is too high because there is thought to be many people who have it who are asymptomatic or have a mild reaction. It is estimated that 40-70% of adults will contract it in the US this year. That is 83 million people in the US alone. 10-15% of COVID patients have Acute Respiratory Distress. 10% * 40% * 209M adults => 8.3 million people that would need to be hospitalized. What is the CFR when hospitals can't cope with a fraction of that? If the CFR is 2% and 40% get it, that is 2.1 million dead people this year alone, in the US, alone. As paulg tweeted the other day (I'll update his number)... There are 20.5k cases outside of China. That number doubles every 3 days. That means there will be 2.6 million cases in 3 weeks. We have to do everything we can to slow it down, buy us time to try antivirals, buy us time to get to summer where heat, humidity and mass doses of Vitamin D can help keep numbers down.
- btilly 7y ago
  The pg response is particularly interesting because he's spent a good chunk of his life thinking about the startling implications of trends on exponential curves. (With particular reference to helping startups get on and maintain exponential curves, and making a lot of money as a result.)
  - appleiigs 7y ago
    Has pg spent a good chunk of his life studying viruses and infection rates? No. If he had, he'd note that exponential curves don't fit the real world... if it did why is China only at 80K after almost 2 months?
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - lern_too_spel 7y ago
      China has taken drastic measures that the US is unwilling to take.
tracker1 7y ago
I wish I could vote you up more than once... I've been saying to people, pragmatically have a couple weeks of food and water, just to get past any logistical issues likely to come up... you don't need to panic, don't need to buy into the fear and for the most part things will be fine. People are going crazy on this one.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
monkeycantype 7y ago
I get it. But if I get the virus, sure I'll probably be ok. Others that I pass it to might not. I'll need to self isolate, which means I'll need to stay away from my children and parents for two weeks? four weeks? That's going to be very hard to do. Maybe I could stay at home with my children and they will be fine, but then they will need to be kept isolated. How long will the stigma and fear around them last, six months? How long till the rest of my family are comfortable letting my kids see their grandparents again. If I get the virus, it will be very difficult to do all the things I'll need to do as a responsible adult. It would be magnificent if we all treated this like a natural disaster and for the next two months, not in a state of panic in which we're all gunning to be the last player standing, but from an intention of mutual aid - do what we can to make it very difficult for viruses to transmit - wash our hands, wear masks and disposable gloves out in public, clean surfaces with disinfectant wipes. In two months this might be gone. It's a small, thin hope, but what if we can use this current enigmatic and existential crisis, to practise co-operating to handle the much bigger crises that loom further ahead in the century?
- NicolasGorden 7y ago
  > It would be magnificent if we all treated this like a natural disaster We already have massive issues that are an enigmatic and existential crisis in the US: 647,457 deaths/year from heart disease. 599,108 deaths/year from cancer. 169,936 deaths/year from accidents. 160,201 deaths/year from respiratory illnesses. 50,00 deaths/year from influenza and another 48,000 deaths/year from suicide. 14 deaths total for Corona Virus. If literally half the American population was infected by the Corona Virus (which is way, way, way higher than any health official estimate puts it), we would have less deaths than we do from heart disease alone. I believe this: our real existential crisis require complex solutions that will take way more than two months. They generally involve making better personal choices: avoiding sugar and fatty/salty foods, not smoking, driving less, getting some exercise, being less stressed, being kinder to each other. But the thing is, when we know the issue and the solution, then we are the problem and it involves looking inward and having a humbling, horrible, daily struggle with the shortcomings we all have. We have to make millions of choices and we will fail making the correct ones most of the time. That's a pretty grim reality. It's quite grating to be constantly recognizing our shortcomings in an effort to self improve. Like the procrastinator who cleans his desk because he doesn't want to sit down and do the hard work, I feel the Corona Virus is a real issue, but at the same time a distraction. Sure, we need to clean our desk, and pay attention to the Corona Virus. But if there's a big problem which is hard to solve and involves looking in, most people will focus on the small problem and look out. A lack of perspective can make a person easily enter into a state of frenzy and uncontrolled fear, especially when others around them are entering it.
pcmonk 7y ago
Seven weeks ago there were ~100 cases in Wuhan, now there's 60k. What's to stop that from happening in Seattle, or the Bay, or anywhere else in the developed world that isn't taking the precautions China did?
- tastyfreeze 7y ago
  Absolutely nothing. It is likely that Seattle is already out of control. But, we won't know how bad its going to be for a week or two. King County buying a motel to house sick people is rather telling. Its an action that suggest they know it is going to be bad but don't want to say so and freak people out. I think it is going to be worse in the US than China. We have an individualist culture that routinely goes to work sick.
  - ryukafalz 7y ago
    > We have an individualist culture that routinely goes to work sick. And a lack of a social safety net to help people avoid going to work sick.
    - dorchadas 7y ago
      This is going to be the real issue, in my opinion. People will go to work sick because they have no other choice. And it'll spread. And, who knows, we might even have some crazy-ass cult here that purposefully goes in sick and tries to spread it (I read an article that Korea had a cult like that).
  - dillondoyle 7y ago
    It's frustrating. We have no office hours and staff can work anywhere with internet - and anytime so long as they get work done. They are salaried no incentive to show up at offie whatsoever. We've sent emails, reminded at in person meetings. Yet they still show up coughing. One employee like every minute a dry cough.. We talked to them in person, sent them home. And then they show up two days later same cough if not worse! The excuse: i had an in person meeting!!! drives me insane. I can only do so much and really feels like the only thing I can control is my exposure but I don't want to over react and become a hermit if we cant get our salaried staff who can already work from anywhere to stay home I feel scared that there's no way in hell hourly service workers would do it.
deleted 7y ago
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inimino 7y ago
Your argument against caution would have worked just as "well" in China after the first 14 cases, but if you had made that argument then, think how stupid it would sound now with what has already happened in Wuhan. None of the annual death counts you cite are exponential processes (with unknown growth rates) at the beginning of the growth curve. So either you don't understand exponential growth or you are being intellectually dishonest in acting as if these numbers are in any way comparable. In the face of a pandemic that may kill an unknown percentage of the population the precautionary principle absolutely applies, and even if the total cases in the US never goes over 1000, the measures now being taken will have been the right choice because the risk of uncontrolled spread is unacceptable.
- NicolasGorden 7y ago
  I'm baffled that you found a way to read my comment and think it's 'against caution'. Could you please tell me where I said that I'm 'against caution' or in any way implied it. I'm really interested. I 100% support the recommendations of the CDC and WHO, who literally advise against the hysteria since it is hurting their response: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-... They also provide a list of suggestions which I think is what people should focus on, and then continue living as normal: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-... Since I literally already do all the things they suggest, and I think most reasonable people do, then I'm not sure what else we should do?
  - inimino 7y ago
    I'm not sure what you consider "hysteria", since you haven't said, but in case you forgot, the comment you replied to was about people staying home and canceling travel plans, and the economic impact of this, not about hoarding PPE. Staying home and canceling travel plans is the caution your comment seems to argue against. I responded to your comment in this context, and to your non sequitur "number 15" argument.

save_ferris 7y ago

> the fear is so disproportional to the threat Sadly, this is true for so much of American culture re: our current politics and social fears. We live in a culture that explicitly governs on and trafficks in fear. I don’t think we ever got out of fear mode after 9/11, but reasonable people can disagree here. Also, people aren’t just thinking about themselves, they’re taking into account the risk of transmission to a loved one who’s in a higher-risk age group. I’d hate to contract coronavirus and pass it on to my parents who’re in their 60’s.

NicolasGorden 7y ago
It's odd, the safer our societies become, the more fearful people get. I used to live in a 2nd world country and it seems people were less fearful there, even if they had more to fear. It's like we collectively somehow miss having real things to worry about. I guess the biggest issues in first world countries (heart disease, cancer, suicide, car accidents), are mostly things that boil down to individual internal battles related to our daily choices. And improving those is a humbling, long and not particularly glamorous process. It's grappling with the millions of shortcomings we all know we have and we all know how to fix.
- refurb 7y ago
  It's odd, the safer our societies become, the more fearful people get. My theory is the law of diminishing returns. We’ve made incredible progress in identifying and minimizing risks of disease and accident. Once we deal with those, we go down the list to the next one. At this point, we’re working on things that are relatively minor risks, but still treat them as if they were high risks.
- andrekandre 7y ago
  > It's odd, the safer our societies become, the more fearful people get. I used to live in a 2nd world country and it seems people were less fearful there, even if they had more to fear. It's like we collectively somehow miss having real things to worry about. maybe it’s akin to allergic reactions... where certain people who grow up unaccustomed to certain allergens end up with their immune system overreacting... maybe in our society, in everyday life we aren’t accustomed to certain stimuli and even relatively (to other countries) small shocks can lead to overreaction... just an idea...
  - NicolasGorden 7y ago
    Wow, what a way of thinking about it. Truly thank you. Helps me understand more.

btilly 7y ago

If we fail to take dramatic measures, the projected number of deaths in the USA is similar to the Holocaust. If we take dramatic measures we have a good chance of heading off that outcome. This is worthwhile even though it will hopefully look like a crazy overreaction to the actual fatalities. I agree that most of the people who are reacting are way overreacting to the actual facts and risks. But I strongly preferring them erring in the direction that they err than having them dismiss the risk based on few current fatalities as you are doing.

nostromo 7y ago
You're using bad data. Fatality rates in places other than Wuhan (which had many undiagnosed cases due to limited resources in the outbreak) have all been less than 1%.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  Fatality rates in places other than Wuhan (which had many undiagnosed cases due to limited resources in the outbreak) have all been less than 1%. At the low end (deaths / total cases) Italy is seeing a 4.25% CFR.
  - nostromo 7y ago
    Italy has no idea how many total cases they have, which is why nobody is using their data to calculate a fatality rate.
    - inferiorhuman 7y ago
      Only numbers that meet your world view count? Got it. If you use the smaller number of ISS confirmed cases in Italy the numbers look much worse. Meanwhile Spain and Hong Kong are showing CFRs around 2%, France around 1.3%. The United States? About 5.4% so far. As for me, I'd trust the Italian numbers far more than anything coming out of China, especially after their reporting on the SARS-1 outbreak. It's not a minor, nothing-to-see here event.

natalyarostova 7y ago

Meanwhile, our hospitals in Seattle are already filling up, and they're diverting people to further hospitals; as this is a virus with an extremely high hospitalization rate. We all need to do what we can to keep those hospitalizations low, so our medical system doesn't collapse and turn people away who need ventilation. That means doing your part to not be a vector of infection.

nostromo 7y ago
Seattle hospitals appear to be filling up because of unnecessary panic, not because of COVID-19. The point you responded to, of not overreacting, is indeed correct.
- natalyarostova 7y ago
  I would love it if you're all correct on this. The problem I face is that I do notice other countries who are a week or two ahead of us really struggling, and taking increasingly drastic measures to try and maintain control. I guess I just don't really understand the argument people are making who are saying we are overreacting. Are you saying we should do nothing, and just accept some tens of thousands of deaths and overburdened hospitals across all major cities? Or that this isn't really a big deal or contagious, and we should just ignore it? It seems to me that the prudent and responsible thing is for us all to do our best to lower the secondary infection rate, in order to guard against these outcomes.
  - tracker1 7y ago
    Not at all... follow best practices... wash your hands (before and after restroom use, before and after food prep or touching money), stay home if you're sick and for employers emphasize this and work as well as possible around the issue. Don't panic. In the end, it will spread, it will kill, and the only thing panic does is make things worse. If people washed their hands more and stayed home when sick instead of working through it, that's the most you probably should do.
    - 7y ago

sillysaurusx 7y ago

The panic is entirely rational. Even pg is panicking: https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1235247452145451013 https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1235247452145451013 I understand why you might feel that way. I used to feel the same. But I think at this point if you're not panicking, you might not have fully absorbed the literature. From my point of view here in Seattle, we're already seeing some minor effects: No one can find any toilet paper. Sounds minor, right? But it won't feel so minor when it's food rather than TP. The virus isn't the issue. The issue is people. Everyone wants to maximize their chance of being completely unaffected by this disease. When everybody does that simultaneously, we're in trouble. Suppose a million cases do happen. Who will care for them? Do we even have a million hospital beds? We just surpassed 100k cases today. I recommend watching https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... over the next week or so. It's quite astonishing to see the numbers climb. I remember when South Korea hit 100 cases. That was about two weeks ago. Now they're at 6.5k.

WoahNoun 7y ago
>in Seattle, we're already seeing some minor effects: No one can find any toilet paper. The only report on this I could find was one costco. And the costco's around seattle are already basically mad chaos even during normal times. Every safeway, qfc, target, bartells, etc I've been to this week is well stocked on toilet paper. No hand sanitizer, but plenty of TP. And if you are that desperate, Amazon Prime Now has plenty of toilet paper ready for 1-hour delivery right this second. At least in my zip code.
- hawaiianbrah 7y ago
  The QFC in U Village is about empty of TP. Just walked down the aisle.
tastyfreeze 7y ago
I'm right there with you. This is serious enough that production and supply chains may be disrupted. So far, it is proactive people preparing to stay home. What about the other 90% of the population that is reactive? Will there be enough food on shelves to supply people when schools close and community quarantines start? I am down the supply chain from Seattle. I fully expect to see empty shelves in our grocery in a month.

gibolt 7y ago

This is the normal human cycle. We did the same for things as big as terrorism and as small as every tiny thing that teenagers have ever done, broadcast via the local news. People freak out at things that are different; not normal. It absolutely is irrational. The fact that smoking marketing smoking is still legal is all the proof you need that numbers and death rates are meaningless.

viggity 7y ago

Influenza has a CFR of 0.1%, COVID has CFR of 2-3% (20-30x higher). Officially the CFR for COVID is ~3.3% but it is thought that is too high because there is thought to be many people who have it who are asymptomatic or have a mild reaction. It is estimated that 40-70% of adults will contract it in the US this year. That is 83 million people in the US alone. 10-15% of COVID patients have Acute Respiratory Distress. 10% * 40% * 209M adults => 8.3 million people that would need to be hospitalized. What is the CFR when hospitals can't cope with a fraction of that? If the CFR is 2% and 40% get it, that is 2.1 million dead people this year alone, in the US, alone. As paulg tweeted the other day (I'll update his number)... There are 20.5k cases outside of China. That number doubles every 3 days. That means there will be 2.6 million cases in 3 weeks. We have to do everything we can to slow it down, buy us time to try antivirals, buy us time to get to summer where heat, humidity and mass doses of Vitamin D can help keep numbers down.

btilly 7y ago
The pg response is particularly interesting because he's spent a good chunk of his life thinking about the startling implications of trends on exponential curves. (With particular reference to helping startups get on and maintain exponential curves, and making a lot of money as a result.)
- appleiigs 7y ago
  Has pg spent a good chunk of his life studying viruses and infection rates? No. If he had, he'd note that exponential curves don't fit the real world... if it did why is China only at 80K after almost 2 months?
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - lern_too_spel 7y ago
    China has taken drastic measures that the US is unwilling to take.

tracker1 7y ago

I wish I could vote you up more than once... I've been saying to people, pragmatically have a couple weeks of food and water, just to get past any logistical issues likely to come up... you don't need to panic, don't need to buy into the fear and for the most part things will be fine. People are going crazy on this one.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

monkeycantype 7y ago

I get it. But if I get the virus, sure I'll probably be ok. Others that I pass it to might not. I'll need to self isolate, which means I'll need to stay away from my children and parents for two weeks? four weeks? That's going to be very hard to do. Maybe I could stay at home with my children and they will be fine, but then they will need to be kept isolated. How long will the stigma and fear around them last, six months? How long till the rest of my family are comfortable letting my kids see their grandparents again. If I get the virus, it will be very difficult to do all the things I'll need to do as a responsible adult. It would be magnificent if we all treated this like a natural disaster and for the next two months, not in a state of panic in which we're all gunning to be the last player standing, but from an intention of mutual aid - do what we can to make it very difficult for viruses to transmit - wash our hands, wear masks and disposable gloves out in public, clean surfaces with disinfectant wipes. In two months this might be gone. It's a small, thin hope, but what if we can use this current enigmatic and existential crisis, to practise co-operating to handle the much bigger crises that loom further ahead in the century?

NicolasGorden 7y ago
> It would be magnificent if we all treated this like a natural disaster We already have massive issues that are an enigmatic and existential crisis in the US: 647,457 deaths/year from heart disease. 599,108 deaths/year from cancer. 169,936 deaths/year from accidents. 160,201 deaths/year from respiratory illnesses. 50,00 deaths/year from influenza and another 48,000 deaths/year from suicide. 14 deaths total for Corona Virus. If literally half the American population was infected by the Corona Virus (which is way, way, way higher than any health official estimate puts it), we would have less deaths than we do from heart disease alone. I believe this: our real existential crisis require complex solutions that will take way more than two months. They generally involve making better personal choices: avoiding sugar and fatty/salty foods, not smoking, driving less, getting some exercise, being less stressed, being kinder to each other. But the thing is, when we know the issue and the solution, then we are the problem and it involves looking inward and having a humbling, horrible, daily struggle with the shortcomings we all have. We have to make millions of choices and we will fail making the correct ones most of the time. That's a pretty grim reality. It's quite grating to be constantly recognizing our shortcomings in an effort to self improve. Like the procrastinator who cleans his desk because he doesn't want to sit down and do the hard work, I feel the Corona Virus is a real issue, but at the same time a distraction. Sure, we need to clean our desk, and pay attention to the Corona Virus. But if there's a big problem which is hard to solve and involves looking in, most people will focus on the small problem and look out. A lack of perspective can make a person easily enter into a state of frenzy and uncontrolled fear, especially when others around them are entering it.

pcmonk 7y ago

Seven weeks ago there were ~100 cases in Wuhan, now there's 60k. What's to stop that from happening in Seattle, or the Bay, or anywhere else in the developed world that isn't taking the precautions China did?

tastyfreeze 7y ago
Absolutely nothing. It is likely that Seattle is already out of control. But, we won't know how bad its going to be for a week or two. King County buying a motel to house sick people is rather telling. Its an action that suggest they know it is going to be bad but don't want to say so and freak people out. I think it is going to be worse in the US than China. We have an individualist culture that routinely goes to work sick.
- ryukafalz 7y ago
  > We have an individualist culture that routinely goes to work sick. And a lack of a social safety net to help people avoid going to work sick.
  - dorchadas 7y ago
    This is going to be the real issue, in my opinion. People will go to work sick because they have no other choice. And it'll spread. And, who knows, we might even have some crazy-ass cult here that purposefully goes in sick and tries to spread it (I read an article that Korea had a cult like that).
- dillondoyle 7y ago
  It's frustrating. We have no office hours and staff can work anywhere with internet - and anytime so long as they get work done. They are salaried no incentive to show up at offie whatsoever. We've sent emails, reminded at in person meetings. Yet they still show up coughing. One employee like every minute a dry cough.. We talked to them in person, sent them home. And then they show up two days later same cough if not worse! The excuse: i had an in person meeting!!! drives me insane. I can only do so much and really feels like the only thing I can control is my exposure but I don't want to over react and become a hermit if we cant get our salaried staff who can already work from anywhere to stay home I feel scared that there's no way in hell hourly service workers would do it.

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inimino 7y ago

Your argument against caution would have worked just as "well" in China after the first 14 cases, but if you had made that argument then, think how stupid it would sound now with what has already happened in Wuhan. None of the annual death counts you cite are exponential processes (with unknown growth rates) at the beginning of the growth curve. So either you don't understand exponential growth or you are being intellectually dishonest in acting as if these numbers are in any way comparable. In the face of a pandemic that may kill an unknown percentage of the population the precautionary principle absolutely applies, and even if the total cases in the US never goes over 1000, the measures now being taken will have been the right choice because the risk of uncontrolled spread is unacceptable.

NicolasGorden 7y ago
I'm baffled that you found a way to read my comment and think it's 'against caution'. Could you please tell me where I said that I'm 'against caution' or in any way implied it. I'm really interested. I 100% support the recommendations of the CDC and WHO, who literally advise against the hysteria since it is hurting their response: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-... They also provide a list of suggestions which I think is what people should focus on, and then continue living as normal: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-... Since I literally already do all the things they suggest, and I think most reasonable people do, then I'm not sure what else we should do?
- inimino 7y ago
  I'm not sure what you consider "hysteria", since you haven't said, but in case you forgot, the comment you replied to was about people staying home and canceling travel plans, and the economic impact of this, not about hoarding PPE. Staying home and canceling travel plans is the caution your comment seems to argue against. I responded to your comment in this context, and to your non sequitur "number 15" argument.