Most people should be behaving normally with some added protections (like washing their hands), and those who are at high-risk should be protected. You would t

Most people should be behaving normally with some added protections (like washing their hands), and those who are at high-risk should be protected. You would think, but you would be wrong. Here is the fundamental math. There is a number called https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number which is how many people the average infected person infects in turn. If that figure is above 1, the epidemic spreads and some nontrivial fraction of the total population will get sick. The exact number who catch it is impossible to calculate since the relationship between the basic reproduction number and how many people eventually get the disease is chaotic. But if that figure can be reduced below 1, the disease dies out on its own. It took draconian measures, but this is already happening in China. Public health officials have a variety of strategies available depending on the situation. But the choices from most desirable to least is as follows. 1. If possible, get the basic reproduction number below 1. 2. If not possible, encourage at risk groups to get extra protection so that as the disease sweeps through, as many as possible don't get it. 3. Be overwhelmed. The current strategy is focused on the first option. As noted, the basic reproduction rate is already below 1 in China and the disease is dying out there. If it escapes, the second option will be tried. But an epidemic that hospitalizes 20% of victims and kills 3% will, if we accept #2, leave us quickly at #3. And as much as a temporary slowdown of the economy loses us all, figuring out how to some up with a reasonable substitute for hospitalizing 20% of the country when we don't have medical staff (knowing that a failure to figure it out will result in much higher casualty rates) will have much greater economic impacts. It turns out that we can quantify it. Based on https://www.theglobalist.com/the-cost-of-a-human-life-statistically-speaking/ https://www.theglobalist.com/the-cost-of-a-human-life-statis... it is reasonable to say that we value a human life at about $8 million. If half of 327 million Americans get sick and (as current rates have it, 3.7% of them die, the economic impact is about $48.4 trillion. That is about the same as the US economy for 2 years. If losing 1/4 of our economy for 6 months, and then suffer similar economic damage on the path to recovery, gives us even odds of preventing this, we absolutely should panic. And, as China demonstrates, it IS still possible to prevent this outcome. It will take heroics. But it is possible.