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> But it will get very ugly if the market tightens and Intel can only lose both revenues and profits in a price war. There is no way to maintain at all. Period.

by chx 7y ago

> But it will get very ugly if the market tightens and Intel can only lose both revenues and profits in a price war. There is no way to maintain at all. Period. Yeah adding "period" to a sentence like that totally makes up for the lack of data backing it. AMD spent years in the red and they didn't disappear. I looked it up and Intel cash on hand for the quarter ending December 31, 2019 was $13.123B, a 12.64% increase year-over-year. That's about two quarters profit. Their debt to equity ratio is 0.33 which is on the lower end. They could double their ~29B debt if badly necessary and still be considered a good investment. That two together makes for one gigantic war chest...

Zenst 7y ago
Interesting and in comparison: Nvidia: 0.21 AMD: 0.17 https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/debt-equity-ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/debt-e... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/debt-equity-ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/debt-equit... Though as we have all come to learn, the market these days is more exposed to perception buying and selling over more robust analytical buying and selling. That and a little dynamic movement can easily amplify by automated trading and reaction trading. AMD can only gain traction in the graphics consumer market and that may well pan out, though much seems to be riding upon RDNA2 and that is looking like late in the year, this with new consols scheduled for end of the year and that was prior to recent supplier dynamics may well well see those slip into next year. We have seen the larger datacenters start to take note of AMD more and iirc cloudflare as well as Google buying some AMD offerings in more earnest. The time for those to traction won't be instant either, so any growth will be a while until measured. But AMD from most people you talk with, seem to be in a good position and it has been a while since they had that postition (decades really), they seem to keep that momentum going and have a path to do that. So even if they don't start to make fast inroads into the datacenter, they are slowly gaining momentum and Intel is loosing momentum. However, the recent supplier dynamics due to the recent human malware will impact all. So many aspects that make it hard to call, but however it goes, I don't see AMD nor Intel worried more than any other company. Though AMD may well be more exposed to supplier chain dynamics more than Intel and that advantage to Intel (having own fabs) can only sit in Intels favour. However, the real one to watch will be RISCV and also ARM and recent developments by Fujitsu with the A64FX (well worth reading about as very interesting) stealing the TDP crown. Things may well get very interesting, though in technology, it always is and that is why we all enjoy and love it. Also worth noting that the recent human malware will see a drive in working from home and that may well shift buying requirements for many businesses, which could see an increase in datacenter usage, though that will be at the expense of local buying. As always, many dynamics, but perception does seem to be more of a factor than any common sense when it comes to markets. Though the real winners, will be storage and that is an area that gets overlooked and will have an impact more than anything else in the year ahead.
dirtydroog 7y ago
I remember similar things being said about nokia
- chx 7y ago
  Nokia has found itself unable to compete in new markets -- previously the smartphone has grown up from the phone and the PDA but the new smartphones have shrunk down from computers and this was fundamentally different. Let's say the peak of Symbian Nokia smartphones were the E71/E72 -- the E72 and the iPhone 3GS were released practically the same day. By this time some 100 000 apps were available for the iPhone (and a bit more than 10 000 for Symbian but it was a fractured ecosystem, another fatal flaw) and cumulative they have been downloaded a billion times. But even importantly, Symbian has started as the EPOC, the OS of the Psion PDAs in the eighties and it simply was unable to function well in the new world -- you can patch a preemptive system only so many times. Android and iOS were built on bona fide Unix. No such thing hampers Intel. There's no new market here, just intensified competition and Intel has 7nm in the pipeline late 2021/early 2022, that's how far they need to survive on the venerable 14nm and the totally broken 10nm process.
Josephineus 7y ago
Different things could be considered "ugly". Will Intel find itself in serious financial trouble? Almost certainly not. But we are already seeing some deterioration in margins due to more competitive server pricing.

by chx 7y ago

Zenst 7y ago

Interesting and in comparison: Nvidia: 0.21 AMD: 0.17 https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/debt-equity-ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/debt-e... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/debt-equity-ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/debt-equit... Though as we have all come to learn, the market these days is more exposed to perception buying and selling over more robust analytical buying and selling. That and a little dynamic movement can easily amplify by automated trading and reaction trading. AMD can only gain traction in the graphics consumer market and that may well pan out, though much seems to be riding upon RDNA2 and that is looking like late in the year, this with new consols scheduled for end of the year and that was prior to recent supplier dynamics may well well see those slip into next year. We have seen the larger datacenters start to take note of AMD more and iirc cloudflare as well as Google buying some AMD offerings in more earnest. The time for those to traction won't be instant either, so any growth will be a while until measured. But AMD from most people you talk with, seem to be in a good position and it has been a while since they had that postition (decades really), they seem to keep that momentum going and have a path to do that. So even if they don't start to make fast inroads into the datacenter, they are slowly gaining momentum and Intel is loosing momentum. However, the recent supplier dynamics due to the recent human malware will impact all. So many aspects that make it hard to call, but however it goes, I don't see AMD nor Intel worried more than any other company. Though AMD may well be more exposed to supplier chain dynamics more than Intel and that advantage to Intel (having own fabs) can only sit in Intels favour. However, the real one to watch will be RISCV and also ARM and recent developments by Fujitsu with the A64FX (well worth reading about as very interesting) stealing the TDP crown. Things may well get very interesting, though in technology, it always is and that is why we all enjoy and love it. Also worth noting that the recent human malware will see a drive in working from home and that may well shift buying requirements for many businesses, which could see an increase in datacenter usage, though that will be at the expense of local buying. As always, many dynamics, but perception does seem to be more of a factor than any common sense when it comes to markets. Though the real winners, will be storage and that is an area that gets overlooked and will have an impact more than anything else in the year ahead.

dirtydroog 7y ago

I remember similar things being said about nokia

chx 7y ago
Nokia has found itself unable to compete in new markets -- previously the smartphone has grown up from the phone and the PDA but the new smartphones have shrunk down from computers and this was fundamentally different. Let's say the peak of Symbian Nokia smartphones were the E71/E72 -- the E72 and the iPhone 3GS were released practically the same day. By this time some 100 000 apps were available for the iPhone (and a bit more than 10 000 for Symbian but it was a fractured ecosystem, another fatal flaw) and cumulative they have been downloaded a billion times. But even importantly, Symbian has started as the EPOC, the OS of the Psion PDAs in the eighties and it simply was unable to function well in the new world -- you can patch a preemptive system only so many times. Android and iOS were built on bona fide Unix. No such thing hampers Intel. There's no new market here, just intensified competition and Intel has 7nm in the pipeline late 2021/early 2022, that's how far they need to survive on the venerable 14nm and the totally broken 10nm process.

Josephineus 7y ago

Different things could be considered "ugly". Will Intel find itself in serious financial trouble? Almost certainly not. But we are already seeing some deterioration in margins due to more competitive server pricing.