4 ms·

Looks the coming recession the editors at HN have been front paging for the last few years might actually happen. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17392859

Looks the coming recession the editors at HN have been front paging for the last few years might actually happen. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17392859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17392859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20371314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20371314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20654624 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20654624

smoyer 7y ago
I remember in the late 80's when things actually seemed pretty good - but all through Reagan's presidency, the press had been lambasting "supply-side economics" (and even his VP called it "voo-doo" economics). I can't say with certainty that there wouldn't have been a recession during Bush's first term without all the negative publicity but it certainly became a factor in his unsuccessful bid for a second term. The curious thing is that if you perform a pump-and-dump on one or more stocks you get in legal trouble. If you perform a pump (or more likely dump) on the economy as a whole, then you must be a journalist.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  No, the recession during Reagan's first term was because Volcker cranked up the interest rate to shut down inflation. It worked, but it hurt the economy in the short term.
  - throwawaybbb 7y ago
    Long term too. The bottom 50% of Americans lost all their wealth and went into debt to live since then.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
      The bottom 50% has almost no wealth to begin with.
    - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
      14% inflation wasn't doing to bottom 50% any favors.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  We've got pretty good evidence they were correct to criticize supply-side economics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment
eanzenberg 7y ago
If you predict a recession every year you will eventually be right
- paulmd 7y ago
  And on the flip side - just because the bubble doesn't pop this year doesn't mean your assessment of the fundamentals is wrong. The market can stay irrational for a longer time than you can remain solvent.
  - nardi 7y ago
    Credit where credit is due: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." -A. Gary Shilling
- egdod 7y ago
  I’ve predicted twelve of the last three recessions!
jdminhbg 7y ago
I don't think "the editors" are to blame here, but point taken on predicting 6 out of the last 1 recessions.
- H8crilA 7y ago
  Blame for what? They were very likely right (let's see how this unfolds, to be sure).
H8crilA 7y ago
Uhm, the yield curve inverts well before a recession and with a variable look-ahead period, typically 6-18 months before, so it worked as prescribed. All of those articles are actually spot on. If this indeed is a recession; we'll know a year from now because that's the typical delay in NBER's recession announcements.

smoyer 7y ago

I remember in the late 80's when things actually seemed pretty good - but all through Reagan's presidency, the press had been lambasting "supply-side economics" (and even his VP called it "voo-doo" economics). I can't say with certainty that there wouldn't have been a recession during Bush's first term without all the negative publicity but it certainly became a factor in his unsuccessful bid for a second term. The curious thing is that if you perform a pump-and-dump on one or more stocks you get in legal trouble. If you perform a pump (or more likely dump) on the economy as a whole, then you must be a journalist.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago
No, the recession during Reagan's first term was because Volcker cranked up the interest rate to shut down inflation. It worked, but it hurt the economy in the short term.
- throwawaybbb 7y ago
  Long term too. The bottom 50% of Americans lost all their wealth and went into debt to live since then.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
    The bottom 50% has almost no wealth to begin with.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    14% inflation wasn't doing to bottom 50% any favors.
ceejayoz 7y ago
We've got pretty good evidence they were correct to criticize supply-side economics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment

eanzenberg 7y ago

If you predict a recession every year you will eventually be right

paulmd 7y ago
And on the flip side - just because the bubble doesn't pop this year doesn't mean your assessment of the fundamentals is wrong. The market can stay irrational for a longer time than you can remain solvent.
- nardi 7y ago
  Credit where credit is due: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." -A. Gary Shilling
egdod 7y ago
I’ve predicted twelve of the last three recessions!

jdminhbg 7y ago

I don't think "the editors" are to blame here, but point taken on predicting 6 out of the last 1 recessions.

H8crilA 7y ago
Blame for what? They were very likely right (let's see how this unfolds, to be sure).

H8crilA 7y ago

Uhm, the yield curve inverts well before a recession and with a variable look-ahead period, typically 6-18 months before, so it worked as prescribed. All of those articles are actually spot on. If this indeed is a recession; we'll know a year from now because that's the typical delay in NBER's recession announcements.